Pulse of the nation
Ask one of those “Nigeria experts”, they will tell you that Nigeria in late 2025 presents a picture of economic recovery and growth. The interesting thing is that they would be telling the truth too. Depending on context however, they may forget to tell you that this progress is set against a backdrop of persistent […]
Ask one of those “Nigeria experts”, they will tell you that Nigeria in late 2025 presents a picture of economic recovery and growth. The interesting thing is that they would be telling the truth too. Depending on context however, they may forget to tell you that this progress is set against a backdrop of persistent and severe social challenges, including high inflation and a significant poverty levels.
It is true that Nigeria’s economy is showing its fastest growth in about four years, driven by key reforms and specific sectors.These growth drivers include the oil sector which expanded significantly by 20.46 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, with production rising to 1.68 million barrels per day. The industrial sector also saw strong growth at 7.45per cent, while agriculture grew by 2.82 per cent.
The BAT government has implemented major reforms, including removing costly fuel subsidies and moving towards a more market-reflective foreign exchange system. These actions have been credited with improving macroeconomic stability and helping Nigeria successfully return to the international bond market.
We have also seen the dramatic fall of food and commodity prices across the country. I saw a video clip over the weekend with Eedris Abdul Kareem crooning in the background, “Seyi, tell your papa… country hard!” and with each drop of the beat, an image of a certain food item, together with before-and-after prices is splashed across the screen. These were the people-oriented dividends of Renewed Hope.
The economic hardship in Nigeria that followed the change of guard between PMB and PBAT has been a severe and multi-faceted crisis, marked by record-high inflation, widespread food insecurity, and a sharp increase in poverty that eroded the living standards of millions. While the government has implemented significant economic reforms, their immediate effect has been increased short-term pain for the population.
Almost overnight… the cost of living and inflation topped 34.2 per cent (June 2024); food inflation exceeded 40 per cent. Price of local rice rose by 153 per cent in one year. Removal of fuel subsidy basically sent consumer markets into meltdown. Following the liberalisation of foreign exchange market the Naira depreciated by over 100 per cent and transportation costs skyrocketed.
By 2024, over half (54 per cent) of Nigerians lived in poverty. Rural poverty rate was particularly at 75.5 per cent. By mid 2025, it was projected that 33.1 million Nigerians faced acute food insecurity in mid-2025. Throw widespread flooding destroying farmland, persistent violence in northeast and northwest regions disrupting agriculture into the mix and you have a disaster of biblical proportions. We kept hearing from elders how they have not seen such desolation in the 70 or 80 years they have been alive. It was that bad.
I think I read somewhere renowned author Chimamanda Adichie observing that formerly secure middle-class individuals have been reduced to begging, indicating a profound social deterioration. Many families were forced to operate on survival mode, adjusting their lives drastically… reducing meals, pulling children out of school, and pooling resources for basic necessities. The mental health toll, including depression and anxiety was significant.
The BAT government’s approach has been two-pronged, even if not from day one: implementing bold economic reforms while attempting to cushion the impact. After the government removed the costly fuel subsidy and liberalised the foreign exchange market in 2023, the Central Bank also raised interest rates to combat inflation. These policy decisions were encouraged by the IMF and World Bank as “necessary for long-term stability”… and, accordingly, the effects were devastating. Those responsible do not feel the pulse of the nation before making such very big decisions.
On the plus side, the government resumed a cash transfer programme aimed at supporting 15 million households, though its rollout was slow, reaching only 1.7 million people by December 2023. The IMF then, emphasised the need to scale up this safety net.
The path ahead remains challenging. Some positive signs exist, such as GDP growth of over three per cent in the second quarter of 2025 and a rising stock market. However, for most Nigerians, relief is not yet tangible. Those same “Nigeria experts” forecast that high inflation, particularly for food, will persist through at least the first quarter of 2025. The Naira is expected to remain weak, and the economy’s growth rate is below what is needed to significantly improve living standards.
But… with election season rolling in, it is expected that development indicators will improve and life will be a bit easier for Nigerians given the mission of the political class to quietly ease the polity into receptive campaign mode. This is not necessarily a bad thing though.
As the story of 2027 starts to unfold, the outlook suggests that 2025 could be a year of recovery, but this depends entirely on sustained reforms and disciplined policy execution. The election season will certainly affect the execution value chain. The positive effects of these policies are generally expected to become noticeable after about three years, meaning the immediate future remains difficult for the average citizen. “They” will certainly try to cook the books and the figures… but we must remain resolute.
Let every political aspirant understand the complex and challenging economic situation in Nigeria. Let every aspiring policymaker feel the pulse of the nation before setting out on the journey of remediation.