The by-elections: Lessons beyond the headlines

The by-elections held across 12 states on the August 16 have brought renewed attention to the evolving dynamics of our political space. The APC, as expected, retained its stronghold in several states, showing once again the value of its grassroots structures and organisational depth. In Kaduna, Ogun, Edo, Niger, and elsewhere, the APC’s victories reaffirmed […]

The by-elections held across 12 states on the August 16 have brought renewed attention to the evolving dynamics of our political space. The APC, as expected, retained its stronghold in several states, showing once again the value of its grassroots structures and organisational depth. In Kaduna, Ogun, Edo, Niger, and elsewhere, the APC’s victories reaffirmed its dominance as the ruling party and the most nationally entrenched political machine.

In Kano, the battle between APC and NNPP was anything but symbolic; it was a live test of strength in the state’s most strategic zones. For over a decade, Kano has been the APC’s fortress, especially in the North, where figures like Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin have anchored the party’s dominance. Yet, the numbers from last weekend suggest that fortress is under siege.

In the Ghari/Tsanyawa supplementary election, long considered an APC bastion, the party narrowly clinched victory with 31,472 votes against the NNPP’s 27,931. For a zone regarded as a core APC stronghold, the margin of barely 3,500 votes is more than a statistical footnote; it affirms how far NNPP’s influence has spread in less than two years. This close call is a sharp contrast to the overwhelming victories APC once enjoyed in the region.

This trend becomes even more striking in Bagwai/Shanono, another constituency within Kano North. Here, the NNPP’s Ali Lawal Al-Hassan delivered a crushing win, polling 16,198 votes to the APC’s 5,347, a margin of nearly 11,000 votes. That such a decisive outcome emerged from an area traditionally leaning toward APC is seismic. The broader picture is clear: NNPP now commands a strong grip on Kano politics, holding 26 seats in the State House of Assembly against APC’s 14. In less than two years, the NNPP has dismantled more than a decade of APC supremacy, converting strongholds into battlegrounds and battlegrounds into its turf.

What makes this development even more significant is the open acknowledgment, even among APC supporters on social media, that NNPP practically controls the state. The symbolism is profound; Kano, one of the North’s most politically strategic states and one of the largest electoral prizes, appears to have shifted its centre of gravity. The NNPP’s grip represents more than just local strength; it is a sign of deep-rooted political realignment.

Meanwhile, in Kaduna the political narrative remains largely stable. The APC secured its base convincingly, signaling its continued dominance across the state. While other parties, including the ADC, fielded candidates and expressed grievances over the process, there is no indication of a tectonic shift similar to Kano’s. Kaduna’s results reinforce the APC’s organisational depth and structural advantage, which smaller parties will find difficult to counter without long-term grassroots investment.

Amid these outcomes, some commentators chose instead to mock the ADC, pointing to its poor performance as proof that it has no role to play in Nigeria’s politics. I believe such dismissals are premature. To be clear, I am not a member of the ADC, nor am I sympathetic to its coalition politics. But as an observer of Nigeria’s political process, I would caution against drawing hasty conclusions from these by-elections.

The ADC coalition is still in transition, trying to define its identity, align its internal structures, and position itself as a credible platform. Expecting the party to mobilise massively and win seats within such a short timeframe is unrealistic. The by-elections were never going to be its proving ground. What matters is not the present snapshot, but the possibilities the party might open up if it organises itself effectively before 2027.

Nigeria’s political history teaches us that parties can rise from obscurity to significance with surprising speed. The NNPP is the latest example. Only a few years ago, many dismissed it as a Kano-based experiment. Today, it is a dominant force in the state and a recognised player on the national stage. To assume the ADC could never follow a similar trajectory would be to underestimate the fluidity of our politics.

This does not mean the ADC is destined for prominence. Far from it. But the ruling APC, and indeed all parties, must guard against complacency. Political landscapes shift quickly, and voter frustration with the status quo can create openings for new voices. The ADC, if it succeeds in positioning itself as a party of integrity and reform, could one day capitalise on such discontent.

Elections in Nigeria are not just about numbers, but perception as well. How parties frame their role, whether as a dominant force or as an emerging alternative, matters deeply in shaping voter attitudes ahead of the next general elections. What by-elections often provide are insight into party strategies and weaknesses rather than final verdicts. For smaller parties like the ADC, the narrative they build in the coming months will be as critical as their ability to mobilize at the grassroots. If they succeed in presenting themselves as a structured, reform-minded alternative, they may gain traction among voters who are increasingly weary of the traditional political order.

Ultimately, the by-elections have issued three clear statements. First, the APC remains the strongest and most organised political force nationwide. Second, the NNPP’s dominance in Kano is not in doubt and represents a political reality that even some APC members have acknowledged. And third, while the ADC remains marginal for now, underestimating its future potential would be unwise.

As we look ahead to 2027, I had say the ground remains open. Nigerian politics has a way of surprising even the most seasoned analysts. For the APC, the takeaway should not be fear but vigilance: never assume that today’s underdog cannot become tomorrow’s contender.