PDP’s rainbow dozen

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) must be getting new confidence from some foreign media and financial organizations that are hinting at, or calling the 2019 presidential elections in its favour. More discerning loyalists will not be so pumped up. Neutrals, if there are any these days, will disregard these forecasts on sound experience and knowledge […]

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) must be getting new confidence from some foreign media and financial organizations that are hinting at, or calling the 2019 presidential elections in its favour. More discerning loyalists will not be so pumped up. Neutrals, if there are any these days, will disregard these forecasts on sound experience and knowledge of the current state of play. The All Progressives Congress (APC) will of course poo-hoo the projections as jaundiced and even mischievous. Parties hoping to cause an upset as third options will feel dejected that they do not even get a mention in these projections. All Nigerians will note, once again, that foreign interests are placing themselves in positions where they can shape political perceptions around the outcome of the elections. The reaction of PDP’s dozen or so aspirants for its presidential ticket will be positive, and will intensify the scramble for delegates and maneuvers for advantages against fellow aspirants.

At first glance it may appear that a dozen aspirants from a party barely recovering from a devastating defeat and planning to take the nation back  from the ruling party is an indication of a strong resolve and wealth of quality of politicians available to the PDP  for the task in 2019.Like many first glances, this is deceptive. In the context of Nigerian political history, the phenomenon of an army of aspirants from the opposition lining up for the privilege of taking on the ruling party’s repeat candidate is routine. Under the circumstances, in which the nation is torn between a Buhari  repeat and an alternative to Buhari, every move by major contenders is significant. The fact that there are a dozen aspirants from the PDP running all over the country and running each other down with three weeks to their primaries is therefore of great significance.

You will be forgiven for thinking that the PDP has an irrevocable guarantee that President Buhari will lose the elections to any one  of its colorful aspirants, the way the contests are playing out. The party itself is virtually comatose, in spite of the wealth of issues it can take up the Buhari administration on at this moment when it is most vulnerable. It could be the case that it is waiting for a hero to emerge from its Convention and launch at a Buhari presidency with the destructive effectiveness that will peel away all but the most hardened of his supporters. If that is the case, it could be making a serious mistake.

First, even the aspirant with the best credentials to take on Buhari will need more than three months and a first class campaign to make a major impact on a platform that is PDP. President Buhari’s administration may be begging for replacement, but if the only alternative is the PDP, it will need an excellent candidate and a miracle to defeat the APC, such is the depth of sentiments against it in many parts of the country. Second, the party has no guarantee that the candidate with the brightest chances of defeating Buhari will emerge from its dozen aspirants. It is perfectly possible that any one of three or four of particular PDP aspirants will be precisely what Buhari will need to win a second term. Third, the aspirants themselves could hand over victory to the APC in the manner they contest against each other and react to losing. It is the worst kept secret that a second Buhari administration will pull out all the stops against political opponents, particularly those   who are suspects or have cases in court on corruption. Many of PDP’s aspirants may engage in that honourable Nigerian practice (with the fancy name of ‘anti-party’) of turning against your own party and candidate on election days in order to curry favour from a second Buhari administration.

Barring a miracle, the primaries would produce a candidate that is deeply scarred by political history, personal limitations, ethnic and cultural sentiments and gang-ups that will cumulatively translate into massive liabilities on Election Day. Atiku offends millions of Nigerians with the most distinguished element of his politics: his single-minded devotion to the pursuit of the Nigerian presidency. Saraki has all the credentials to make a good president, but seemingly ruthless ambition, a damaged personal image and sensitive ethno-regional politics will cost him valuable votes against Buhari. Kwankwaso has the most visible network of support, but his limited resources and poor relationship with key political stakeholders could cost him the ticket. Tambuwal represents a face of change, but he alienates large sections of northern political establishment, particularly in those areas where he will be most needed to effectively challenge Buhari. Makarfi, Lamido, Dankwambo and Bafarawa all have political experiences, but they will not match the political clout, intimidating war chests and the networks of the first four. Turaki reeks of the inner recesses of the Jonathan era and suspected links with powerful people around Buhari. Baba-Ahmed represents the loudest statement that the PDP could think outside the box, but he is in a party with very little capacity for thinking, in or out of boxes. Senators Mark and Jang will not even get a sniff owing to their faith in a contest that has been virtually ceded to northern Muslims.

Still, the PDP could produce a candidate from a process which does the most minimum of damage to the candidate and his chances of success against Buhari. That process should be in place by now, with deals, negotiations and sacrifices cushioned by concessions. It will benefit from a very reliable intelligence on Buhari’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as developments within the APC, itself never far away from the self-destruct button. The party will need to behave like one expecting a tough fight and victory over the APC, not the limp caricature lying in wait for the APC to hand over the nation to it. It will need to be more actively involved in relations between aspirants, and overcome the inferiority it experiences when it relates to its more intimidating aspirants. Developments within the party itself, particularly those involving disputes over tickets and defections will have a major influence on its candidate’s chances. The most important requirement for the success of the PDP however is the quality of the candidate it puts forward against Buhari. President Buhari can be beaten, but only by a better candidate and a nation united around the need for change. PDP and most of Nigeria’s elite say everything must be sacrificed to defeat Buhari. PDP’s rainbow dozen will determine whether this is just a wish or a vital necessity.

 

Jamila Abubakar wrote this piece from Abuja