Sambo vs Osinbajo: How The Pdp, Apc Running Mates Will Influence Voting in 2015

For the first time since the return to democratic rule in 1999, the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to be stretched to the limit as Gen Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), enjoying his most popular democratic support ever since he began contesting for election in […]

For the first time since the return to democratic rule in 1999, the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to be stretched to the limit as Gen Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), enjoying his most popular democratic support ever since he began contesting for election in 2003, confronts PDP’s President Goodluck Jonathan.
The two formidable candidates are not unaware of the dynamics in elections in Nigeria and the influence their running mates would need to bring to the polling booth to effect victory. This is moreso imperative in the APC, which was confronted with a delicate balance of certain sentiments as it strove to explore the right running mate appeal.
For the 2015 election, President Jonathan had, on December 10, announced he was sticking with his same deputy, Vice President Namadi Sambo, resting speculation he would do away with the former Kaduna State governor he had first picked as his running mate in 2011.
But it wasn’t so effortless at the APC end to pick a running mate for Buhari.  A week after Buhari emerged APC’s flagbearer, the party’s leaders were still engaged in a rigorous sift of the shortlist on their hand.  
Osinbajo’s strengths, weaknesses
Having decided to pick Buhari’s running mate from the Southwest, the APC leaders finally settled for Professor Yemi Osinbajo, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), who was Lagos State Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice from 1999-2007 when Tinubu was governor. Buhari admitted it was no easy task settling for Osinbajo as the choice for his running mate. “The method employed in this choice was quite meticulous but rigorous. It involved the establishment of objective criteria, broad consultations with party leaders and a few opinion leaders outside the party, and interactions with a number of nominees to assist me in this great task of securing Nigeria’s future,” he explained.
APC’s National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Muhammed added, “We must confess that the choice was a tough one, considering the array of eminently qualified and outstanding candidates that we had to choose from. Yes, we were spoilt for choice but, in the end, we picked as running mate a man whose pedigree – nationally, sub-regionally, regionally and globally – attests to the fact that our party, the APC, is a repository of high quality leadership materials.”   
The physical stature of the selected running mate matches his political profile: short. However, whatever Osinbajo lacks in political clout is expected to be offset by the political weight of national and regional leaders of the APC, especially by Buhari in the North, Tinubu in the South-West, Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi in the South-South and Governor Rochas Okorocha in the South-East.            
Again, Osibajo balances his diminutive frame with intimidating academic, professional and career credentials, and more importantly, a Christian religious bent, all of which won him Buhari and other APC leaders’ approval as just the right running mate they sought. Introducing his running mate, Gen Buhari described him as “a friend of the less privileged, compassionate and zealous in service, a man of common humility, and a loyal, dependable and selfless patriot.”
During the period of his public service in Lagos State, Osinbajo commenced the Lagos State justice reform project. A prominent feature of that project was the establishment of the Directorate for Citizens’ Rights (DCR), which provides free legal services and legal representation to indigent citizens of the state.
From the Citizens’ Rights directorate came the birth of the Office of the Public Defender (OPD) and Citizens Mediation Centre (CMC), which are now autonomous of the directorate. These initiatives gave a voice to many people who would otherwise not have a way to access their rights.
Osinbajo’s associates described him as a dogged fighter. As justice commissioner in the Tinubu administration, Osinbajo was credited with the deft handling of the case on the withholding, by the Chief Olusegun Obasanjo administration, of allocations to local government councils in Lagos State over creation of 37 Local Government Development Areas in the state. The battle was settled at the Supreme Court in favour of the Lagos State government.
A senior partner in the law firm of SimmonsCooper Partners, Osinbajo served as the Special Adviser to Nigeria’s Attorney-General and Minister of Justice between 1988 and 1992.
Prior to his appointment into the Lagos State public service, Osinbajo, a Professor of Law, was the Head of Public Law at the Faculty of Law, University of Lagos between 1997 and 1999, and is currently the Ethics Adviser to the Advisory Board of the African Development Bank (ADB) and a non-executive Director of Citibank.
