NPC has relevant data to give INEC: Makama

I served as chairman of the National Population Commission for 10 years, which is the maximum allowed by the 1999 constitution. Since I left office in October 2011, I returned home in Jos, where I have been relaxing and reconnecting with old friends, family members and associates.

I was very surprised about the statement of the NPC chairman during the visit of the chairman of INEC. The 2006 population census was a very credible one that was nationally and internationally acclaimed. All the constitutional processes of conducting a census were complied with. If you look at the 1999 constitution and the NPC Act, the commission is expected to present the census to the President who will subsequently present it to the Council of States, made up of the President, former Presidents; former Chief Justices and all state governors. If they recommend that he accepts the census, then he would do so, if not, he would reject it, and then the chairman and commissioners of the NPC will automatically resign on that day.

For the 2006 census, the President presented the result to the National Council of States and they recommended that he accepts. He also followed an additional constitutional process which stipulates that he should lay copies of the census result to the two chambers of the National Assembly. This, President Obasanjo did.

If you may recall the European Union helped in funding the census, and there were benchmarks, so they sent eight monitoring missions to see if the commission was meeting those benchmarks. The missions were made up of experts like demographers, statisticians, cartographers and so on. Now the reports are there; we passed all those benchmarks. Apart from that, during the actual census, the European Union sent some monitors all over the country and they gave us pass mark. At every stage of the census our international development partners participated –from the preparation of the strategy document to the Enumeration Area (EA) demarcation, trial census, the census itself, data processing in the seven data processing centres across the country to the tabulation and validation of the data.

So how can somebody say there is no data to give INEC from the result of a census which has been accepted? Of course there is the relevant data that will be useful to INEC. They need the census figures to assist them in the delineation of federal constituencies, state house of assembly constituencies as well as electoral wards at the local governments.

The commission has all the data for INEC to use for the delineation of all constituencies. You have the population figures for all the states and for all the local government areas. The future projections are also there –projections for up to the year 2020. Before I left office, I sent to Mr President, on request, a letter on the projected population of Nigeria from 2006 to 2020. The NPC has the projected population of all the states of the federation up to the year 2020 based on the 2006 census and reckoned at a growth rate of 3.2 percent. And they can also make projections for all the local government areas. The only result which may not have been released, I am not aware if they have released them, is locality results, community-based population figures.

A locality as defined by the United Nations is a distinct inhabited place in which the inhabitants live in neighbouring buildings and each has a name and a locally recognised status. So quarters, wards or housing estates, within a town or city should not be regarded as locality.

But a village or town within a local government area can be recognised as a locality. The number of localities does not automatically translate to higher population as there are varying sizes. By the time we left office, we were still compiling a compendium of localities so they were not put in the public domain.

This level of population figure is very sensitive. I have heard that the chairman has condemned the locality list. But what we did was based on the submissions of the various communities; it is not anything that the commission imposed on any community.

We asked all the local governments to convene stakeholders meeting and decide on the names of their localities and it is based on such names, because if the people do not agree on the names and boundaries of their communities, and you release the results, that may ignite a lot of crisis because some people could think that you have excised their territories and given to their neighbours.

Unfortunately, some people have come to equate number of localities with population. There is no correlation between number of localities and population because a whole town could be a locality and one city can consist of 20 or 30 localities.

I heard that the chairman has condemned this and I wonder what has happened to the professionals that we left behind in the National Population Commission. Is it that they advise him and he does not accept or what? There are competent demographers and cartographers there to tell him what the concepts are. Besides, you cannot come out and condemn the product of stakeholders or blame it on somebody else.

None at all. Before I left office in October 2011, in fact as far back as July, I and other commissioners who were about to leave decided to recommend to the President those to replace us before our departure, so that there would be a smooth transition. I even followed up and met President Goodluck Jonathan and urged him to expedite action on this recommendation, which he did. By September (2011), all the governors had submitted their nominations, which were sent to the Senate. If I may recall, the new members were screened and confirmed by Senate around that time. But somehow they did not take office until February 2012. So when I left office I was not able to hand over to the incoming chairman. But I left copious notes for him, covering all facets of the commission’s activities. Now under normal circumstances I would have expected that he invites me, if just for us to know ourselves, to acquaint ourselves. This he never did up to this moment. I have never seen him. Apart from his photographs in newspapers, I don’t know him.

But to my utter shock, the first thing the chairman did when he addressed staff of the commission was to discredit the 2006 census. The most shocking aspect was that he said all previous censuses in Nigeria, a section of the country had been cheating other sections, and that I failed to correct that, and that he had come to correct that. Of course the inference is obvious, and it is shocking coming from chairman of an important body like the NPC even before he has sat down to know what is going on.

The inference is that he is going to change the current demographic set up of the country. It appears he already has that mind set, forgetting that the census we conduct in Nigeria is defacto census. That means you enumerate only those people that you see. So I think he should be careful about his utterances.

