Still on Borno’s population dispute
Thus, the 1991 population census in Nigeria projected a 14% population growth every ten years. If this projection is to be relied upon, one would have expected the total population of the country to have increased by about 21% between 1991 and 2006, when the last population exercise was conducted in the country. While there […]
Thus, the 1991 population census in Nigeria projected a 14% population growth every ten years. If this projection is to be relied upon, one would have expected the total population of the country to have increased by about 21% between 1991 and 2006, when the last population exercise was conducted in the country.
While there is no major disaster in any part of Nigeria to warrant a reversal of the 1991 projection, there are indications that the population of some areas reduced drastically, while that of others went up geometrically. Of course, the National Population Commission has over the years insisted that the 2006 Population Census was not only accurate and credible, but complied with logical principles in population estimation universally. Many sections of the country have continued to cry that they have been undercounted. Those who have the privilege of reviewing the 1991 data are better positioned to say whether the 2006 exercise confirms with universal projections, that, the World population is growing and not decreasing.
I am aware that in the past, certain sections of Borno state were alleged to have counted their livestock as part of the human population. Those who made the allegations at that time must have physically visited the areas concerned, and it is difficult to refute their claims, given that you never get to see people physically in the areas that posted higher population figures. Even as an indigene of Borno state, I cannot help agreeing with them that certain sections of Borno state are sparsely populated, and could not have posted the figures allocated to them as their population. On the other hand, the cases of other sections of Borno state, which have the physical people to parade, are even pathetic and scandalous. In parts of Southern Borno, the figures allocated to them by the NPC are not a reflection of what one sees on ground.
Some of the areas that have consistently insisted that their population was manipulated were the people of Hawul, Askira/Uba and Chibok Local Government Areas all in the southern part of Borno state. While the population of Hawul dropped from 173,602 in 1991 to 120,314 in 2006, Askira/Uba dropped from 168,204 in 1991 to 137,000 in 2006, even as chibok fell from 91,000 in 1991 to 67, 000 in 2006. As it stands, the number of registered voters in Askira/Uba and Hawul is more than the total population figures of these areas as published by the National population Commission. The recent judgment by the Census Tribunal sitting in Abuja to the effect that a recount was ordered in Hawul Local Government Area of Borno state was a vindication of the people’s position, to the effect that they were short changed, and a further pointer that the 2006 Census was not as accurate and credible as the National Population Commission wants us to believe. In the entirety of Borno state, these three were the only areas which population was reduced from the 1991 figures, apparently for certain ulterior motives, while Gubio, Nganzai, Kaga, and Magumeri in the northern and central parts of the state; known for their low population density, had their population multiplied over five times.
Since judgment was entered for Hawul recently, with an order to the National Population Commission to conduct fresh head count in the area, those behind the manipulation of the population figures in Borno have been running from pillar to poll to frustrate a possible recount. Their fears are further heightened with the possibility of Askira/Uba and Chibok getting favorable judgments in their own separate cases, which may tend to further expose the fraud that was the population census in Borno in 2006. Whether the National Population Commission appeals the Judgment of the Census Tribunal or not, the initial judgment has exposed a lot of the inadequacies of the 2006 head count, especially the systematic estrangement of the people of southern Borno, by downplaying their potentials, and their size.
The data of the National Population Commission, NPC as it affects Borno State, is to the extent of recent exposures unreliable, either for national planning or even for guidance to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, for the purposes of voter registration or constituency delineation. I challenge the National Population Commission to publish the individual data of the over 200,000 people recorded each for Gubio, Nganzai, Magumeri and Kaga, and support the data with actual pictures of persons so registered. I know that there is no such data, which makes the entries recorded for these areas deceptive. It may interest the world to know that the total number of votes that elected the senator representing the entire Borno North for Example is only half the number of votes recorded by the member representing Hawul and Askira /Uba in the House of Representatives yet only two Local Governments in the north have a population more than the entire south put together.
The people of southern Borno by divine providence have the opportunity to correct the records when they go out in full strength to register during both the population recount and the planned voter registration exercise; assuming both exercises will be devoid of the usual intrigues and manipulations. Perhaps the time has come for the people to demonstrate that they are minorities on paper, but majority in physical appearance. This may be the only opportunity left for them to prove to the world that what was allocated to them as their population in 2006 was but a figment of the imaginations of a few people bent on mystifying the majority/minority issues in the country.
Inuwa Bwala, a journalist from Borno state contributed this piece from Abuja.