The alarming rise in Nigeria’s population

Figures released by the National Population Commission (NPC) recently estimated Nigeria’s population at 206 million. This is coming two years after the NPC in a similar survey put Nigeria’s population at 198 million. In quantitative terms, this means that Nigeria’s population grew exponentially by eight million within the space of just two years. In comparative […]

Figures released by the National Population Commission (NPC) recently estimated Nigeria’s population at 206 million.

This is coming two years after the NPC in a similar survey put Nigeria’s population at 198 million.

In quantitative terms, this means that Nigeria’s population grew exponentially by eight million within the space of just two years. In comparative terms, the eight million added to Nigeria’s population is larger than the population of every single state in the country minus Lagos and Kano being the two most populous states. The figure is also larger than a good many countries in the world whose populations have remained either steady or declined over a long time.

At the current rate of expansion, our population is on course to meet the projection of 400 million or more by 2050, which will make Nigeria the third-largest country in the world after China and India.

While there are those who may want to gloat over this development, when viewed realistically, however, against the matching factors of productivity, quality of lives and livelihood and availability of resources to cater for this burgeoning population, the overall picture does not look encouraging.

The one thing that is glaringly clear is that our population is increasing at a time when resources are getting scarcer to provide for the existing populace. Of this, the most immediate is the pressure on land resources for the expanding population.

Already, effects of this pressure are being manifested in many negative ways not least is the frequent clashes between herders needing more grazing land for their livestock and farmers whose farmlands are encroached upon.

Another factor to consider is the productivity of the populace. Our economy, which is largely based on revenue from oil export, engages only a tiny fraction of our population. Our population, large as it is, lives mostly on endeavours that add little value in terms of creativity, specialisation and productive innovation.  Hence the skill pool to engage in large scale industrial production necessary for an economy such as ours is severely lacking.

It should concern our planning authorities as well as governments that our large population offers very little in terms of quality and skill. It should also be a matter of alarm that our population is expanding without a commensurate increase in our productivity.

Who will cater for the expanding population? What services can they expect as citizens of Nigeria? How can Nigeria engage them to be productive citizens and contribute their bit to its development?

Such a situation provides a perfect setting for conflicts of multiple dimensions to occur between and among the various peoples and classes making up Nigeria as the struggle for scarce resources intensifies in the coming years. This is likely to get even sharper as the government is forced to deploy the increasingly lean resources available to address such conflicts thereby leaving very little for other important sectors of national life.

We acknowledge that facing up to the challenges of uncontrolled population growth such as ours is by no means easy. Not least in this regard are deeply rooted cultural values, which discourage birth control measures.

But these can be addressed through a concerted approach by the government involving traditional rulers, community leaders, women groups, social workers, and other influencers who will enlighten and bring home the dangers of uncontrolled birth. The message should be to encourage families to space the birth of their children.

At the macro level, since there is a strong link between uncontrolled birth and economic factors, the government should endeavour to ensure that especially the youthful segment is trained and integrated into value-adding skill and productive endeavours right across the value chain of the economy. This is with a view to creating the much-needed skill pool for the future development of Nigeria.

As the examples of China and India have demonstrated, it is not all too bad to have a large population if such could be qualitatively productive in the quest for national development.

Nigeria, which has huge challenges in meeting its national development objectives like these two, should devise ways of turning its large and expanding population in this direction.