Significance of seasonal climate prediction for Nigeria’s small-scale farmers

Recently, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) released its Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) to provide vital weather and climate information that affects socio-economic activities across various sectors, including agriculture. For the small-scale farmers in Nigeria, who form the backbone of the country’s agricultural sector, the SCP has significant implications as they primarily rely on rain-fed agriculture […]

Recently, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) released its Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) to provide vital weather and climate information that affects socio-economic activities across various sectors, including agriculture. For the small-scale farmers in Nigeria, who form the backbone of the country’s agricultural sector, the SCP has significant implications as they primarily rely on rain-fed agriculture that makes them highly vulnerable to climate quirks in the form of irregular rainfall patterns and water shortages.

The SCP is a guide to both positive opportunities and potential challenges, each of which may influence farming decisions, productivity, and livelihoods. The prediction gives an opportunity to improve Farm Planning and Decision-Making as it provides early warnings about rainfall patterns, temperature variations, and extreme weather events. It is a guide for farmers to adjust their planting schedules based on the predicted onset and cessation of rains, reducing risks of crop failure.

Climate conditions are also known to strongly influence the outbreak of pests and diseases (e.g., armyworms in maize, blight in tomatoes, and Newcastle disease in poultry), SCP predictions help farmers prepare for pest outbreaks by adopting preventive measures such as early pesticide application and improved livestock housing.

Based on the above premise, proper utilisation of climate predictions can lead to higher yields by preventing losses due to drought, late planting, or excessive rainfall and will contribute to national food security and improve farmers’ incomes.

Drought has been a recurring challenge in Nigeria, with climate change intensifying its frequency and severity. The forecast of prolonged droughts in the country, as reported on Thursday, March 6, 2025, by the BBC Hausa Service, poses significant threats to smallholder farmers – the backbone of Nigeria’s agricultural sector.

To safeguard food security, livelihoods, and the agricultural economy, it is crucial to adopt sustainable solutions and mitigation measures that will enhance resilience. The solutions can be categorised into short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures, covering water management, soil conservation, climate-smart agriculture, policy interventions, and community-driven initiatives.

Smallholder farmers can take short-term measures to reduce the adverse effects of drought. These are interventions like water harvest that requires minimal investment and can be implemented within a season. The simple yet effective techniques of rain harvest, mulching, drip irrigation etc. can easily be adopted by farmers. They can as well plant drought-resistant and early-maturing crop varieties that are now available as a quick way to reduce the impact of water shortages.

For the livestock farmers, drought leads to shortages of pasture and water with increased mortality rates; they should therefore stockpile animal feed in anticipation of drought by preserving hay and silage, practice rotational grazing to prevent overgrazing and maintain grass cover and adopt alternative feeds such as agro-industrial byproducts (e.g., maize bran, groundnut cake) to supplement forage.

While in the area of Agroforestry, planting trees around farms will help reduce soil erosion, retain moisture, and provide shade, reducing heat stress on crops and animals. Agroforestry systems that integrate crops with nitrogen-fixing trees will improve soil fertility, water retention and provide windbreaks

In the medium-term, structured interventions are required to enhance long-term drought resilience. This shall entail better planning, investment in infrastructure, and improved farming techniques. Government agencies, NGOs, and private investors should support smallholder farmers in adopting affordable irrigation systems such as solar-powered boreholes as a sustainable solution for providing water in remote areas, water lifting technologies to support small-scale irrigation and community irrigation schemes with shared irrigation infrastructure that allows groups of farmers to access water efficiently.

Sustaining soil health is critical for improving water retention and reducing drought vulnerability. Farmers should implement conservation tillage by reducing ploughing frequency to help maintain soil structure and moisture levels, plant legumes or ground cover crops to improve soil organic matter and prevents erosion and terracing/contour farming, especially in hilly areas as a technique to slow down water runoff and improve soil absorption.

In the area of livestock, drought-resilient indigenous livestock breeds that are naturally adapted to arid conditions can reduce mortality during droughts. Breeds such as Red Sokoto goats and White Fulani cattle that are more resilient to heat stress and feed shortages should be promoted.

Farmers need timely information on weather patterns to plan their activities. Investing in community-based weather stations and using mobile technology to disseminate forecasts can help farmers make informed decisions about planting and water management.

Long-term strategies should focus on systemic changes that address the root causes of drought vulnerability and enhance agricultural sustainability. There should be policy support, infrastructure development, and community participation. Expanding irrigation networks and investing in water management infrastructure will reduce dependency on rainfall.

There should be dams and reservoirs as large-scale water storage systems to supply irrigation schemes, innovative technologies (desalination and water recycling) to increase water availability in arid regions and interbasin water transfers for redirecting water from wetter to drier regions.

Drought has worsened. Large-scale tree-planting initiatives, such as the Great Green Wall project, should be expanded to restore degraded lands minimised deforestation and desertification. Community-based afforestation programs can help combat land degradation.

There is need for strong policy reforms and institutional support to promote drought resilience by incentivizing Climate-Smart Agriculture, water-efficient technologies, strengthening extension services, enforcement of land use regulations to prevent overgrazing and deforestation through land management policies. There should be improved road networks, storage facilities, and market access that enable farmers to sell their produce more efficiently and reduce post-harvest losses. This ensures income stability even during drought periods.

Building local capacity will be essential for long-term drought resilience. Community-driven approaches with Farmer Field Schools for training on sustainable practices with women and youth engagement to encourage participation in climate-resilient agribusiness ventures, and incorporating indigenous/traditional drought adaptation techniques into modern agricultural strategies will make it possible.

The success of these strategies depends on collaborative efforts between farmers, government agencies, research institutions, and private sector stakeholders. By prioritising drought mitigation, Nigeria can safeguard its agricultural sector, protect rural livelihoods, and ensure long-term food security and economic stability.

 

Ahmad resides at FMA2 off Yaya (Petel) Abubakar Road, Fadamar Mada, Bauchi  Email: [email protected]