He has also served in various roles within the United Nations, such as the United Nations Centre on Transnational Corporations, the United Nations African Institute for Crime Prevention, the International Criminal Court for Rwanda in Arusha, Tanzania, the Department of Peacekeeping Operations and the United Nations Peace Operations in Somalia.
If unimpeachable credentials of moral integrity are enough to win mass votes, Osinbajo would be an instant winner. To drive home the claim that he is a stickler for integrity, he is co-founder and board member, Convention on Business Integrity and the Justice Research Institute Limited. In 2007, he and his wife, Oludolapo, founded The Orderly Society Trust, a non-governmental organization dedicated to the promotion of Christian ethics and orderliness. Osinbajo has authored, co-authored and edited several books and publications.
The APC presidential running mate pastors the Olive Tree House of Prayer for All Nations, Banana Island, Ikoyi, Lagos, a parish of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG). It is on this plank that it is envisaged the Osinbajo candidacy would strike a strong chord in the February 14, 2014 election. The RCCG, believed to be the largest Christian sect in the country, commands wide followership across the country, especially in the South where the religion sentiment has been whipped up against Buhari and the APC.  
Former Aviation Minister, Mr Femi Fani-Kayode who decamped in June 2013 from the APC to the PDP, while crossing the carpet back to the PDP this year especially made an issue of what he swore was the Muslim-Muslim ticket the APC leadership was “working hard to impose on the party for the presidential election next year.” APC leadership’s pick of Osinbajo has, however, made nonsense of Fani-Kayode’s assertion and is believed could engender a rethink among the Christian population across Nigeria who had been hitherto sold on claims like the former Aviation Minister’s, as well as influence votes in favour of the APC.
Osinbajo’s selection may also have thrown some Yoruba leaders, elders and potential voters into a quandary. The astute lawyer hails from Ikenne, Ogun State, where the revered late Premier of the Western Region, Chief Obafemi Awolowo also hailed from. The romance between the Awolowo family with the PDP leadership is well-known, with its siblings beneficiaries of federal government’s appointments since 1999. Segun, a grandson of Chief Hannah Awolowo, remains a Special Adviser in the President Jonathan administration.
The Awolowo Ikenne home is the annual retreat venue of elements mostly opposed to the leadership style of Asiwaju Tinubu and who would rather vote for President Jonathan than for Buhari. The camp of the anti-Tinubu politicians has grown wider with developments in Ogun state where many leading politicians have defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
So would the Awolowo family vote for their “son”, rather than vote for President Jonathan? And would the anti-Tinubu elements in the Southwest have a change of mind against the APC and vote for Osinbajo?    
Going by the rabid opposition of these leaders/elders to Tinubu, coupled with so much self-interest, it is not likely the APC presidential running mate’s persona would influence any change of mind from them. But many of their followers may be bitten by the Osinbajo bug and vote for the APC.
Osinbajo himself, brimming with so much optimism towards the election, has expressed “a lot of hope and a resolve to be part of the movement to bring Nigeria back to its lost glory.” And from the APC leaders, it has been encomiums galore on his choice as Buhari’s deputy.  
Senator Babajide Omoworare  (Osun East Senatorial District) described Osinbajo as just the excellent, very cerebral running mate who would bring the best to the ticket. He quipped, “It is clear that in Nigeria there is need for change, so it is in the interest of our party that the best options are brought forward.”
Senator Olorunmbe Mamowora believed Osinbajo has “an immense electoral value.” But he quickly added that since the February 14 election is a presidential affair, the APC Is not focused on the Southwest alone but on the whole country. To him, the APC is headed for victory in the 2015 presidential elections.
Gov Fashola, who viewed Osinbajo’s nomination as “a good omen to the rule of law, federalism and constitutionalism in Nigeria” was sure that the duo of Buhari and Osinbajo would “make the change that Nigerians have been clamouring for.”
