Opposition parties’ long road to 2027

Since the political shift in 2015, when the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) just two years after its formation, opposition parties in Nigeria have faced a persistent struggle. Analysts argue that the essence of the opposition has been undermined, with no credible party providing an effective check or challenge to […]

Since the political shift in 2015, when the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) just two years after its formation, opposition parties in Nigeria have faced a persistent struggle.

Analysts argue that the essence of the opposition has been undermined, with no credible party providing an effective check or challenge to the ruling APC.

They believe that rather than offering an alternative government or providing constructive checks, opposition parties have been mired in internal crises. They have also failed to build a solid base to challenge the status quo effectively.

In fact, most analysts believe that it was opposition leaders’ inability to cohabit ahead of the 2023 polls that paved the way for the electoral victory of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

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Since then, internal crises within opposition parties have become the norm, driven by issues such as parallel primaries, suspensions of prominent figures, imposition of candidates, expulsions, party litigations, manipulated congresses, and disruptions of meetings. The parties have also faced violations of the 1999 Constitution, the Electoral Act, and their own party constitutions.

Recently, the PDP and other opposition parties accused the APC of fuelling crises within their ranks, alleging that the ruling party seeks to stifle opposition to ensure President Tinubu’s continued rule in 2027. The APC has denied these claims.

Since the 2014 coalition that toppled the then-ruling PDP, opposition parties have attempted several others but with limited success. The most recent is the formation of a new political platform, The Alternative, with a vision to secure power in the 2027 general elections. A former aspirant for the national chairmanship of the PDP, Segun Sowunmi, who is promoting the platform, said the emergence of the platform was because Nigerians are weary of the existing political system and eager for a viable alternative.

Before then, in 2018, the PDP formed a coalition with 38 other political parties, naming it the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) at a meeting held at the Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja. This coalition aimed to defeat President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC in the 2019 elections. Leaders of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Social Democratic Party (SDP), National Conscience Party (NCP), Labour Party, and several other registered parties attended the meeting.

However, the coalition failed to prevent Buhari’s re-election, largely due to a lack of democratic efforts to gain the support of Nigerians.

On December 6, 2023, the PDP, New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and five other political parties formed a new coalition. The parties involved were the ADC, Allied Peoples Movement (APM), SDP, Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

This new movement, called the Coalition of Concerned Political Parties (CCPP), was formed at the National Secretariat of the SDP in Abuja. Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, had urged opposition parties to unite in a bid to wrest power from the APC.

Setonji Koshoedo, acting national secretary of the PDP, who represented the party’s acting national chairman, Umar Damagum, stated, “This coalition wants to offer strong opposition for the good of Nigeria. Our duty is to offer alternative solutions to government policies.” However, since the meeting, there has been no further development from the coalition.

On December 12, 2024, the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) confirmed that it had initiated merger discussions with the ADC ahead of the 2027 elections.

PRP National Chairman Falalu Bello confirmed the talks at a joint press conference with ADC Chairman Ralph Nwosu in Abuja. Bello emphasised, “We have begun talks. We are not afraid of mergers at all. The PRP is the oldest political party today, and we have a history of successful alliances.”

 

Atiku and Obi’s Yola meeting

In the same December, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi met in Yola, sparking speculation about a potential merger between their groups. Obi was the keynote speaker at the 20th anniversary of Atiku’s American University of Nigeria, an event that marked the university’s 16th Founder’s Day.

Despite both politicians’ representatives denying any political undertones to the meeting, the event generated widespread speculation, especially after Atiku posted a video of their breakfast meeting at his residence in Yola.

 

El-Rufai’s alleged political manoeuvring

Following his exclusion from Tinubu’s cabinet, there have been rumours that former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai has been in discussions with political figures across party lines to form an alternative political force for the 2027 elections. Some speculate that El-Rufai may even abandon the APC for a new platform, possibly the Social Democratic Party (SDP), although no concrete developments have emerged.

 

Power-sharing rumours

There have been rumours of a power-sharing deal between Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi, in which Atiku would serve for four years, followed by Kwankwaso for another four, and Obi for eight years. However, Kwankwaso recently denied the existence of such an agreement, calling it a complete fabrication.

Obi also denied any talks of a merger or political deal with the PDP, NNPP or any other party.

 

Analysts speak on chances for opposition in 2027

Political analyst Jackson Lekan Ojo believes that opposition parties can defeat Tinubu in 2027 if they adopt strategies similar to those used by the APC prior to the 2015 general elections. Ojo argued that there are many issues under the current administration that the opposition can capitalise on, including security challenges, a struggling economy, and widespread corruption.

“If the opposition parties form a united front and focus on the failures of the current government, particularly the security situation and the deteriorating economy, they could resonate with the electorate. The key is to identify a strong candidate who can unify the opposition and present a credible alternative,” Ojo stated.

Yiaga Africa’s Elections Programme Manager, Paul James, however, believes that personal and selfish interests often undermine coalition efforts in Nigeria.

He commented, “The coming together of opposition parties seems to raise hopes for many Nigerians, but as the elections approach, personal interests, particularly over who gets the presidential ticket, tend to derail the process.”

Dr Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, believes a merger could succeed if opposition leaders commit to a shared goal for the country and set aside personal interests.

“If the opposition leaders can put the country’s future above their personal desires and agree on a common presidential candidate, they can offer a viable alternative in 2027,” Amadi said. “The next election could be a turning point for Nigeria, but only if the opposition rises above their divisions and focuses on national interest.”