Party mergers and shifting landscape

One of its breakaway factions, known as the New PDP, which counts seven of governors among its membership, recently announced its merger with the All Progressives Congress (APC), itself an amalgam of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Top echelons of the PDP are publicly dismissive of this […]

One of its breakaway factions, known as the New PDP, which counts seven of governors among its membership, recently announced its merger with the All Progressives Congress (APC), itself an amalgam of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Top echelons of the PDP are publicly dismissive of this landmark development, but privately worry about the long-term consequences of a coalescing strong opposition and its implications for the balance of political strengths in the run-up to the general elections due in 2015. The PDP certainly has cause to be concerned with the departure of five state governors from its fold and the threat of more to follow. Down to 18 governors from 23, the APC has narrowed the gap with its 16 governors. And with the Labour Party’s 1 and APGA’s 1 the combined opposition is at par with the PDP in the number of states either camp controls. Of perhaps more significance is the merger’s potential erosion of the PDP’s absolute majority in the National Assembly, and in a way addressing fears of descent into a one-party state. The merger therefore represents a significant improvement in the capacity of the opposition, if they can unite, to challenge the ruling party.
Given the peculiar influence that state governors wield in the conduct of elections in their states, the merger could be a major blow to the PDP. In geopolitical terms, the South-West, with the exception of Ondo; the North-West and the North-East, both with a couple of exceptions, have come under the ambit of the opposition. The PDP is now left with its slipping hold over the North-Central, South-East and South-South where, even in the president’s stronghold, it will have to contend with a considerable loss of goodwill.
The shift is good for the nation’s political engineering, and a lesson in party management and discipline. The journey to the merger started ostensibly with the election of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, who many accused of having a “meddlesome, domineering and irreverent” style, as party chairman. The problems worsened after the debacle of Nigerian Governors’ Forum elections that produced two factions, one that has the tacit backing of President Goodluck Jonathan and Tuku’s support, the other threatened with expulsion from the PDP at harassed by security agents at gatherings they attend.
  The governors are at liberty to change their party loyalties because they are governors of their states and not the party; questions of propriety of their action revolve solely on moral grounds. Unfortunately however for the PDP, precedence is not on its side. There are many cases in which it encouraged elected officials of other parties to decamp to the PDP without losing their seats.
Losing its majority in the National Assembly would bring several problems for the PDP. The situation is worse than it appears because many politicians remain in PDP only because of the political office they hold.  The PDP may devise strategies to neutralise the effects of the merger, but these must not be extra-legal. Parties should play in accordance with the rules, lest their actions serve to heat up a charged polity.
Struggle for votes at elections should be based on winning the battle of ideas. The challenge for PDP is to accept the constitutional reality that even its members can hold and canvass contrary opinion, and ensure that the dividends of its transformation programme compete fairly with other ideas as the country heads to the 2015 elections. The opposition on its part must work to disprove the widespread belief, even disdain, that the decision to merge was based on ego and personal interest and the vaulting quest for power rather than the overriding benefit of the electorate and the country.