Otedola projects Naira could drop below N1,000/$ as Dangote Refinery hits full capacity

Billionaire investor, Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could appreciate to below N1,000 against the US dollar before the end of the year, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity as a potential gamechanger for Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. In a post shared Thursday on social media platform X, Otedola described […]

Billionaire investor, Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could appreciate to below N1,000 against the US dollar before the end of the year, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity as a potential gamechanger for Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

In a post shared Thursday on social media platform X, Otedola described the refinery’s ramp-up as a historic turning point for Nigeria’s economic outlook, particularly in reducing the country’s long-standing dependence on imported petroleum products.

He congratulated Africa’s richest man and President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, for what he called a transformational achievement not only for Nigeria but for the entire African continent.

“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola wrote.

“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach.”

Otedola’s optimism is anchored on the refinery’s capacity to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily, alongside diesel and aviation fuel, volumes that could drastically cut Nigeria’s fuel import bill.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery had recorded a major operational milestone, with its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) production block now operating at full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), positioning the facility among the most advanced single-train refineries in the world.

The development follows the successful completion of a scheduled maintenance and optimisation exercise on both units, after which the refinery commenced an intensive 72-hour performance test run in partnership with technology licensor, UOP.

According to the company, the tests are designed to validate efficiency levels, confirm equipment integrity, and ensure that all operational parameters meet international performance and safety standards.

The achievement marks a significant step for Africa’s largest oil refining complex and, according to refinery officials, makes it the first refinery globally to operate its CDU and MS block at such scale in a single integrated configuration.

Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, David Bird, said the seamless ramp-up underscores the plant’s engineering strength and operational resilience.

“Our teams have demonstrated exceptional precision and technical expertise in stabilising both the CDU and MS Block. We are pleased to see them functioning at optimal efficiency,” Bird said.

“This performance testing phase allows us to validate the entire plant under real operating conditions. We are confident that the refinery remains firmly on track to deliver consistent, world-class output,” he added in a statement on Wednesday.

The CDU serves as the heart of the refinery, responsible for separating crude oil into key components such as naphtha, kerosene, diesel and other intermediate streams that feed downstream units.

The Motor Spirit block, which produces Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), comprises the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit and reformer — critical processes that upgrade gasoline components to meet modern fuel quality standards.

Bird confirmed that these units are now running steadily at full capacity, significantly boosting the refinery’s petrol production capability and improving overall plant stability.

He added that the remaining processing units across the refinery will commence their respective performance test runs in Phase Two of the commissioning programme, scheduled to begin next week.

With the CDU and MS block fully optimised, the refinery is expected to substantially increase domestic petrol supply.

During the recent festive period, the facility delivered between 45 million and 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily to the Nigerian market.

Now operating at full capacity, output could rise to as much as 75 million litres per day, enough to comfortably meet national demand and potentially create export headroom.