The abducted girls of Chibok

However, those calling for the use of full military force in the rescue effort need a rethink before they take a leap. It is strategically wrong to use full military force or what is called minimum force in the military circle to rescue captives. All diplomatic channels should be explored first and foremost. If these […]

However, those calling for the use of full military force in the rescue effort need a rethink before they take a leap. It is strategically wrong to use full military force or what is called minimum force in the military circle to rescue captives. All diplomatic channels should be explored first and foremost. If these fail, subterfuge could be used as bait to hoodwink the insurgents. I am not aware of such move or any diplomatic negotiations or approach on the part of the federal government.
The risk propensity of carrying out a military rescue mission must be put into cognizance. The United States tried it in 1980 during the Iran Hostage Crisis but, it ended up in futility—the desert consumed its commandos before getting to their destination. We all know how it ended during a rescue operation carried in Sokoto sometimes last year.
Hence, we need to remember Con Coughlin who told us that the chances of captives surviving their ordeal are often no better than those you’ll get from the roll of a dice…launching a successful rescue, on the other hand is different: the priority is to ensure that the intelligence is accurate, that the people you are targeting are the ones holding the hostages and that the captives are still alive. After that it comes down to a basic risk assessment: what are the chances of freeing the hostages, and what are the likely risks to those conducting the mission, as well as those providing a support role [the SSS and the Civilian JTF, etc].
I am afraid, if the public insists on pushing the government to embark on this rescue mission through force of arms, the captives we are trying to rescue could end up being victims of flying bullets of the trigger-happy insurgents. The government indeed needs an eagle eye to see beyond the general public this time around.
However, the public has every reason to engage the government in this manner considering its insensitive and lackadaisical approach to the whole issue. We indeed need to act fast before it is too late.

Muhammad Ibn Muhsin al-Ansari<[email protected]>;