Senator Gbenga Ashafa, the lawmaker representing Lagos East senatorial district enthused that the combination of Buhari and Osinbajo at the top of the nation’s leadership would eradicate corruption in the country.
“I’m saying without any iota of doubt that the two of them will rescue Nigeria and Nigerians should be ready to embrace a brighter rewarding future. The only way to do this is for Nigerians to shine their eyes and ensure that they vote against the tyranny of the PDP,” he said.
A leader of the APC, Mr Wale Oshun described Prof Osinbajo as “a complete choice, the kind that the Presidency needs at this period.” Nigerians, Oshun emphasised, are looking forward to the period of a Presidency that “combines integrity with intellect and forthrightness.”
Alhaji Mohammed, the APC national scribe explained that the choice of Osibajo is meant “to complement the sterling qualities” of the party’s presidential candidate, Gen Buhari. “With a presidential candidate that has rekindled the hopes of the citizenry and revived their belief in democratic ideals, we believe we must also choose a running mate that will complement the sterling qualities of the presidential candidate.
“Osinbajo stands much taller than his physical frame and serves as a good accompaniment to the party’s presidential candidate, himself a man of such rare sterling qualities that have stood the test of time, qualities that are now so sorely lacking in our country’s leadership.”
 
The challenges before VP Namadi Sambo
As in the Southwest where Osinbajo has Tinubu’s political foes to contend with, the greatest  challenge before Vice President Sambo, as President Jonathan’s running mate in the 2015 presidential election, would be to dwarf Gen Buhari’s popularity and deliver massive votes in Kaduna particularly and the North generally to the president and the PDP generally. That would be a tall assignment, especially now that President Jonathan doesn’t appear to be enjoying a strong goodwill in the region.
Sambo would start from correcting the impression that a prophet is not appreciated in his home. His first test to prove his political worth in the 2011 general elections turned out to be a disaster for him politically, at least, in Kaduna, his home state.
The VP, according to the results of the elections, lost in the polling booth around his home, in his constituency and the presidential election. The defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) clinched all the victories, except the gubernatorial election that was won by the PDP.
In the same vein, in the violence that followed the 2011 general elections, Sambo’s properties and those of his relatives in Zaria, his hometown, became the major targets. A family house on Baba Ahmad Street in Tudun Wada, Zaria was torched by rioters, and a sister’s house in Tudun Jukun area of the ancient city was also set ablaze.
These incidents have brought the VP’s popularity in his hometown and state under serious questioning. Another dilemma for the VP in Kaduna state, which is likely to affect his influence, was the decamping of some of the founding members and formidable foot soldiers of the PDP in the state to the opposition APC.
Some of these personalities, like Alhaji Yaro Makama Rigachikwun, Ambassador Sule Buba, Suleiman Abdu Kwari and Alhaji Suleiman Uthman Hunkyi were said to have played a major role in the victories that the PDP has been recording in Kaduna state since 1999.
A member of the PDP in Chikaji ward of the Sabon Gari area of Kaduna state, who simply called himself Umar, said the problem of the VP is how to deal with the people that matter most. “It is only when somebody has a strong base at home that he can expand his political empire to other areas. I am a PDP member, but in my opinion, politics is all about people. But when you cage yourself either in a state or federal government house and expect that your people would be with you, it is surely an unrealistic dream.
“As a politician, one has to also show a high level of commitment in the interests of his people. People are supposed to see a politician occupying a certain position as their representative. One has to be up and doing in defending the interest of his people and addressing their concerns. Those are some of the things that endear a given politician to his people. But when people are killed and maimed and you remain docile because you are a loyal deputy, it is certainly a way of attracting the people’s wrath.
“If the truth must be told, in my opinion, the VP cannot even deliver his hometown, Zaria not to talk of his local government of residence, Kaduna North. It is therefore impossible for him to win, not even now that most Northerners are nursing serious grudges against this government,” Umar said.
