The coming war

There are dark clouds hovering over the destiny of mankind. That much is for sure. Whether there would be a precipitous orgy of bloodletting, or the clouds dissipating into the sea of a radically new world order depends on the choices made by a few men and power centres. This is a pregnancy whose birth […]

There are dark clouds hovering over the destiny of mankind. That much is for sure. Whether there would be a precipitous orgy of bloodletting, or the clouds dissipating into the sea of a radically new world order depends on the choices made by a few men and power centres. This is a pregnancy whose birth we must await without bated breaths. This means heads or tails, war is on our doorsteps.

There is war coming, but it is not a forgone conclusion that this war does not have to be a kinetic whirlwind. Many people would be inclined to believe that the only reason there has not been another world war after the first two is because total war between world powers will consume the whole world and everyone in it. This is partly true, in my opinion at least, but man is not known to hold his peace indefinitely and unconditionally.

At the height of the war in Ukraine, there were calls from supposedly reasonable and knowledgeable people in the West for total war against Russia, because it has been conclusively proven to be a paper-tiger by little Ukraine. Some argued that Russian nukes are duds that don’t even work. Others swore that the Russian “war” economy could not survive another month.

With Trump 2.0 in office, it is fair to expect a lull on that front. Ukraine is no longer a trigger, but then for that same reason… Trump 2.0, there are talks of bombing raids on Iran’s military and nuclear sites. Apparently, the US is already moving military assets to strategic locations in preparations and the Iranians are also responding accordingly.

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I am one of those who is convinced that Trump is really only being Trump, and sending stealth bombers to Guam and Diego Garcia is really just another schoolyard tactic to force concessions out of Iran. If I were an American military planner, moving warplanes into strike positions and announcing it is certainly not how I approach a war with Iran.

But if there isn’t going to be a hot war between Russia and NATO, or between NATO and BRICS, and if Trump 2.0 will NOT attack Iran in deference to Zionist campaign of mass murder, that means there is no war on the horizon. Yet, war is definitely coming.

A few days back, Trump 2.0 made a sweeping declaration of war, trade war, basically against the whole world. The primary target was of course China, but China is no pushover. The Chinese promptly retaliated, announcing the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on all American goods while also restricting the export of rare-earth minerals to the US. The fallout of this saw a dip in stock markets across the world, and economists are warning of a slump that could rival the Great Depression.

A world ordered for decades by globalization and geo-economics has quickly become a world grounded in geopolitical risk. Accumulating shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict have eased, but they have nonetheless significantly reorganised global political structures and relationships.

While Trump’s economic policy is ostensibly to compete responsibly with rival superpowers as it pursues its own interests, the geopolitical implications on US protectionism will mean a gradual rollback of American hegemony. This fact will leave a large vacuum, a vacuum that may have to be filled by new actors through iron and blood.

Energy and climate change continue to be politically polarising issues, with global progress notably lacking on the climate transition. However, the recent energy price shock in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should catalyse decarbonisation efforts… which then catalyses the collapse of many resource-based economies including Nigeria.

The rise of nationalism and protectionism has led to increased scrutiny of the positive impacts of globalization. Factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts have exposed weaknesses in global supply chains. Businesses remain interested in cross-border economic engagement, but the anti-globalization movement poses a threat to economic growth and international relations.

Cyber-attacks are becoming more frequent and severe, and the human and financial impact of attacks continues to rise in line with the increasing digitisation of critical infrastructure. Cyber warfare represents a new frontier in global conflict, involving digital attacks aimed at disrupting, damaging, or infiltrating enemy critical infrastructure. Recent examples of major cyber warfare include the 2017 Wannacry ransomware attack and the 2021 ransomware attack on the US colonial pipeline. Iran and North Korea have substantial cyber warfare capabilities and they choose this tool as a means of asymmetric resistance to western hegemonic interests.

The foregoing geopolitical risks have significantly impacted the global economic outlook, influencing growth, inflation, financial markets, and supply chains. The hot conflicts cited [such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas/Houthi/Iran war] fuel regional instability and have impacted energy and food security, with higher prices leading to increased inflation rates.

The US-China relationship will continue to influence sourcing patterns and tariff costs, while governments in the Asia-Pacific region are implementing strategies to secure access to critical minerals. The opening months of 2025 have been especially challenging to the Nigerian security situation and these have the potential of spiralling into serious crisis.

Other headwinds, including structural challenges, are expected to weigh on global growth in the coming years. Despite these obstacles, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to be the key long-term growth engine. Weaker US growth and narrowing interest rate differentials suggest possible US dollar depreciation, but the US dollar’s dominance in international finance and as a global reserve currency is expected to persist in the meantime.

It’s much more than likely that there will not be a shooting war, at least till the end of the decade… but war is really just a sustained catastrophe that lays waste to a given geography. If that is the case, then much of the world is already at war. But what is on the horizon as far as I can see, is far scarier.