In census, every country decides the kinds of variables it wants to canvass, in other words the questions you want to ask. It also depends on the use to which you want to put those variables. Again, all these depend on the social set up of the country. Usually you have two categories of variables; the first are called core questions, and these are universally done. For example: name, age, gender and so on. Then there are other secondary questions that you may wish to ask. So it all depends on the country and its social set up. If a question or variable is likely to generate conflict or controversy in the country, it is better expunged; you don’t ask that question. You have to decide on a pool of questions depending on your social set up. This is very important. It is to be noted that the Rwandan crisis was partly triggered by the revelation of statistical records of ethnic nationalities (the Hutus and Tutsis). Eventually the crisis went even beyond the country.

For the 2006 census, we convened a stakeholders meeting in Kaduna for two days. The stakeholders were brought from the broad spectrum of the Nigerian society. And for two days we brainstormed and agreed on all the variables except two –religion and ethnicity.

So the stakeholders decided that the commission should take up the issue with the federal government, and the federal government decided in its wisdom that these two variables –religion and ethnicity –should be expunged from the 2006 census because of the potential crisis that they could generate.

You know how sensitive issues of religion and ethnicity are in Nigeria today. If you include them in the census, in the present Nigeria, and you say Christians are more than Muslims or vice versa, you can imagine the reaction you are going to have. Or if you say Igbos are more than Yorubas or Yorubas are more than Igbos, or the Benis are more than the Ijaws. I can give many examples, but especially the three main ethnic groups –Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo.

I am therefore very doubtful if the result of such census will be acceptable. Even if you follow all the processes required in a census, given the mind set of Nigerians… it is an issue of perception. So why embark on a project that is doomed to fail. If it was not feasible in 2006, how would it be feasible today if the political and social landscape have not changed for the better, if I may say so! I believe there is more religious and ethnic tension now than there was in 2006. So in all reasonableness, how can someone embark on such a mission in the circumstance? I will say therefore that if we include region and ethnicity in the 2016 census, that census will be dead at conception, not on arrival.

Census is the enumeration and collection of the demographic data of all the people living in a specific geographical territory within a specific time. You gather demographic date of all the people living in a country, for example, to include things like name, age, gender, educational status, occupation, and other questions that you decide to canvass. The purpose is to gather data to plan for sustainable development. For instance, if you want to build primary schools, you need to know the number of children of primary school age, so that you could decide the right number of primary schools to build. So, the major purpose of any census is to gather data for sustainable development. In the case of Nigeria, population data are also used for delineation of electoral constituencies. And population, determined by census, is a parameter for revenue allocation. In a de facto census, which is what we do in Nigeria, anybody who is in the country during the census period is counted regardless of his nationality, and anybody not in Nigeria is not counted even if he is a Nigerian.

As for you losing your nationality if you are not counted, I don’t know what the chairman means by that. Maybe he is suggesting a population register. I have heard something to the effect that the NPC would like to establish a population register. To the best of my knowledge, so far only one country has attempted that – India.

There are security implications of establishing a national population register in which you will have all the bio-data of individuals. I don’t see the NPC being the right custodian of such a register. I believe that such a register should be domiciled in one of the NSA or security agencies such as the State Security Service.

Anyhow, I don’t see why somebody should be denied citizenship simply because he was not enumerated during a census. It has not happened anywhere to the best of my knowledge. Besides, who has given the NPC the authority to decide who is, and who is not a Nigerian?

That’s a welcome idea. We had wanted to do it in our time but we didn’t have the logistical capacity. But it seems that when some people talk about Nigerians in the Diaspora, they are only thinking about Nigerians in the United Kingdom or Great Britain, Ireland and the United States; also in Texas and New York where you have many Nigerians.

We know that there are many Yoruba people in London, Ireland, in New York. We also know that there are many Igbo people in Texas, for example; but also there are many Yoruba people in Benin Republic, in Ghana, in Togo, and also there are many people of Yoruba extraction in Brazil, in Cuba, and in many other countries.

I want to however remind the National Population Commission that there are also many Nigerians, particularly the Hausa-Fulani, who are in the Diaspora. The Hausa-Fulani are found in many countries in West Africa, outside Nigeria. You find them in large numbers in Niger Republic, Benin Republic, in Togo, Ghana, Guinea, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Mali. In Central Africa, you find them in Chad, in Cameroon, and in Central Africa Republic.

If you go to North Africa, there are many Hausa-Fulani people resident in Sudan.  And if you go to the Middle East, you will find them in Saudi Arabia. So, I hope that if they are doing a survey of Nigerians in the Diaspora, they will cover the entire globe.

