Presidency: Can North, South-west sustain alliance?

Since the inception of current democratic dispensation in 1999, there was never a time that the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) became jittery of losing the presidential election like this year.This development is largely due to the fact that there is now a political alliance of the major political actors in the two regions of […]

Since the inception of current democratic dispensation in 1999, there was never a time that the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) became jittery of losing the presidential election like this year.
This development is largely due to the fact that there is now a political alliance of the major political actors in the two regions of the country, the North and the South-west.
Prior to 1999, the North and the South-west had tried to forge alliances in but the attempts never materialised.
In the 1st Republic, the northern dominated Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) rivalled by the South-west controlled Action Group later sought to weaken the party by entering into an alliance with the Samuel Ladoke Akintola-led Nigeria National Democratic Party (NNDP).
Though the NPC formed government at the centre, the outcome of the alliance triggered the events that led to the collapse of that republic.
In the 2nd Republic and ahead of the 1983 general elections, Chief Obafemi Awolowo unsuccessfully tried to forge an alliance with the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) to fight the then ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Awolowo did not only fail in his attempt, but the NPN went ahead to win the elections.   
In 1999 when Olusegun Obasanjo was elected president, he had it so good largely due to the resolve by northern forces to allow the Yoruba to take a shot at the number one citizen’s seat, having been denied the position in 1993, when late Chief M. K. O. Abiola was apparently cruising to victory in the presidential election.
During the 1993 presidential election, which was annulled by the regime of former military president, General Ibrahim Badamasi Banabngida (rtd), Abiola collaborated with the northern forces and picked Ambassador Babagana Kingibe as his running mate. That turned out to be a good combination as the duo got wide acceptance among Nigerians.
But because the election was annulled by Babangida, who is from the North, many northern politicians in 1999 felt the Yoruba should be compensated, and so Obasanjo was left to contest with a fellow Yoruba man Chief Olu Falae, who stood on the joint platform of platform of Alliance for Democracy (AD) and All Peoples Party (APP).
After Obasanjo’s first term, he contested and won again in 2003. Still, with the support of major political actors in the North. That was the year that General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) first contested for the presidency under the defunct All Peoples Party (APP).
Buhari, despite his mass appeal and support base among the people, lost election that year to Obasanjo, mainly because most of the northern bigwigs were not with him and also campaigned vigorously against him.
Four years later, in 2007, General Muhammadu Buhari came contested again, but this time with not only a fellow Northerner but someone who came from the same state with him, late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua.
Again, Buhari, who contested under his old platform that changed its name to the  All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), lost to Yar’adua of the PDP.
Of course, many believed that Buhari’s failures during the previous elections were due to lack of an alliance among the major opposition political parties, especially the one seen to be dominant in the South-west, the defunct AD and, later, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).
So, when the 2011 general elections came, it was time to broker a major alliance among the opposition parties, but by that time, Buhari had left the ANPP and almost single-handedly formed the defunct Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), on whose platform he contested the 2011 elections.
Before the polls, there were talks of merger among ANPP, CPC and ACN, but that could not be achieved due mainly to disagreement among leaders of ANPP and ACN and what many said was a sabotage against Buhari.
The ACN went ahead to field Malam Nuhu Ribadu as its presidential candidate, while ANPP had Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, former Kano State governor, as its presidential candidate.
No agreement was reached among the parties until after the 2011 elections.
As part of efforts to defeat the PDP, the three major political parties came together and formed the All Progressives Congress (APC) in February 2013. Also joined in the merger was a section of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) led by Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State.
A resolution was signed by leaders of the different parties with Shekarau, representing ANPP, Senator Annie Okonkwo, APGA, Tom Ikimi, ACN and Garba Gadi, stood for the CPC merger committee.
Consequently, the opposition leaders applied for registration as a political party and on July 31, 2013, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) approved and registered the merged parties as APC, as they requested.
INEC said the merging parties “have met all statutory requirements for the merger, and the commission has accordingly granted their request.”
That set the ball rolling for the renewed alliance between the North and the South-west, which was seen as a major challenge for the ruling PDP.
The ACN, which was seen as the biggest party in the merger, controlled most of the South-west, including the economic capital, Lagos.
APC’s efforts to defeat the PDP were bolstered with the defection of five PDP governors to the party on November, 25, 2013. Their defection was followed by that of 37 PDP lawmakers at the House of Representatives to the APC.
The party continued with its activities and strategies on how to win the 2015 presidential election. Five aspirants indicated interest and bought nomination forms to contest for the party’s presidential ticket. They were General Buhari; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; Governors Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano and Okorocha of Imo as well as newspaper publisher Sam Nda-Isaiah.
At the party’s national convention held in Lagos on December 10 last year, Buhari emerged winners with 3,430 votes to defeat Kwankwaso who came second with 974 votes, while Atiku polled 954 votes and Okorocha got 624 votes. Nda-Isaiah polled 10 votes.
Buhari’s emergence, it was gathered, was the beginning of the renewed alliance between the North and the South-west, because many of his votes were said to have come from mainly the zone, which has notable people like Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is one of the party’s national leader, Governors Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun, Rauf Aregbesola of Osun and Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo, among many others.
With Buhari’s emergence, the party’s vice presidential ticket was ceded to the South-west and Prof Yomi Osinbajo, former Lagos State attorney-general, was eventually picked. This singular act contributed in many ways in Saturday’s election as the Yoruba people are said to be mainly concerned about ‘their own’ and what they get in the nation’s hierarchy.
Thus, the alliance paid off as the two major regions came together to confront the PDP against all odds.  A major concern, however, has been whether such alliances would be sustained given that both the North and the South-west have their varying interests.
The South-west just left the presidency in 2007 having been in power from 1999 to then while the north is said to have also held unto the reins of power for long.
Whether the APC wins or loses, a major concern would be how to sustain the political relationship.