Proceed with caution in Mali

Last Tuesday’s coup d’état in Mali understandably caused outrage among African leaders and those of international agencies because it was a setback to democratization efforts on this continent. Mutinous soldiers arrested President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and Prime Minister Boubou Cisse. They then made Keita to make a brief televised address in which he dissolved parliament […]

Last Tuesday’s coup d’état in Mali understandably caused outrage among African leaders and those of international agencies because it was a setback to democratization efforts on this continent. Mutinous soldiers arrested President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and Prime Minister Boubou Cisse. They then made Keita to make a brief televised address in which he dissolved parliament and then resigned from office.

The coup was preceded by months of street protests in which thousands of people poured into Bamako streets demanding Keita’s resignation. They accused his government of mishandling the Islamist insurgency which has infested the country’s huge northern parts, of failing to avert economic collapse, of corruption and cronyism, and of rigging last March’s parliamentary elections in the country. The protest’s main leader was the Muslim cleric Mahmud Dicko. Mediation efforts by ECOWAS leaders yielded no fruits. Their mediator, former President Goodluck Jonathan could not work out a truce and even a visit to Bamako last month by five ECOWAS leaders, including President Muhammadu Buhari, failed to resolve the problems.

Nigeria’s government immediately condemned the coup in Mali. Minister of Foreign Affairs Geoffrey Onyeama called for the immediate and unconditional restoration of constitutional order in the country. ECOWAS, African Union, European Union, France, USA and UN Security Council all condemned the coup and demanded a return to democratic rule in Mali.

After Keita’s resignation, the coup leaders led by Colonel Assimi Goita said they intervened to avert chaos in their country. They said they were not determined to hold on to power but would organize credible elections within a “reasonable” time period in order to create strong institutions that would save the country. However, Foreign Minister Onyeama ominously called for reactivation of the West African Standby Force, indicating that military intervention was in the offing.

We believe this would be an unwise move. The coup in Mali, however illegal and unjustified, was brought about by a complex internal security, economic and political situation. As we have seen, many citizens poured into the streets to welcome it while opposition leaders pledged to work together with the coup leaders to organize new elections. Mali is already a boiling cauldron with Islamist and separatist insurgents in control of large swathes of the country. Military intervention in that kind of situation could complicate the situation and fracture or destroy the Malian military and further render it incapable of fighting the insurgents, who have even spilled over into Niger Republic and Burkina Faso.

Even the closure of borders and sanctions imposed by ECOWAS need to be reexamined. Any sanctions should be targeted at the coup leaders themselves and should not create further suffering for the hard-pressed Malian people. Besides, since the coup leaders have pledged to conduct new elections, it is wise to put pressure on them to do so as soon as possible. Insisting on restoring Keita’s government to power, as Nigeria and regional leaders are insisting, may not be the best in the current circumstances because it could reignite street protests and further chaos.

While it is important for African leaders to stand by the principle that undemocratic change is no longer welcome, they should study situations carefully before considering measures such as sanctions and military action. Malian opposition leaders have charged that West African leaders are more concerned about the effects that the Mali coup will have on their own countries than with the fate of Malian people. We urge them to find the right balance and to proceed with caution in this volatile situation. We should also remember that the best antidote to coups is clean elections and good governance, not sanctions and military interventions.