I can’t impute motive to that, but I was surprised to learn that the National Population Commission is asking for that sum to conduct the 2016 national population census. The 2006 national population and housing census cost N38 billion, and of this amount, our development partners, the European Union, contributed 48 percent while the federal and state governments contributed 52 percent. N38 billion, and that’s just about seven years ago!  I’ve heard that they want to do a biometric census and perhaps use the automated finger identification system, but no matter how you figure it out, this amount (N600 billion) is colossal.

I do not see any justification for it because the 2016 census has already done the framework for the census.  The enumeration area (EA) demarcation done for the 2006 census provided the framework for that census and even for the coming census. All they need is perhaps a little updating based on increase in population; they don’t have to start all over again. So, what is the reason for the colossal sum of money, unless they want to discard the gains of the last enumeration exercise just to justify what they are asking for?

If such money is approved and released, it will become the most expensive census ever conducted anywhere in the world. And this is happening within the context of other competing needs in the country: need for poverty reduction, employment generation activities, healthcare delivery, the general elections coming up in 2015 and so on. So, one would say that the request of N600 billion for the 2016 census is insensitive.

Now, there is an element to this particular issue. For every census the first thing you do is you develop a strategy document and cost all the activities. You then convoke a donors’ conference, and the donors who are mainly the development partners will look at those various activities and decide the ones they will fund.

So, the Nigerian government doesn’t necessarily have to foot all the bills. The development partners want to help so that the country can have data on which to plan for sustainable development and promote good governance. That’s why development partners come to help. It’s not to promote ethnicity or religion. If the NPC has not involved development partners, they should do so.

At the swearing in of the present members of the National Population Commission, the president talked about the need for people to space their children. He gave an example of the military. He said if you go to the barracks, you will find that an officer has just three children while lower ranks tend to have five, six or more; that there is need to space your children so you can take better care of them. This is the thrust of the President’s statement and I think Nigerians need to reflect and do something about it.

But instead of defending Mr President, the NPC chairman contradicted him, saying the size of the population does not matter, but the quality.

Family planning is very important. It is not population control but population management, although some people will say it’s a question of semantics.

Even those days, our forefathers who did not go to school spaced their children. They knew they had to space their children to be able to manage their families well. They were not giving birth to children every year.

