Re-2011 Presidential Polls: How the result may stand
Hon Wali in the said piece rated the All Nigeria People’s Party, ANPP’s presidential candidate coming fourth place among candidates of major political parties in the forth coming general elections. He based his judgement on what he referred to as key factors that influence voting patterns in Nigeria. There was no evidence of any fact-finding […]
Hon Wali in the said piece rated the All Nigeria People’s Party, ANPP’s presidential candidate coming fourth place among candidates of major political parties in the forth coming general elections. He based his judgement on what he referred to as key factors that influence voting patterns in Nigeria. There was no evidence of any fact-finding method he used to arrive at his prediction, no reference to accurate data collation that aided him to make his verdict but mere assumptions calculated from past experiences which the writer still believes are relevant in this 21st century!
Truth is, today, It is obvious that Nigeria’s voting pattern is likely to change. It is evident from last week’s elections that today’s voters are more interested in voting for individuals than parties. With that result, there is a tendency that people in the south-west might today be voting for a presidential candidate apart from that of Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN. To support this argument is the fact that the Labour Party was able to pool some senate seats this time around. Doesn’t this scenario point to the possibility of an upset in the coming elections? Even though one is not ruling out the possibility of a particular state or zone delivering block votes to a specific candidate, however, this may not actually translate into outright success for such a candidate as the electorate itself has severally declared they are voting credible candidates no matter their affiliations. This is due to their conviction that political parties in Nigeria today are all the same, and there are no apparent ideological differences to identify each by.
Besides, the Honourable member based his argument again on the possibility of running mates influencing voting patterns. He posits that Nuhu Ribadu stands the advantage of securing a large number of votes cast in the South-West despite being from the North-West because of his dual advantage of flying the ACN flag coupled with his running mate who is a son of the said region. However it is worthy of note, if ACN enjoys a romance with the South-West region due to Fola Adeola’s portfolio in the party, it is safe to deduce that the other two political parties will enjoy a similar sympathy from the region for same reason as the ACN. The ANPP and even CPC have picked running mates from that region too. Therefore, it is the likely that votes will sway in any direction in the presidential elections based on the running mates factor.
Moreover, no one should outrightly rule out the chances of ANPP’s Presidential candidate beating his other opponents in today’s general elections not withstanding last week’s results, until it is truly over. This is because the party, as one of the oldest standing in this present political dispensation, has roots in all regions. Remember that the party emerged as a result of an alliance between All People’s Party (APP) and a faction of Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the 1999 election period. In addition, the party’s National Chairman, Chief Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, CFR is a force to reckon with in the South-Eastern region of the country. Obviously, ANPP has spread its tentacles across the country for the purpose of achieving a national spread. It is a plus to Shekarau that as a Governor of the diverse Kano state, the ANPP presidential candidate has endeared himself in the hearts of non-indigenes by embracing them in government and offering those equal opportunities as the state indigenes. It is
on record that he appointed non-indigenes in his administration.
I will hasten to remind Hon. Aminu that if performance of candidates is a yardstick to measure their acceptability and by extention success at the polls, then the ANPP candidate has it all. Let me here again remind Aminu of how brilliantly Malam performed during the recent presidential debate that earned him more prestige and how more Nigerians attested to have converted to his cause. Evidence to this abounds and some of them were even placed in a Daily Trust advert of Monday 4th April edition which one can look up for erasure of doubts. But for anyone to believe otherwise is to live in self-deception. The mammoth crowd that always trailed Malam Shekarau’s campaign train wherever he went is a testimony to the changing trend of 2011 political landscape where more and more surprises are springing up. Needless to say, Nigerians are eager for change and many see Malam Ibrahim Shekarau’s intellectual credentials as the face of that change.
Thankfully, Hon. Wali himself agrees despite experiences of past elections “it should be borne in mind that each election has its own distinct campaign features that can be totally unrelated but which determines the election outcome.” The April 2011 polls clearly fall into this category, whether the PDP’s analytical hacks agree or not.
Malam Umar wrote from Maitama, Abuja.