Rebased GDP and what to Expect

By Abdulmalik Ajiwa In a matter of days, Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the long-awaited rebased GDP figures, updating our national economic data for the first time since 2014. If precedent is any guide, the numbers are expected to be significantly larger. Nigeria may once again reclaim its position as Africa’s largest […]

By Abdulmalik Ajiwa

In a matter of days, Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the long-awaited rebased GDP figures, updating our national economic data for the first time since 2014. If precedent is any guide, the numbers are expected to be significantly larger. Nigeria may once again reclaim its position as Africa’s largest economy, overtaking South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco, just as it did in 2014.

But what does this mean for the average citizen, and indeed for the government?

Understanding GDP Rebasing

GDP rebasing is a statistical exercise that updates the base year used to measure the size and structure of a country’s economy. Nigeria’s current base year is 2010, a time when many of today’s economic activities barely existed or were in their infancy. Think of fintech platforms like Opay, subscription services like Netflix, digital marketing, accelerated real estate development, logistics services, etc. These sectors, according to analysts, now contribute significantly to the economy but remain uncaptured in national statistical figures.

The upcoming rebase will shift the base year to a more recent period,likely between 2018 and 2022 and will recalculate the economy using broader sectoral coverage.

It’s important to clarify, however, that whatever figures emerge won’t mean Nigeria has suddenly become richer. Rather, we’ll have a clearer picture of what was already there but previously unaccounted for.

The implication is that GDP rebasing would, among other things, lead to better policymaking. A more accurate GDP helps policymakers identify growth sectors and allocate resources more efficiently to the critical areas that need them, providing a clearer map for navigating economic challenges.

It also has implications for improved global ratings. A higher GDP will definitely improve Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio a key metric watched by lenders, investors, and credit rating agencies. This could enhance Nigeria’s standing in global institutions like the IMF, AfDB, and AfCFTA.

Yet another implication is that it will boost investor confidence. International investors rely on data, not just political rhetoric. A rebased GDP will project Nigeria as a more diversified and potentially more profitable market, boosting foreign investment interest.

It will also align with the government’s reform undertaken agenda . The newly increased GDP figures will align with the Tinubu administration’s reforms of removal of fuel subsidies, unifying exchange rates, attracting foreign capital, and expanding tax revenue. It will definitely provide the fiscal space to situate these tough decisions and strengthen the case for private sector-led growth.

More importantly, should the new figures highlight increased contributions from agriculture, ICT, and the creative industries, it would reinforce the government’s push to pay more attention to those areas.

For the citizens , let’s not be carried away. A larger GDP doesn’t mean life will get better overnight. It won’t stop the naira from weakening, halt inflation, or fix electricity and security issues. It won’t bring down the cost of rice, school fees, or transport. Rebasing GDP is like adjusting your weighing scale, it tells you your correct weight, but it doesn’t do the workout for you.

What government must do therefore instead is to allow the new figures to mark a turning point in our national life. It must inspire better planning and drive economic policies grounded in today’s realities. Public spending should be better tailored toward infrastructure, education, and innovation. It could also help promote data literacy within government, the media, and the wider public.9

Ultimately, the rebased GDP will offer a more honest path for the Nigerian economy. Whether this exercise becomes just another data update or a true step toward shared prosperity will depend entirely on how we use the numbers.