‘Reality defeats arithmetic’,  Kogi ex-deputy gov rubbishes El-Rufai’s claim on Tinubu’s reelection

Former Kogi State Deputy Governor, Chief Edward David Onoja, has faulted former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, over his recent remarks suggesting that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would lose the 2027 elections based on “mathematical projections.” In a strongly worded statement titled “Tinubu, El-Rufai, and the Politics Beyond Mathematics”, Onoja dismissed El-Rufai’s prediction as […]

Former Kogi State Deputy Governor, Chief Edward David Onoja, has faulted former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, over his recent remarks suggesting that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would lose the 2027 elections based on “mathematical projections.”

In a strongly worded statement titled “Tinubu, El-Rufai, and the Politics Beyond Mathematics”, Onoja dismissed El-Rufai’s prediction as “chalkboard theatrics,” arguing that politics cannot be reduced to equations or whiteboard calculations.

Onoja recalled a similar experience in 2019 during the Kogi State governorship election when El-Rufai, then chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) electoral committee, projected that the APC would not win any local government in Kogi East.

According to him, El-Rufai went as far as jesting that his wife would vote for the opposition.

However, the results, he said, proved otherwise.

“Elections are not wristwatches, and politics does not tick to Swiss timing,” Onoja stated, noting that despite El-Rufai’s calculations, the APC won in key local governments and performed strongly in others.

Drawing parallels between geology and politics, Onoja argued that consistency, structures, and alliances—rather than numbers on a board—determine political victories.

He credited President Tinubu’s resilience and strategic grassroots networks for his 2023 win and expressed confidence that the same dynamics would play out in 2027.

While acknowledging El-Rufai’s contributions to the APC as a co-founder, two-term governor, and strong advocate for Tinubu in 2023, Onoja cautioned him against predictions that could “destroy the very house he helped to build.”

“Politics will remember him more for being a co-founder and sustainer of the APC than for wristwatch wagers and whiteboard projections that dismiss the very processes that once worked in his favor,” Onoja said.

He concluded that in Nigerian politics, “reality defeats arithmetic.”