Pity the lion with clipped claws

Alhaji Mamman Shata said in his praise song for Mustafa Danraka that we should not pity an orphaned lion cub because it can procure meat for itself. President Muhammadu Buhari is more than a lion cub. He is a political fully grown lion with the bushy mane, the fearsome eyes, the majestic gait, the heart-stopping […]

Alhaji Mamman Shata said in his praise song for Mustafa Danraka that we should not pity an orphaned lion cub because it can procure meat for itself. President Muhammadu Buhari is more than a lion cub. He is a political fully grown lion with the bushy mane, the fearsome eyes, the majestic gait, the heart-stopping roar and the total lack of reluctance to bite. Still, I have some pity for him on the occasion of his first anniversary in office because he is a lion whose sharp claws and dagger-like canine teeth have been serially clipped by the 1999 Constitution.
Think about how Muhammadu Buhari compares with an older version of himself in 1983-85. For one, his poor luck still holds. Buhari emerges as Nigeria’s ruler only when ‘condition is critical’, as Nigerians say. When he took over in 1983 the economy was comatose; rice and Omo had vanished from stores; many state governments were not paying salaries and the treasury had been stripped clean by Second Republic politicians who descended on it like termites. Thirty years, three and a half years in detention, a frustrating period in opposition, three unsuccessful and one successful tries at the presidency later, Buhari’s poor luck still holds. He told newspaper editors that interviewed him last Thursday that “by fabulous coincidence” oil prices fell to $30 a barrel just when he returned to power.
If his ill-luck had stopped at collapsed oil prices, Buhari would probably have been okay, but the price collapse came only after his predecessors in office had visited the treasury with the fury of a locust swarm. Suddenly his 1983 inheritance looked like child’s play. All that Second Republic governors did was to misuse security votes and fund their political parties with it, while ministers of that era were accused of inflating contracts and abusing import licenses. This time around, PDP mopped up money meant for wartime weapons purchases; diverted NNPC oil sale proceeds; mopped up CBN reserves and re-looted the Abacha loot. All of it was then channelled directly into party leaders’ pockets without the inconvenience of going through contract awards.
Buhari must be angrier now than he was in 1984 but he cannot do half as much as he did then. He cannot issue Draconian decrees. He cannot round up all the treasury looters under the State Security [Detention of Persons] Decree 2. He cannot institute Special Military Investigation Panels to probe them and must rely on the relatively ponderous police and EFCC. He cannot institute Special Military Tribunals to try treasury looters and must rely on the courts, in which he has little confidence. Today, Buhari cannot get anyone sentenced to an exemplary 300 years in prison. He must make do with a slap in the wrist five years’ jail term for stealing a billion naira. 
Buhari’s ability to react to adverse economic conditions is also constrained because Federal Government is much less overwhelming than it was in 1984. In those days Federal Government controlled all the banks; it owned the biggest insurance company, NICON; it owned most of the oil marketing companies; it owned the country’s only airline, Nigeria Airways; it had a vibrant rail line, Nigeria Railways; the ports were under its direct control; and it took about 72% share from the Federation Account. In 1984 the security agencies had no insurgents, militants or Biafran secessionists to deal with, only on and off Maitatsine zealots. To boot, the Federal Civil Service was in much better shape than it is today. That was why Buhari never heard of budget padding in all his years as a military governor, minister of petroleum, GOC of an Army Division, Head of State, Chairman of PTF or leader of three political parties. These days he cannot so much as send budget papers within the Three Arms Zone without them being doctored.
Buhari’s main political base today, APC, is a toy compared to his main political base in 1984, the Nigeria Army. In those days his orders were swiftly carried out; soldiers shot first and asked questions later. Today Buhari finds it hard to rely on the amorphous APC. He distanced himself from its reckless election promises, hardly relies on it to prosecute his programs and hardly regards its members as the vanguard of a new order. 
It is not clear what Buhari thinks of his cabinet these days. Unlike in 1984, there are no overzealous ministers such as Dr. Emmanuel Nsan, the Health Minister who responded to a doctors’ strike by sacking the Chief Medical Directors of all teaching hospitals and he appointed Military Commandants in their place. Buhari’s economic team of 1984 spewed out more innovative programs such as retrenchment, poll tax, rejecting IMF loan, closing all borders, counter trade, local sourcing of raw materials, consuming what we produce, banning flour imports, expelling Ghanaians, shooting cocaine pushers and even the Imo Formula.
I urge my colleagues on Buhari’s media team to seize upon one presidential statement and propound it to iconic levels, such as happened to Buhari’s 1984 statement “We have no other country but Nigeria and we must stay to salvage it together.” Was it wise this time around that the president’s supporters invented a slogan that encourages Nigerians to flee, masu gudu su gudu? What about an iconic television jingle such as Andrew’s? In 1984 everyone was talking about Andrew, who was on his way to the airport to “check out” because of the hard life in Nigeria. Since conditions this time around are not much better, we need another Andrew jingle to discourage Nigerians from shopping in Dubai, schooling in Malaysia, going to hospital in Delhi and holidaying in Spain.
Old Army General Buhari is instinctively averse to disorder, a fact apparently unknown to social media writers. The way he lurched on Boko Haram like a duck on a June bug, the way he looked the other way while the Army Chief shot his way through a Shiite road block, and the way he is threatening to visit the Niger Delta Avengers are all true to type. Those who are complaining forget how he put down a Maitatsine uprising led by Musa Makanike in Yola in 1984 and a similar one in Gombe in 1985.
Buhari has been unable this time around to change the naira’s colours, as he did in 1984. Maybe it is because money laundering has been invented and instead of hiding ill-gotten money under beds, it is now laundered in banks. Or maybe it is because such a drastic measure can no longer be done in secrecy. In 1984, even members of the Supreme Military Council did not know that the change was imminent. New naira notes were printed in UK, flown in by Airforce planes, and Idiagbon suddenly appeared on television, closed all the borders and airports and announced the currency change. In this age when government leaks like a sieve and a minister’s letter seeking to borrow money from a parastatal ends up on Facebook, how can Buhari do anything super secretly?
He is very concerned today that people should not say he is a dictator. However, a strong gale sometimes blows and reveals the leopard’s hidden spots, like his answer during the last media chat on why Nnamdi Kanu and Colonel Sambo Dasuki are still detained despite court granted bails. President Muhammadu Buhari is not yet a Lion in Winter. He is an alpha-male African lion charging at ravenous hyenas. But his claws and canines have been clipped by the Constitution, hence the difficult first anniversary.