Population alone will not make Nigeria grow

In the long history of nations, power has often rested with those who combined large populations with strong systems of production and governance. It is tempting to believe that sheer numbers bring influence. After all, countries with more people can field bigger armies, build larger markets, and produce more labour. But history shows that population […]

In the long history of nations, power has often rested with those who combined large populations with strong systems of production and governance. It is tempting to believe that sheer numbers bring influence. After all, countries with more people can field bigger armies, build larger markets, and produce more labour. But history shows that population is only the foundation. Without the right institutions, innovation, and economic direction, our high population numbers alone cannot improve Nigeria’s economic condition.

Let’s consider China and India. For centuries, these countries were the world’s economic giants. According to historical data by the late economist Angus Maddison, in 1700, China and India together accounted for more than half of the global GDP—gross domestic product, or national income. Their power did not come only from their vast populations. It came from popular trade routes, skilled crafts, strong agricultural systems, and states that, though imperfect, could organise society to extract and reinvest resources.

Then Europe came into prominence. By 1500, parts of Western Europe were relatively small in terms of size and population compared to Asia. Yet Europe advanced through maritime exploration, the growth of finance, scientific inquiry, and, later, the Industrial Revolution. These developments gave it technologies of war, transport, and production that far outweighed its modest demographic base. Europe then projected power globally, extracting wealth from colonies in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. This was during the time of Columbus, Vasco da Gama, the Tudors, Louis XIII, Leonardo da Vinci, the Medicis, Shakespeare, Galileo Galilei, and many more.

This was the Great Divergence. It was not just a short burst of luck, but several centuries of dominance, built on a mixture of innovation and imperial exploitation. Western supremacy was not permanent, but it lasted long enough to be considered a temporary anomaly.

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Today, the pendulum is swinging back. China has combined its massive population with industrial growth, becoming the world’s factory and now pushing the frontier in technology. India, though less advanced, is also building momentum with its young workforce and growing digital economy. Together, they are moving closer to the central role they once held in the global economy.

Now, let us turn to Nigeria. With over 220 million people, we are the largest country in Africa. The 2022 NBS data shows the age group of 0-14-year-olds stood at 91 million. 15-19-year-olds were 21.9 million, while 20-24-year-olds were 18.9 million. It is projected that by 2050, we may become the third most populous nation in the world. Yet our economic weight is nowhere near our demographic size. Our national income lags behind that of much smaller countries, and our global influence is limited. Why?

Part of the answer lies in our colonial past. Unlike India, which inherited a centralised administrative structure from the British, Nigeria was created with a patchwork. The British only designed the system to extract resources, not to develop an integrated economy. Railways and ports were built to move raw materials to the coast for export, not to connect Nigerian regions with each other. Education was limited, especially in the North, leaving us with a structural disadvantage at independence.

After 1960, we gained political freedom, but our institutions remained weak. Of course, we cannot deny the death of the Great Sardauna and his counterparts, and the civil war slowed our growth trajectory.

Instead of building on our population to create productivity, we relied on oil rents. The discovery of crude became both a blessing and a curse. It brought in quick revenue, but it also made the state dependent on oil rather than on the taxation of a productive economy. This fostered corruption and rent-seeking, weakening incentives to build strong institutions.

Compare this with China. Following reforms in the late 1970s, China made significant investments in industry, infrastructure, and education. It mobilised its large population into productive activity, turning villages into industrial hubs. India too, though slower, is now reaping gains from its investment in technology and services. Nigeria, on the other hand, has failed to turn numbers into assets. Our vast youth population faces high unemployment. Our schools and universities are underfunded, leaving graduates ill-prepared for a modern economy. Our infrastructure is inadequate, which raises the cost of doing business.

International targets have also fallen short. The investment boom promised by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), agreed in 2015, has failed to materialise. This is measured across the developing countries. To be fair, renewable energy rose by 143 per cent, but from a very low base. Infrastructure investment has actually declined by six per cent. Agrifood systems grew by only five per cent, far below the rise in global population. Spending on water, hygiene, and sanitation rose by 13 per cent, and health and education by 38 per cent.

But this cannot be argued for Nigeria as evidence showed our health workers are being poached by advanced countries, and our education sector is actually collapsing. In short, these SDG figures show how global promises often miss the realities of countries like Nigeria.

The lesson is clear: population is a potential, not the actual power. To catch up, Nigeria must break from the colonial legacy of extraction and the post-colonial habit of rent distribution. We must be disciplined, innovative, increase our human capital, be cooperative not indidivualistic, and build institutions that encourage productivity. This means several things.

Nigeria’s future depends on people, not oil. Education and health are essential—without them, our young population is a burden, not an advantage. Infrastructure must support production. Reliable power, roads, and rail are vital for industry to thrive. We need practical reforms. Transparent institutions and fair taxation are far more valuable than oil rents. Corruption and inefficiency must be tackled. Internal markets must be connected. Farmers and traders cannot prosper if moving goods across states is a struggle.

Finally, we must find our niche. India relied on services, as China focused on manufacturing. It must not necessarily be the coveted agriculture. It might even be technology. Whatever it may be, we must discover what we can do that can give us both comparative and competitive advantage in this fast-shifting world, given that a large number of working-age individuals are coming through the system.

If we were an ideal country, this is when brainstorming starts.