Rift traceable to ‘Abba Tsaya da kafar ka’ movement – Analyst

In this interview, a political analyst, Dr Kabiru Sufi, examines the emerging speculation around the relationship between NNPP national leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. He speaks on what may have triggered the rift, whether it is political or personal, and the possible implications for Kano politics ahead of […]

In this interview, a political analyst, Dr Kabiru Sufi, examines the emerging speculation around the relationship between NNPP national leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. He speaks on what may have triggered the rift, whether it is political or personal, and the possible implications for Kano politics ahead of 2027.

 

What really triggered the rift?

Well, I think the relationship between the two is so close that, for now, we can only speculate. However, speculation that all was not well between them started over a year ago. One of the early signs was the emergence of the ‘Abba Tsaya da kafar ka’ movement, where some politicians within the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya movement began calling on Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to assert himself and be “his own man.”

That movement did not arise in a vacuum. Those who initiated it appeared to be aware that there were underlying issues between the governor and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement. Although the governor later dissociated himself from the movement, there were casualties. One notable example was the former Secretary to the State Government, who many believed was dropped for openly backing the ‘Abba Tsaya da kafar ka’ campaign.

Additionally, the defection of figures like Senator Kawu Sumaila and some House of Representatives members from NNPP to the APC further fuelled speculation. Their supporters argued that these politicians were aware of an emerging rift between the governor and Kwankwaso before they left the party.

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Minor cabinet reshuffles within the state government also contributed to the narrative. It was widely believed that many appointees were not originally the governor’s choices, and whenever reshuffles occurred, they were interpreted as attempts by the governor to take firmer control of his administration.

Although the governor repeatedly assured the public of his loyalty to Kwankwaso, these speculations kept resurfacing. The most recent trigger was Kwankwaso’s public declaration that the seats of the two deceased members of the Kano State House of Assembly would automatically go to their sons. Many felt such an announcement should have come from the governor, and this reportedly angered those close to him.

Shortly after, events began unfolding that suggested the possibility of the governor moving to the APC without Kwankwaso’s blessing. All these have remained largely speculative, as both leaders have kept their positions close to their chests.

 

Is the relationship between the godfather and the godson breaking down?

At their level, it is difficult to clearly separate fact from speculation. What is evident is that there are strong indications of strain. However, neither Kwankwaso nor Governor Yusuf has openly declared a breakdown in their relationship.

They are not just political allies; they are also in-laws, which adds another layer to their bond. That affinal relationship goes beyond politics, and there is no clear evidence that it has been affected. Still, if a political separation occurs, it will almost certainly have implications for their broader relationship.

 

Are they falling out politically or personally, or both?

Primarily, it is political. At this level of politics, personal and political issues often overlap, but the core of the tension appears to be political control, influence, and future alignment.

The personal relationship especially their family ties seem intact for now. However, history shows that prolonged political conflict can eventually strain personal bonds. So, while it is largely political at this stage, personal consequences may follow if the rift deepens.

 

What does this mean for Kano politics?

It could mark a new chapter in Kano politics, though not an entirely unfamiliar one. Kano has a history of political fallouts between godfathers and their protégés. A clear example is the breakdown between Kwankwaso and his former deputy, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, shortly after Ganduje became governor.

If Kwankwaso remains in the NNPP or moves to another platform like the ADC, while Governor Yusuf aligns with the APC, it could signal a major realignment. This would likely split the Kwankwasiyya movement and reshape loyalties across the state.

In such a scenario, Kano could witness the emergence of two or even three strong rival political blocs—APC, ADC and possibly NNPP—making the contest ahead of 2027 extremely competitive. Much will depend on how events unfold in the next few weeks and months, including whether there will be mass defections and how comfortable the APC will be with a powerful governor entering its fold.

Ultimately, how Kwankwaso and Governor Yusuf manage this situation will determine whether Kano politics moves towards greater fragmentation or a new balance of power as preparations for the 2027 elections gather momentum.