Swing song on Iran’s nuke

Summarily, the United Nations Security Council has overwhelmingly agreed to a new package of economic sanctions against Iran. The new sanctions include cargo inspections, new controls on Iranian banks “to block the use of the international financial system … to fund and facilitate nuclear proliferation,” restrictions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a new U.N. […]

Summarily, the United Nations Security Council has overwhelmingly agreed to a new package of economic sanctions against Iran.

The new sanctions include cargo inspections, new controls on Iranian banks “to block the use of the international financial system … to fund and facilitate nuclear proliferation,” restrictions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a new U.N. panel of experts to help monitor and enforce sanction, and asset freezes on 40 entities and an individual. The individual is Javad Rahiqi, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, who will also be subjected to a travel ban.

Furthermore, the sanctions do not include restrictions on gas imports to Iran, a possibility the United States had floated but which China and Russia opposed.

However, Turkey and Brazil both voted against the resolution, while Lebanon abstained.

Barack Obama, the US president, called the resolution, “the toughest sanctions ever faced” by the Iranian government. “We recognize Iran’s rights. But with those rights come responsibilities, and time and again, the Iranian government has failed to meet those responsibilities.”

Susan Rice, the United States Ambassador to the UN, commended the vote as a “decisive” move against Iran’s nuclear programme, which she called a “grave threat to international security.”

“True security will not come through nuclear weapons,” Obama said, calling Iran the only signer of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty “that cannot convince the IAEA that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes,” referring to the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency. The U.S stand as far as the Iranian issue is concerned has been to slam the sledge hammer, but to achieve that, the U.S needed some foot soldiers from within which they eventually got and surprisingly, China inclusive.

Also, “the most comprehensive sanctions that the Iranian government has faced,” Mr. Obama noted that they would impose restrictions not only on Iran’s nuclear activities and its ballistic missile program but also on its conventional military, on Iranian banks and financial transactions, individuals, entities, and institutions associated with the Revolutionary Guards.

But the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations condemned the vote.

“What is at stake today is the credibility of the Security Council, which has turned into a tool in the hands of a few countries that do not hesitate to abuse it,” Mohammad Khazaee said.

He reiterated Iran’s long-standing insistence that the country is not seeking nuclear weapons, pointing out that its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has declared them “religiously forbidden.”

In his own reaction, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, was one of several high-ranking Iranian officials to quickly condemn the decision. Ahmadinejad said the sanctions would not have an impact on Iran.

“Sanctions are falling on us from left and right. For us, they are the same as pesky flies,” Ahmadinejad said. “We have patience and we will endure throughout all  this.”

Even though the deed had been done, some members of the  security council claimed that they are prepared to continue dialogue and interaction with Iran, British ambassador to the U.N, Sir Mark Lyall Grant, said on behalf of his country, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States — the countries would keep negotiating with Tehran over its nuclear program.

The foreign ministers of the six nations issued a statement saying the resolution “keeps the door open for continued engagement” with Iran. It concluded by saying, “We expect Iran to demonstrate a pragmatic attitude and to respond positively to our openness towards dialogue and negotiations.”

The claimed that it is not directed at Iranian people

Another key thrust of the messages that  have been put out to the media since the announcement of sanctions has been the emphasis that the sanctions would not negatively impact on the people of Iran but would only target specific parts of the Iranian state that were involved in supporting the country’s alleged nuclear programme in one way or another. For example, President Obama and Ms. Rice have emphatically said, “these sanctions are not directed at the Iranian people.’’

However, in a media chat, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, William Burns, cast such assertions in doubt as he said, “I’ll be honest with you, there is no perfect assurance that you can give with regards to a sanctions regime or a new sanctions resolution and its impact on a country and a society.” He went on to state, “we have tried… to minimize the impact on the Iranian people and maximize the impact on that calculation of the Iranian leadership. Is that a perfect solution? No, I would not pretend that.”

Additionally, Mr. Burns defended the sanctions’ targeting  the Iranian Central Bank, saying, “Focus, not only on the Central Bank but on the Iranian banking system and ways in which the international financial system can be manipulated, is an important new development and a significant step forward in this resolution.”

One of the puzzling questions in this resolution is that, how would a sanction that bothers on economy (both micro and macro) not affect the well-being of the Iranian people?

Why would Beijing help punish Iran for only appearing to make an atomic bomb but not also punish North Korea for having already exploded one?

Obviously, as it is widely believed by observers, China is not too worried about nuclear proliferation; otherwise it would have used its considerable economic clout over North Korea to stop it from making a bomb (or two) over the past two decades. And if Beijing really wanted to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, it would have gone along with even tougher sanctions against Iran as proposed by the West.

Having noted that, another puzzle is why has China key –in at this moment?

But it didn’t. And there the guessing game starts about China’s real motives in being slightly tough on Iran but not so on North Korea.

China can also extract benefits from the West by going along with the mild sanctions. The US, for instance, has so far avoided designating China as a currency-rate manipulator in order to win over Beijing and create a big-power front against Iran, now the sanctions have been slammed, surprisingly with China’s acquiesced which is believed to accomplish that presumption.

Some analysts are of the view that how far the UN has reached in punishing Iran depended in large part on China’s economic needs.

For US diplomats who have been able to ratchet up ever-tougher sanctions on Iran since 2006, this is a delicate and puzzling game of trying to figure out China’s economic interests.

The game is far from over as Iran may be a year or more away from making enough high-grade uranium. Meanwhile, the sanction regime has begun.

Will the sanctions reverse or put a substantive halt to the nuclear programme?