I am surprised that in this modern age people criticise the principle of population management. Look at the way Nigeria’s population is growing. In 2006, the population was 140 million. By October 2011, Nigeria’s population was 167.9 or 168 million. By July 2013, it is projected that Nigeria’s population will be 177 million; and by July 2016, Nigeria’s population will be 194.8 million. And by July 2020, the population will be 221 million. These projections are based on the 3.2 percent annual growth rate calculated using the 2006 census figures. You can see how the population is growing rapidly. You can see that between just 2006 and 2011, our population increased from 140 million to 168 million. It stands to reason that we have to do something in terms of managing our population so that we will be able to give our children proper nutrition, healthcare and good education. So, the president has reasons to be alarmed.
During the meeting with the INEC chairman, the NPC chairman said some enumeration areas were bought and some were fake. How many did you sell?
That’s a very interesting question, but a very serious allegation. The allegation is totally false. In the first place, what is enumeration area demarcation? It is the carving out a whole territory like Nigeria into various enumeration areas (EAs); that is administrative units, each unit being compact such that a pair of enumerators (two of them) can go round quickly within the census moment. For the 2006 census, we decided to make estimated population threshold of EAs in urban built-up areas 500, that’s 500 persons per urban EA. In the rural areas, the estimated population threshold was 200 people.
Unfortunately, some people were of the mistaken notion that EAs automatically translate into population. Many Nigerians multiplied the number of EAs by the estimated population threshold of 500 or 200 and imagined that to be their population even before the census was conducted. As a result there were rumours of pressure being mounted on denarcators in some communities to create as many EAs as possible. But in most cases the allegations were found to be baseless. So if actually there are fake EAs, I expect the chairman to mention them. Again if EAs were sold as he said, then who bought them, and for how much?
EAs are the property of the commission and not that of any community. They are simply working documents, and means of dividing workload during enumeration.
Secondly, EAs for the 2006 population and housing census were drawn to scale and geo-referenced with longitude and latitude. You can locate them on the map of Nigeria from wherever you are. In demarcating EAs, you go to the field and use measuring wheels and go round the EAs and plot even the houses. You can carve out the enumeration areas in the office and go and confirm them on the ground.
Moreover, for the 2006 census, we used satellite imagery, which means you can see all the features of the geographical areas of the town or locality: a river, a bridge, a church, a mosque, a school, built-up and non-built-up areas, and if any need arises, you can go there and make verification. So, the enumeration areas used for the 2006 census are verifiable. For this reason, there can be nothing like fake enumeration areas.  
I will give you example. The EA around the vicinity in Olusegun Obasanjo’s town is called Olusegun Obasanjo Enumeration Area. You go to the NPC today, you will see it on the map and if you go to the field, you will see it on the ground.
He (NPC chairman) has also been saying the last census was not accurate, not credible and so on. When you talk about accuracy in census, you don’t mean mathematical accuracy. A credible census is one in which all the scientific methods of census taking have been done: you’ve done proper enumeration, area demarcation; you’ve done trial census, you’ve done the main census itself, you’ve done proper data processing, and you’ve done data tabulation and validation; all of which we did in the last census.
Again, census is a statistical exercise, where a 5 percent margin of error, plus or minus, is allowed, and this is universally accepted including by the United Nations. This is so because there is no exactitude in human phenomenon. South Africa in their census had 17.2 percent margin of error, yet they accepted the census. In the 2006 census our margin of error was about 2 percent. No census in any country is 100 percent perfect. There is always an allowable margin of error. So we should be mindful of this when we are talking about accuracy.
So if the 2006 census was manipulated as the chairman said at what stage was it manipulated? Was it during the census or at the data processing stage, or during data tabulation or validation? Let me say something most Nigerians do not know. I isolated some of the best professionals of high integrity to undertake the very important task of validating the 2006 census data. They were Henry Mbane, Henry Onimole, Chidi Arikwe,  Bolaji Akinsulue, and Maruf Usman Kolapo.
The only northerner among the five Nigerians is Usman Kolakpo from Kwara State. The team which consisted of seven members in all was headed by the chief technical adviser, Dr Jayant Banthia who was seconded to us by the UN and who has the experience of having been the chief census commissioner in India, a country of over 1.2 billion people. Then, we had an international census expert, Mr Harry Lode. These were the people who worked on the data validation. I took the extraordinary step of removing them from Abuja and from all external influences. I sequestered them in Obudu Cattle Ranch for two weeks. All their phones were removed from them. They were only given one occasionally if they had urgent need to speak to their family. We did everything possible to reduce need for communication with their family members. This was so that they could not reach out to people or be reached easily so they could face their work. The National Population Commission did not pay for this particular operation. It was funded entirely by the United Nations Population Fund to preserve the independence of the exercise. So, for someone to say the 2006 census was manipulated, he should tell us where it was manipulated.
The president did not even know the extra steps I took to keep the process secret, so that nobody could influence it, including myself. I told them nobody should tell me anything. I just wanted the result to come out as it was.  We did all that was necessary to ensure that the census was credible.  And it is to the eternal credit of President Olusegun Obasanjo that he never interfered. Obasanjo never called me, not even once, to ask anything about happenings during the census or what the result of the census looked like, but he always responded whenever we asked for financial intervention. Were it not for his intervention in giving us additional N2 billion, we would not have been able to do the extra two days that enabled us to conclude the census. And I must repeat that Obasanjo never knew any result in advance. The first time Obasanjo knew about the result was when we presented the report to him collectively.
With the benefit of hindsight, is there anything you did not do as chairman of the National Population Census that you wish you had done?
One of the things I wish we had done is the automated finger identification system. We intended to do it but we did not have the fund and the time. We were informed that INEC had it but we found that their system that time was down otherwise we would have used it. Now, the automated finger identification system is also used for criminal justice administration. All over the world, there are no two individuals whose thumb prints are the same, not even identical twins. It means that using the automated finger print system, if you thumb print a form 10 times, the computer will recognise only one and reject nine. So I hope the National Population Commission could now use the system to eliminate or at least reduce incidence of multiple counting.
What I expect the present National Population Commission to do is to improve on what we have done. Sadly, all that the present chairman has done is to condemn the last census and denigrate us whenever the opportunity presents itself. Recently they convened a retreat in Minna to review the 2006 census. They invited all the former directors of the NPC but did not invite me or any of the former commissioners. What was the reason for leaving us out if there was a genuine intention to review the 2006 census? If we had been there during the review, we would have explained where we made mistakes, because nobody is perfect, and they would have learnt to avoid certain pitfalls. During my time when we convened a similar retreat in Calabar, we invited all the former members of the Commission who were still alive: Professor Udoh, the late Makaman Nupe, Shehu Musa; Col Chris Ubokwe. They were all there and they made very useful contributions.
If they know everything, well and good, but they should stop condemning us for no good reason. If they insist on condemning us, they should create a forum in which we can talk to one another. Let such a forum be nationally televised so that Nigerians can watch and know who is telling the truth.
We have kept quiet not because we did anything wrong or because we are afraid. I believe that when you attain certain position in your country, you should be careful what you say.
There is a lot of perception about a census and the most important thing is acceptability; that the people see it as transparent and accept it. If you are seen to be partial and bias right from day one, your census will not be accepted. And he should know that there is no competition between him and me.  He simply took over from me and he should build on what I have done and even do better. If he doesn’t do better, then I will be disappointed.