Options before G-7 Governors

So far, half a dozen meetings conducted by different layers of the party have failed to resolve the differences between the reformist wing of the largest party in Africa and its decadent rump. As argued elsewhere, the PDP is in the grip of those who did not know how it was founded and a sizeable […]

So far, half a dozen meetings conducted by different layers of the party have failed to resolve the differences between the reformist wing of the largest party in Africa and its decadent rump. As argued elsewhere, the PDP is in the grip of those who did not know how it was founded and a sizeable membership has realised that Jonathan is no longer a presidential timber. But the thing that amazes analysts is the continuing denial by the old PDP that a serious crisis has finally beset the party.
The new group’s opposition to the methodology of running the party, the manner the party disciplines errant members, the way it disqualifies those seeking elections, its contempt for majority vote in elections conducted, all point to the possibility that  a splinter faction will emerge not only to protest against those infractions but to chart a new course for the PDP. The rejection of the election of the Governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi as chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum and the determination to stymie his administration or remove him, the snatching of party structure from, Murtala Nyako in Adamawa and now Kwankwaso in Kano and others that may follow, the disqualification of Sam Jaja and other signs that the presidential ticket of the party is being reserved for someone until he makes up his mind, are all bound to be challenged.
Clearly, there are irreconcilable differences between the Bamanga Tukur-led faction and the Baraje-chaired group. What then are the options for Atiku Abubakar, Governors Sule Lamido, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, Murtala Nyako, Mu’azu Babangida, Ahmed AbdulFatah, Rotimi Amaechi and Aliyu Wamakko?
First of all, these per-sonalities have to understand that mil-lions of Nigerians welcome the break-up of PDP. The party as presently led and constituted does not have what it takes to solve a single national problem. The party is not only inefficient but is being controlled by mediocre persons and anti-democrats who don’t understand the minimum requirements for civilised conduct and democratic practices. The rebel governors do understand the imperative of keeping their party in power and partaking in the economic gains it brings, but there is the moral question of how long the status quo will be maintained while the masses of the country live in squalor.
The Jonathan’s administration’s treatment of Rotimi Amaechi is something alien to democracy; its deafening silence in the face of Asari Dokubo’s provocative and distasteful statements against the existential wellbeing of our dear country demonstrates acquiescence; its inability to curb oil theft smacks of collusion or incompetence or both; its executive and board appointments point to nepotism and its orientation and direction wrong-headed. One of the options available to Kwankwaso and company, therefore, is to remain inside PDP and fight for reforms. Of course, their opponents will stoutly resist this in which case the two antagonists will remain at loggerheads until elections in 2015. If the factionalisation of the PDP at this point is still unclear to those blinded by ambition, the governors should gear their efforts toward ensuring that more members of the national assembly leave the old PDP and embrace the new PDP.
When they have sufficient numbers, they can then effect changes in the leadership, especially among the principal officers of the assembly and then it will be like the meeting of Allied Powers inside Berlin in 1945. By the time the Senate leadership is firmly in the hands of the anti-Tukur coalition, it will then drive the point home that there is a new political reality on the ground and this will be clear to all Nigerians and those who promised fresh air, but have toxified it. It will be akin to putting beside oneself a cane for the attention of a recalcitrant child; as long as the child obeys, the cane will not be used against him. In other words, they will come face to face with Jonathan himself.
From 23 elected governors that they used to boast of, the PDP, i.e. the old PDP is now left with 16. In his reaction, Chef Edwin Clarke has declared that the rebellion by the seven governors will not affect the electoral chances of Jonathan in 2015 because even in 2011 they failed to deliver their states to him.
Though the Jonathan’s obsession with winning the presidency is understandable, it should be borne in mind that if he doesn’t secure a working majority in the National Assembly, it will be very difficult for him to govern if he triumphs. As things already stand, Jonathan’s faction of the PDP no longer commands the majority in the Senate or House of Representatives. If the lawmakers in the new PDP begin to work in concert with the opposition as they are threatening to do, then the remaining one and a half years left for Jonathan presidency will be nothing but a nightmare.
The other option available for Kwankwaso and company is to convince additional governors to dump Tukur’s faction of the PDP and together take a plunge into the All Progressives Congress (APC). Kwankwaso and company need not to waste time propping up Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) or the so called Voice of the People (VOP) for the simple fact that this will take a lot of time and resources, in addition to fragmenting the opposition. Kwankwaso and company must realise that the opposition must close ranks in order to effect change in the Villa. The merger of the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party, the Action Congress of Nigeria and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance represents one great step in rescuing Nigeria from purposeless and inept leadership and is one single move morbidly feared by the Tukur faction of the PDP.
The merger brings together the electoral strength and superiority enjoyed by the two largest voting blocks of North West and South Western Nigeria. These political blocks can also count on victory in Imo, Edo, Kwara, and Adamawa, formerly in the Jonathan column. The block can then work towards splitting the votes in Rivers, Taraba, Benue, Ondo and Plateau. Certainly, the North East where the socio-economic life of the people has been disrupted owing largely to ambivalent and costly emergency campaign, can never elect the old PDP. The North West and South West merger of political strength can then neutralise the electoral recalcitrance of the South South and their South Eastern collaborators.
The South Eastern goat should read correctly that as soon as 2015 there may well be a different bearer of the palm frond. The defeat of the old PDP in the next election is therefore imperative and should be the preoccupation of every patriot.