In the same vein, Ambassador Sule Buba, a former ally of the VP, said Nigerians are now clamouring for change. “The wind of change is blowing everywhere in Nigeria and it is, therefore, difficult for Sambo to make serious inroad in states of the North.”
Buba explained that apart from the clamour for change, Sambo would have to contend with the botched ambitions of some PDP governors who angled to snatch the VP position from Sambo him. Governors of Katsina, Jigawa, Bauchi and Niger states were said to had eyed the position of the VP, but could not succeed because of what some described as Sambo’s “unquestionable loyalty” to Pres Jonathan.
Therefore, the cold war, according to pundits, between Sambo and some state governors in the North can affect his influence in those states.
Another factor, pundits say, which may affect the influence of the VP in the North is the insecurity problem, on which they accused that Sambo has not decisively spoken nor acted upon.
The defection of some governors of Northern states to the APC from PDP is another serious dilemma that the VP has to contend with. An influential Northern state like Kano is now under the firm control of APC’s Kwankwaso, while the Sokoto state governor, Aliyu Wamako has since abandoned the PDP for APC.
In the North central, Kwara has also shifted tent from the PDP to the APC, which is another setback for the VP’s influence in the 2015 elections.
By and large, pundits say VP Sambo needs extra energy or even a “miracle” to make Jonathan win in most northern states.
“The only geopolitical zone of the North that the VP is likely to wield any influence is the North central, and this is not because of any influence of the VP but because of religious and ethnic sentiments. Citizens of this geopolitical zone are predominantly Christians and may likely vote for Jonathan on religious sentiment, but definitely not on the influence of the VP,” a pundit said.
However, Barrister Mansur Ibrahim, the Public Relations Officer of the PDP in Kaduna state, was emphatic that despite all odds, the VP would make a good outing in the 2015 general elections.
“I believe that the VP would repeat what he has done in the 2011 elections where he has delivered most of the states of the Northwest and other states of the North to the PDP. He has the political influence to do that; there is no doubt about that. If you look at the 2011 elections, the VP performed excellently, and he has the political will to repeat that in 2015 to even deliver what people did not expect. He will deliver most of the states of the North to the PDP. There is no doubt about that,” Barrister Ibrahim said.
 
Sambo’s prospects
The Secretary of the PDP in the North West Bashir Tanimu said, “even though we have challenges in the North West because the presidential candidate of the opposition party is from the area, I am confident the PDP will win majority of the votes in the area.”
When asked about the popularity of VP Sambo in the area, Tanimu said “the choice of Goodluck Jonathan/Sambo as the party’s flag bearers in the presidential race was a good decision that will galvanize support for the party.”
The PDP Chairman of Sambo’s Kabala Ward in Kaduna, Abdullahi Babawo said the insinuations making the rounds that the VP was not popular in his ward and Kaduna state was untrue, adding that Sambo will attract more voters from the north. “The VP recently had meetings with all the party leaders in the North West Zone where we settled our differences and agreed to work together in 2015. The meeting included governors, lawmakers and many other party stakeholders. I assure you that with support of the VP, our party will get massive votes from the north.”
The Political Adviser to the Vice President, Malam Abba Dabo said Sambo “has been efficient both as deputy to Mr. President and in protecting the interest of his primary constituency, Northern Nigeria”. Dabo stressed that within the last four years that he has been in office, the PDP has done numerous projects and programmes in the region that would ensure victory for the party in the North in particular in the 2015 elections.
He said “voters will be mobilized into coming out and support the party through consultations and involvement of all stakeholders in the campaign for the re-election of the government that has done tremendously well for the people of the region.”   
Also the Coordinator of the Grassroot Development Network in Kaduna, Yusuf Usman Garba regarded the electoral prospects of the PDP in the 2015 elections as very bright, “considering the efforts of VP Sambo in mobilizing support for the party.”  The PDP, Garba maintained, remains very popular in the rural areas where most of the votes he said would come from. “The VP has contacts in each local government in the north who strive toward good governance and mass mobilization of voters. Sambo is a grassroot politician.”