Scaremongers have come again!

Many are saying with great conviction that with the choices of Buhari and Jonathan as presidential candidates, Nigeria has more or less boxed itself into a very tight corner because the two symbolise the major fault lines, namely the imaginary or real division of the country along regional and religious cleavages. They say that given […]

Many are saying with great conviction that with the choices of Buhari and Jonathan as presidential candidates, Nigeria has more or less boxed itself into a very tight corner because the two symbolise the major fault lines, namely the imaginary or real division of the country along regional and religious cleavages. They say that given the choice of these two major political gladiators, Nigerians are being called upon to choose between a rock and a very hard place; that what we have on our hands are what the English people call a Hobson’s choice or the Devil’s Alternative; that whoever of them the majority of the electorate chooses or is declared winner, there will be war.
My neighbour in the estate where I live came to me one morning and asked why I seem unmoved by the panic that has enveloped many people, especially Southerners living in Northern towns and cities, who are now desperately trying to relocate back to their villages until they are sure there will be no violence before they return to their current places of abode. I asked him to tell me why people are thinking that there will be war whoever wins.
He said that people are afraid because they sense that if the PDP senses that Buhari will win, they will use the army and the police to prevent voters from voting especially in APC strongholds in the troubled North East or to outright rig the election and that if any of these happens, there will be trouble. They also say that if Jonathan wins even genuinely without rigging Buhari and the Northern establishment which is desperate for power will instigate their people not to accept such a victory. And if that happens, the Niger Delta militants, who have already issued a threat, will create trouble for the country. So any way or where the victory pendulum swings would spell war for Nigeria. They paint such a scary but convincing scenario that even if you are by nature and faith an optimistic person, you may be tempted to allow yourself to catch the fear fever.
If the authorities are aware of this strong feeling of fear, what scenarios are they staging and what contingency plans are they evolving to address what is already a problem besetting the nation? It is true that many Nigerians are leaving and others are planning to leave ‘strange lands’ where they are living in at the moment for their villages which they consider safe havens. A responsible government cannot pretend that this is not a source of concern to it. So far, they have been no assurances from government quarters that Nigerians should have no cause to fear; that on the part of government and the ruling party, nothing will be done to bring about the prophecy of doom being marketed by panicky individuals. More importantly, some of us need to hear words of comfort from the security agencies that they are aware of the panic being expressed by some citizens and that steps are being taken to avoid any possible breakdown of the law before, during andafter the all- important presidential election.
As a student of Nigerian history and politics, I am deeply concerned because many Nigerians die unnecessarily from panic departures in droves to their villages than from any real election or political troubles. I remember that many compatriots who chose to go to their villages, fell victim to former Comrade Uche Chukwumerije’s scaremongering propaganda about the war to come during the Abacha-era than those who chose to remain in places where they earned their living.
The presidential candidates and their political parties recently signed a peace accord, to maintain the peace and do nothing to provoke violence. But this accord does not seem to assuage the low opinion Nigerians hold of those who aspire to lead them at the very highest level. This distrust should indeed worry the presidential candidates.  If many Nigerian think they are not likely to respect the solemn oath they took to conduct selves in a manner not to provoke violence, how then will they believe that the men will execute the various promises they have made to them in the course of the campaign?
Very disturbing to me is that the distrust of the people of their leaders and government will only continue. That, to me, spells greater danger to Nigeria and Nigerians than any fear that the outcome of the event scheduled for February 14 will engender violence or deepen the division which Nigeria already suffers. What is happening, the fear by some that they are in strange places and that they can only find safety in their villages, is worrisome and I hope our leaders on both sides of the divides are taking note.
To me, it means that the idea of one Nigeria has not been successfully implanted in many Nigerians. And this is squarely the task of leadership. Our leaders should be ashamed that nearly sixty years after independence and swimming in petro-dollars, those who lead us have not made Nigerians out of the people who inhabit Nigeria.
For me, looking the level of committed and genuine support which Buhari enjoys from Southerners and Jonathan from Northerners, I was tempted to do a piece celebrating the coming of age of Nigerians. The new fear in town which shows that there is still a real or perceived division of the country along some lines, has tended to shake that faith.
Our consolation however should lie in the fact that every nation on earth is a work in progress. After all, if the Scots in the so-called United Kingdom still think of going their separate ways after nearly six hundred years of living together with the English and the Welsh, then there is no cause for me or anybody else to be so despondent about the fact that there are some in Nigeria who seem disposed to heed the war cry of ‘To Your Tents, O Israel! barely 100 years of living as one. Since Nigeria is still largely a work in progress, the law enforcement agencies should come alive in trying to manage the present looming threat to peaceful co-existence. They should not, as we tend to do our things in Nigeria, wait for the last minute for the doom foretold to happen before they wake up to do something.
Nigeria is not bound to violence as some would like us to believe. And the nation is not the property of any one region, religion or ethnic group. As I have always maintained on these pages and elsewhere, a nation is first of all a spiritual entity before it becomes a physical entity. This nation belongs to God and it is only his will that shall prevail.