Solving food inflation is half way to solving our social crisis

In the US, the inflation rate rose to 4.2 per cent, the highest in over a decade, with the price of staple food such as turkey doubling in a year. It’s a similar story in the UK, where inflation hit 2.5 per cent, exceeding the 2.0 per cent target of the Bank of England and […]

In the US, the inflation rate rose to 4.2 per cent, the highest in over a decade, with the price of staple food such as turkey doubling in a year. It’s a similar story in the UK, where inflation hit 2.5 per cent, exceeding the 2.0 per cent target of the Bank of England and hitting a level last since in 2018 when nobody knew COVID-19 was going to strike.

Elsewhere in Canada, and even developing economies like China, it’s the same rhythm, as rising food prices continue to erode purchasing power, a phenomenon which is forcing monetary authorities around the world to reverse accommodative policies, hence ushering in a new interest-rate tightening regime.

In Nigeria, food prices are rising at a pace perhaps never seen before even so for peculiar reasons we could have avoided, and perhaps this could have been our time to shine and show the world that we, at least, have a competitive advantage in food production if we truly can harness our agriculture resources.

The country could have avoided it, and perhaps this could have been our time to shine and show the world that we at least have a competitive advantage in food production if we truly can harness our agriculture resources. We have a vast arable land, favourable weather all year round, and a youthful labour force. 

Just imagine what would have happened with a significant portion of this land being deployed to productive agriculture. Imagine what quantum of food that Nigeria would be producing, and the impact that would have on the price of food for the benefit of the citizens.

Many Nigerians are convinced that if this country gets its agricultural sector right inflation will reverse from the upward trend that has characterised it for some time now. They also believe that the current heightened social tension in the land would also begin to ease because it is believed that hunger in the land is one of the major factors responsible for the social and civil unrest. The country’s agricultural sector comprises crop production, livestock, forestry, and fishing.  Opportunities exist in agro-processing along the value chain in all aspects of agricultural production.

If Nigeria had put its forests into proper use, they probably would not have become the living places for kidnappers and bandits.

Food prices started rising in Nigeria before the rest of the world and it is still rising and rising very fast, with no friction on its way. Nigerians are being constantly buffeted by the threat of food insecurity.

Families are having to adjust their budgets, with more money being allocated to food. For the poor, who usually spend a higher percentage of their income on food, the situation is getting critical.

The president noted in his independence speech that the rising food prices were reflective of the unpatriotic hoarding practice of middlemen and I am wondering when will these middlemen stop hoarding. And where exactly are their warehouses that are yet to be filled up, and when do they intend to sell? They must have unlimited capital to keep hoarding food items for the past four years that we have seen food prices on a sharp uptrend.

Yes, there is a demand surge problem, because the population keeps growing. COVID or no COVID, we are a highly reproductive people here, with a population growth of almost three per cent indicating our high fertility rate, which masks our low life expectancy and high mortality rate.

Yes, the weather may not have been at the best of conditions, given climate change issues, but we are relatively at an advantage and still have the natural capacity to not only feed ourselves but also feed a large part of the global population if we get agriculture right.

However, away from the stance of the government around the activities of middlemen, many of whom are perhaps out of business due to the challenging business environment, we need to address the root course of this looming food crisis. When will the farmers be free to fully return to the farms? There are tales of farms being abandoned as the farmers run away just to stay alive. When will herders be free to rear their livestock in a way that does not disrupt farmers or other people’s business? When will the government provide a conducive environment for all? 

Nigeria is investing money and encouraging more investments into the production of key food products, especially fish, wheat, rice, and sugar, commonly referred to as the Big Four on the country’s food import list. However, do we really have a well-thought-out plan beyond this money-throwing strategy which perhaps may not be addressing the real problems, but rather creating rent-seeking opportunities for a few?

It’s high time all stakeholders objectively addressed the fundamental issues. It is not too late. Farmers can fully resume farming. Boko Haram is a major problem but perhaps the incidence of farmer-herder clashes has caused more damage to farming than anyone could ever have imagined.

The challenge of banditry is wreaking havoc on the agriculture sector, an implicit cost beyond the ransom and the cost of policing. It’s high time governments at all levels went back to the drawing board. We need to go back to our history to learn. The groundnut pyramids were not myths and the huge cocoa and oil palm exports were not miracles that cannot be repeated.

Perhaps we are even in a better state than ever before. We are more in number now and technology has perhaps made it possible for us to improve productivity, but we must address the cultural and social issues, without playing politics.

This is why agriculture must feature prominently in the novel programme being advocated by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the 100 for 100 PPP.

Nigeria’s agriculture needs an uncommon push now, to enable it to galvanise the other sectors of the economy for the envisaged impact.