Referendum: High hopes, fears as South Sudan decides today

After its 55th independence characterised by endless bloodletting, displacement and staggering humanitarian crises, the about three million eligible voters in Southern Sudan, will today come out en mass and decide whether to remain in a united Sudan or become an independent country through secession in a historic referendum. From the faces of the voters, it […]

After its 55th independence characterised by endless bloodletting, displacement and staggering humanitarian crises, the about three million eligible voters in Southern Sudan, will today come out en mass and decide whether to remain in a united Sudan or become an independent country through secession in a historic referendum. From the faces of the voters, it is clear that they may end up voting for the latter.

For the secession option to hold, the people of Southern Sudan must get 60 percent of the total registered voters as provided for in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Act 2009. This same document drafted and adopted by the Khartoum-based National Congress Party (NCP) and the Juba-based Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Kenya in 2005, paved way for a ceasefire as well as the on-going referendum.

If the southerners choose secession, Khartoum will lose a great source of income as the south will definitely take along about 80 percent of the country’s oil revenue. Also, over 50, 000 southerners working in various security outfits in the north will leave their jobs and go back to their ancestral land. Despite the expected huge revenue, the new government that may emerge may not ably handle this issue, not in the near future.

Succession may bring about new problems that include tensions likely to be occasioned by border delineation, oil revenue sharing, assets and liability sharing, existing foreign bilateral agreements, among others. As voting get underway this morning, most of the voters seem not to be thinking over this issue, perhaps not now.

Voting amidst tight security: A conspicuous common denominator between the Southern Sudan and the North is the level of security preparedness ahead of the voting.  Sunday Trust observed that both Juba and some 10 major cities in the south; as well as Khartoum and other northern cities have been beefed up with security. There is a heavy presence of the military, the police and armoured tanks in the streets of these cities to ensure peaceful polling.

In Juba for instance, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) has deployed more than 80 armoured vehicles that can be seen visibly roaming the streets. A police officer told this reporter that the high level of security presence is aimed at securing the areas for a peaceful plebiscite.

The GoSS’s Minister of Internal Affairs, Gier Chuang Aluong told journalists that his ministry has deployed large numbers of police to the 10 states in the region for the referendum. It was gathered that over 60, 000 police officers have been deployed in the region so far.

Similarly, the Governor of Khartoum State, Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Khindir said recently that he wouldn’t   allow lawbreakers to threaten security in the capital city. He said that Khartoum has set up plan in cooperation with security institutions in addition to the police force to meet all types of intimidations expected to be witnessed during voting.

The governor indicated that there are more than 600 stations of comprehensive security in Khartoum which are being provided with logistic supports. The Khartoum Police Chief, Mohammed Al-Hafiz declared last week that over 17, 000 policemen have been deployed to secure the over 80 polling stations for the referendum.

The police force has reiterated its commitment to respond to all expected violations, hinting that they have made adequate preparations to handle political groups bent on staging demonstrations during the referendum.

 

Looming humanitarian crisis: As the voting starts today across South Sudan, there are also concerns for the imminent humanitarian crisis rocking the region as a result of the exodus of the Sudanese of southern extraction back to their ancestral region in the last couple of weeks.

As a result of the poor healthcare system and congestion occasioned by the influx, World Health Organisation (WHO) declared that there would be widespread outbreak of visceral leishmaniasis, a disease that can be lethal and endemic in parts of the greater Upper Nile.

The disease, also known as kala-azar, according to the medical officer with the WHO Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response team in Southern Sudan, Abdilnasir Abubakar, comes in various forms and can manifest itself in skin sores, it becomes severe when the parasites migrates to the vital parts.

“The returnees may negatively impact on kala-azar outbreak…  they don’t have immunity. This may exacerbate the outbreak and extend the duration,” he said. He said that by the end of November last year, some 9,885 new cases 384 deaths had been reported from 17 treatment centres in four states, with most cases being children under 17.

Malnutrition and displacement due to failed harvests as well as flooding are among other factors the disease. Sunday Trust learnt that the disease is transmitted through the bite of an infected sand fly.  The vector thrives in the crevices of mud plastered houses, cow dung heaps, rat burrows and bushes.

With the exodus of over a million Southern Sudanese from the Northern parts of the country since October last year, coupled with absence of infrastructure, lack of portable water, poverty  and personal hygiene that characterised the region, experts are of the view the situation may worsen.

Sunday Trust observed that the condition of the indigenes of Southern Sudan in the last three months is worsening despite assurances by the political class in the region as well as efforts of the international community, notably the United Nations in resettling them. It is apparent that with poor finances and organisation, the GoSS has failed to deliver in offering the desired necessities to the returnees.

The transportation of the returnees, which is coordinated by the UN and the Southern Sudan authorities failed recently leaving hundreds of people stranded at the buffer zone between the north and the south. “It is really a humanitarian crisis. Apart from its political niceties, the authorities have underrated the situation. The result is the crisis looming now,” a UN official told this reporter in Khartoum.

Carter, Clinton, Annan to monitor referendum: The referendum has attracted hordes of observers and prominent individuals from across the world. The African Union (AU), which played a key role in setting in motion the process which brought about the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and its eventual approval in Nairobi, Kenya in 2005; has sent a high-powered delegation to the Sudan for the referendum.

The African Union High Implementation Panel (AUHIP) headed by former South African president Thabo Mbeki is in Sudan for the referendum. Among the members of AUHIP members already in the Sudan is former Nigerian Head of State, General AbdulSalami Abubakar, former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan and former Tanzanian Prime Minister, Joseph Warioba are, also being expected in the country for the historic event.

Similarly, in an arrival statement released yesterday by the AU Observer Mission to the Southern Sudan Referendum, the Chairperson of the Commission of AU, His Excellency Jean Ping has dispatched a 110- member observer mission to the Sudan to observe the plebiscite under the leadership of Dr. Victor Tonchi, Chairperson of the National Electoral Commission of Namibia.

Also, a high-level United States delegation was expected to arrive Sudan yesterday for the referendum, a semi-official Sudan Media Centre said. The delegation is headed by the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. Also in the delegation is the former US Secretary of State Colin Powell as well as the former US special envoy to the Sudan, John Danforth.

Earlier, the US’s Envoy to the Sudan, Scott Gration was in Sudan ahead of this visit. He was accompanied by his senior assistants, Mr. Lyman, chief negotiator in addition to the in charge of the negotiations of the two partners and Mr. Dan Smith, the Special Envoy to Sudan’s Advisor for Darfur Affairs. Former Democratic presidential aspirant, Senator John Kerry has been in Sudan for the event.

Former US President Jimmy Carter was also in Sudan last week. He arrived the country with the team of over 100-member international observation delegation from the Carter Centre for Democracy. He has been evaluating the preparatory aspects of the referendum.

Only last month, the Carter Centre Sudan Democracy Programme Field Director, Sanne Van Den Bergh signed a memorandum of understanding with the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC); where he expressed their readiness to observe the various phases of the referendum, ascertaining their willingness to offer all assistance and support.

Not only that, the Arab States League’s Assistant Secretary General for Information and Communication Affairs, Ambassador Mohammed Khamleishi has arrived the Sudan, leading the  Arab League mission for monitoring the Southern Sudan referendum.  The delegation comprises of 88 monitors with expertise on elections and referendum monitoring.