PRESIDENT TRUMP: WHAT FUTURE FOR U.S-NIGERIA RELATIONS?

Yesterday, as Donald J. Trump was being sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, scholars converged on Mambayya House, Bayero University’s Aminu Kano Centre for Democratic Research and Training, Kano, to deliberate on the theme “Trump’s Presidency and the Future of the US-Nigeria Relations: Some Tentative Scenarios.” Chaired by radical politician Dr. […]

Yesterday, as Donald J. Trump was being sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, scholars converged on Mambayya House, Bayero University’s Aminu Kano Centre for Democratic Research and Training, Kano, to deliberate on the theme “Trump’s Presidency and the Future of the US-Nigeria Relations: Some Tentative Scenarios.” Chaired by radical politician Dr. Junaidu Mohammed, the lead paper was presented by another radical, Dr. Abubakar Siddique Mohammed, Political Scientist from ABU Zaria, and the second by not-so-radical Bala Muhammad, Mass Communicator from BUK (i.e. your Columnist).

The Seminar questions included: In the context of Friday’s Trump Inauguration, should Nigeria care? Participants were united that indeed, we all should, especially in the context that, had Trump succeeded, say, George W. Bush, the shock and awe of his coming would have been greatly mitigated by the fact that, having gone through eight years of Bushian Conservatism, another four, possibly eight, of the same (or a little worse) Trumpian neo-Conservatism would not have been so painful.

But in the event, and as it is, Trump is succeeding Barack Obama, a neo-liberal with mixed successes and failures; so the contrast between outgoing and incoming is starker than that between night and day or, to put it more correctly, day and night, former representing the former; latter the later.

But isn’t our worry not misplaced? Trump, true to character, has been busy fighting others – Trump vs. Everyone: vs. CIA Director John Brennan (“Is This Leaker of Fake News?”); vs. US Civil Rights icon John Lewis (“All Talk No Action!”); vs. CNN (“You Are Fake News!”); vs. Germany’s Angela Merkel (“Your Immigration Policy Horrible!”); vs. the EU (“Brexit Good, Others Should Follow!”); vs. NATO (“You Are Obsolete!”); vs. Car Manufacturers (“Make Your Car in Mexico Pay Massive Tariffs If You Bring It Here!”); etc.

A rhetorical but poignant question was asked: When will Trump visit Nigeria or, to make it plainer, will Trump ever visit Nigeria? Why or why not? Who knows? And who cares? In response to this query of Nigeria’s importance, or lack of it, in the comity of nations, the plain answer that came suggests that it is highly unlikely that Trump would ever visit Nigeria, whatever such a visit’s worth could be. After all, even Obama refused to visit Nigeria but went round Africa (North to Egypt, West to Ghana, East to Kenya and South to South Africa). But not to the Giant of Africa. Was that a reflection of Nigeria, or a reflection of Nigeria’s then leadership? Further questions.

There are several trumped-up quotes in cyberspace claiming that Trump has said something about us Nigerians or Africans or blacks. In actual fact, we are not that important. (A downer, that!)

According to Dickens Olowe of the BBC, several of these quotes, such as the following, are actually figments of the writers’ imaginations: “American Billionaire and Republican Presidential front-runner, Donald Trump, has shot a subtle warning to the Nigerian Community in the United States, after he said all Nigerians would be made to leave the country when he becomes President. He made the ‘threat’ during a rally at Wichita, Kansas.”

Olowe says both the quote and the event are fictitious. Fact-checking site Snopes says: “Trump did not have a rally in Wichita, Kansas, as alleged by the above-quote, at any point in January 2016.” And neither did he say  “Most of these African countries, who import everything, including matchsticks, ought to be recolonised for another 100 years because they know nothing about leadership and self-governance”. 

Stopes and BBC say that now that he has become US president, there are likely to be lots more of these false Trumpisms, so don’t believe everything you read. Agreed he did not say them, but participants at the Mambayya House Seminar are unanimous that these quotes, though painful, approximate our sorry state – and Trump may as well say them now or in the future. It is better, as Malcolm X would say, to deal with an open enemy than a hypocritical one, in reference to his ‘commonality’ with the anti-Black cultists, KKK.

Not that Trump could not have said what was said he said – the ‘Twitterer-in-Chief’ has helped everyone understand his mindset. He is the quintessential ‘Element of No Surprise’. He is not diplomatic, hence not hypocritical. Everyone can easily analyse Trump – his likes and hates, his temperament, what makes him tick. If he ticks at all.

Trump, throughout his campaign, was vehement about particularly Mexicans and Muslims, especially as regards immigration. So it would be double jeopardy, say, if the hated Muslim immigrant happens to be African as well.

Perhaps Nigeria’s first foreign policy reaction to a Trump Presidency was in a Daily Trust news story by Ronald Mutum where the Ministry of Foreign Affairs “described the rhetoric and posturing of US President-Elect Donald Trump as disturbing.” This was from the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Ambassador Sola Enikanolaiye, in remarks on a paper titled ‘Nigerian Foreign Policy: An Evaluation’ at the National Defence College. The ministry, he said, recently held a retreat to raise awareness and strategies on Nigerian and United States relations under a Trump Presidency. But none of the scholars at the Mambayya House Seminar had heard of that retreat.

So, is Nigeria ready for a Trump Administration? What are the possible implications? But for this opportunity offered by Mambayya House to interrogate our options, we can only end up speculating. Apart from the supposed MFA retreat, nothing seems to be scholarly discussed by other think tanks, especially the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), whose silence on the matter is deafening.

There are the hyperbolic 1001 issues Nigeria should be worried about with in a Trump Administration: Security (Boko Haram, the new $50m military base in Niger Republic); Trade (AGOA, oil); Aid (USAID); Economy (Corruption, Stolen Funds); Democracy (deepening and ‘shallowing’); etc.

Take the ‘Light Africa’ initiative, for example. Outgoing President Obama initiated this to bring electricity to 50 million people in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020 through public-private partnerships. Nigeria is a prominent beneficiary. How will this initiative fare under a Trump?

And then that ‘Collateral Benefit’ for Nigeria in the OPEC reduction of oil output. There could be many reasons why Saudi Arabia, after many decades of flooding the world market with cheap oil, will agree to reduce 500,000 barrels from its daily production of about 10m barrels. Is this decision related to an incoming Trump Presidency which may not be Saudi-friendly? Is this related to US Congress decision that Saudi Arabia could be sued, and its funds ‘expropriated’, for 911? Whatever the reasons are, this is a welcome ‘collateral benefit’ for Nigeria, as Nigeria now produces near its allocated capacity of 2.2m barrels a day.

So Ogunlesi (the Nigerian-American Trump Adviser) is in, and Soyinka (did he or did he not tear that Green Card?) is out. Things are not as simple as they look, but Nigeria’s chances with a Trump Administration, now one day old, could be 50-50 and, depending on how we handle the situation, it could turn out to be beneficial.

Let us all remember one very important matter – compared to the United States, the Nigerian economy is puny. For example, the 2017 budget of New York City (not New York State) is $82.2 billion while Nigeria’s 2017 budget of about N7.3 trillion is the equivalent of $23.9 billion (at the government’s own exchange rate of 305 Naira to the Dollar). Or thereabouts.

But the icing of the cake at this Mambayya Seminar is that hopefully, America’s jealousy with China’s ascendancy may fuel a Trumpian positive disposition towards Africa. But, then, who knows?