The breakaway and the agenda

I do not know how to tell these political gladiators that repeating a losing strategy will not yield a different result. Precisely, a divided opposition means the ruling party will be re-elected. I am writing this in light of Peter Obi and Kwankwaso’s breakaway from the ADC mega-coalition. Likewise, Governor Bala Mohammed’s decision to join the […]

I do not know how to tell these political gladiators that repeating a losing strategy will not yield a different result. Precisely, a divided opposition means the ruling party will be re-elected.

I am writing this in light of Peter Obi and Kwankwaso’s breakaway from the ADC mega-coalition. Likewise, Governor Bala Mohammed’s decision to join the APM from the PDP has diluted the momentum of the mega-opposition coalition intended to unseat the ruling party. Therefore, it would be categorically illogical to blame the ruling party or Tinubu for that decision.

Tinubu and his ruling party can be blamed for a million crimes against the ADC and other opposition parties. The ruling party is trying very hard to destabilise the coalition through the courts and by using law enforcement to intimidate disgruntled politicians. But the responsibility for Obi and Kwankwaso leaving the ADC lies solely with them. They have all provided us with their explanations, and it is for the people to judge. It would not be wrong to think that their personal ambition is more important than the collective resolution to unseat the ruling party. If this is actually the case, they are making it easy for Tinubu to win.

From Tinubu’s utterances, one can deduce that he does not want to be associated with the core North when it comes to his re-election. His claim that his enemies are creating insecurity to get rid of him is clearly directed at a specific region of the country. The agenda is to pit the country against the North in order to win votes for him. And it is not surprising to hear it from the horse’s mouth.

Those observing grassroots politics in the North can attest that the core North has since been removed from Tinubu’s plan to win the 2027 election. This is a deliberate attempt to alienate the machinery that worked for him in the previous elections. But the feeling is mutual. Northern voters have equally distanced themselves from the ruling party, despite efforts by elected legislators and governors to rebuild trust in it. Northern politicians pushing to be involved in Tinubu’s re-election campaign are unwelcome because they come from a region that opposes the president. One could say they are only trying to save themselves by riding the bandwagon, since they are too deeply involved with the ruling party.

Political observers may think this is the right moment for the opposition to build on the momentum across the country, starting in the North, the region with the largest number of voters and the highest voter turnout. But instead of seizing the opportunity, the political gladiators are breaking up the coalition they spent more than 18 months building. One wonders whether they know what they are doing. This also casts doubt on their ability to govern the country. After all, if they cannot reach an agreement with their colleagues, how can they effectively govern a country broken by corruption, intolerance, and mistrust?

The allegedp story of the opposition being hunted by the ruling party is well documented. The court cases are seriously affecting any potential coalition, alliances or consensus within the parties. The NDC, which Kwankwaso chose as the alternative to the ADC, has not gained any momentum in the North.

One key problem with the NDC is a lack of communication with the northern stakeholders. 2027 will not be won on social media. And people are seriously seeking an alternative to this ruling party, including Kwankwaso himself.

However, Kwankwaso spoke only with his Kano caucus before breaking away from the ADC. No other caucus in the northern states was consulted to move. It is looking more like a hasty decision for reasons that are unexplained. This is not how to form political movements unless the agenda is to spring a much bigger surprise on voters. It would not be wrong to say that jumping to the NDC is not the best decision, especially if the objective is to unseat the ruling party. The NDC also has court cases.

Whatever the reason for the breakaway, it is not sitting well with northern politicians and voters. And one wonders when the decision was made, given that just a few days ago, in Ibadan, the coalition agreed on a single presidential candidate to challenge Tinubu. So, are they now reneging on the gentleman’s agreement? Regardless, we must tell voters the truth: this dream will not be realised.

It can also be suggested that one of the opposition is working to help Tinubu either by accident or by design. Tinubu has already listed his enemies and where they come from. As stated earlier, the core North is not part of Tinubu’s plan. Again, this is one niche area the opposition should pay attention to.

The opposition needs to pay attention to what the voters want. The average voter may be desperate to change this ruling party. They want anything but APC. But the breakaway politicians must not mistake this desperation for stupidity. They can smell gibberish from where they stand. And if they are ever going to vote for change, they will not vote for a party that will pave the way for Tinubu to continue. Those who want continuity would rather vote for the incumbent than risk confusion.

I must reiterate that the opposition political gladiators need to work with northern voters as kingmakers, not as power grabbers. This is the time to use the voters to show the North has the capacity to make the necessary difference demanded from the electorate.