The deepening Ivory Coast impasse

The Ivorian situation continues to be a source of deep worry around the world, because of what the Kenyan Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, who has mediated on behalf of the African Union, calls its dangerous implications for democratic change of government in Africa. On January 23, the SUNDAY TIMES newspaper in the UK reported that […]

The Ivorian situation continues to be a source of deep worry around the world, because of what the Kenyan Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, who has mediated on behalf of the African Union, calls its dangerous implications for democratic change of government in Africa. On January 23, the SUNDAY TIMES newspaper in the UK reported that by the end of 2010, the Zimbabwean government clandestinely transferred arms to Laurent Gbagbo’s administration in Cote d’Ivoire. The consignment allegedly comprised small arms, mortars and ammunition, mainly of Chinese origin. The transfer was facilitated by the state-owned Zimbabwe Defence Industry (ZDI), and was supposedly at the behest of President Robert Mugabe. SUNDAY TIMES quoted “highly placed intelligence sources in the Zimbabwean capital”, which was not independently corroborated. Such a transfer, if it really happened, would have violated a UN embargo in place since 2002.

It is clear that the situation is becoming messier by the day and at the end of January, AllAfricadotcom, reported “high drama” at the AU headquarters, when Commission Chairman, Jean Ping, publicly clashed with what it described as “his controversially-appointed mediator to Cote d’Ivoire”, Raila Odinga. The clash had ensued after Odinga held a press conference ahead of the Peace and Security Summit convened to discuss the Ivorian situation. Procedurally, Odinga was expected to brief his ‘superiors’ in the Council first, after which they would deliberate on his report and other related matters before briefing the press. Ping himself had “faced a rapping from the leaders” over his handling of the crisis, especially his appointment of Odinga, seen as “a lowly premier”, to mediate between a president and an aspirant. Odinga’s “breach of protocol”, peeved the grandees and as AllAfrica reported, “there was some shouting, pushing and shoving”. In the meantime, Raila Odinga told the press that “Cote d’Ivoire symbolizes the great tragedy that seems to have befallen Africa, whereby some incumbents are not willing to give up power if they lose. This refusal is particularly egregious in Cote d’Ivoire’s case, since never has there been such internal, regional and international unanimity among independent institutions about the outcome of a disputed election in Africa”.

An even more curious element of the impasse is what is described as the meddlesomeness of the West, which was allegedly evident in the manner that the AU secretariat invited foreign ministers of seven Western countries, including France and Australia, to address African foreign ministers in the Peace and Security. These were said to be amazed at the turn of events that “had no precedent in the history of the AU”, since the Peace and Security Council is the AU’s most powerful organ which “has no room for outsiders yet western foreign ministers were invited to attempt to set the tone” for deliberations on Cote d’Ivoire”. AllAfrica also mentioned unconfirmed reports of French and American warships patrolling the waters off Cote d’Ivoire, just as the two countries have been at the forefront of efforts to force Laurent Gbagbo to step down.

It has also become clear that the ECOWAS threat to use peace has come to naught as the ultimatum given to Laurent Gbagbo by the regional body to step down came and passed without action, and the man is still sitting pretty. The inability of ECOWAS to break the impasse peacefully or through its ultimatum diminishes the authority of the bloc, at a time when some of the other African countries, especially from Southern and Eastern Africa seem not to be in favour of a gung-ho approach to the Ivorian situation. The region’s largest army is in Nigeria, which faces internal security challenges of its own, while other observers say a major problem is the danger of becoming bogged down in an urban warfare if ECOWAS were to carry out its threat to militarily intervene in Cote d’Ivoire. There is a related problem of a lack of “operational intelligence” to track down Gbagbo and his inner circle, should there be a resort to the military option.

But by early 2011, the UN was reporting that at least 210 people had been killed in the wake of the impasse which followed the re-run elections of November 28, 2010. This follows allegations that troops loyal to Gbagbo had been blocking access to a site of what was suspected to be a mass grave. In the period under review, there was also a flurry of diplomatic activities by both ECOWAS and the AU to persuade Gbagbo to vacate power, and they all failed to move the Ivorian strongman.

The United States and the European Union had in the wake of the developments, imposed a travel ban on Gbagbo and his inner circle, just as the World Bank and the regional West African central bank froze Ivorian finances in an attempt to weaken Gbagbo’s hold on power. Early in 2011, Cote d’Ivoire missed nearly $30million interest payment on its $2.3billion Eurobond but even the London Club chair and senior vice president of debt restructuring at BNP Paribas, Thierry Desjardins, noted that “there is a grace period of 30 days, they are not in default”. Similarly, cocoa output from Cote d’Ivoire was said to be running near even with the deliveries from 2010; however, exporters warn that if violence escalates, it would likely pose a threat to shipments for the rest of the season. It is the fear of escalation and actual violence that led more than 18,000 Ivoiriens to leave their country for refuge in neighbouring Liberia. In 2009, the country exported cocoa worth $2.53b and knowing the importance of earnings from cocoa, Alassane Ouattara, the internationally-recognised winner of the Ivoirien election, called for a ban on exports to cut funding to Laurent Gbagbo. Following the call, cocoa prices shot up, with FRANCE24, reporting cocoa futures on the Liffe commodities exchange in London going up 3.9percent to 2,223 pounds per ton, the highest since early August 2010. Cocoa had traded as low as 1,770 pounds in November 2010.

One of the main worries of the international community is a return to civil war in the wake of the unending impasse. As a matter of fact, the Prime Minister, Guillame Soro, concluded that Cote d’Ivoire was already in a “civil war situation”. Soro added that “this is what is at stake: Either we assist in the installation of democracy in Ivory Coast or we stand indifferent and allow democracy to be assassinated”. Soro went further to say that “all dictators are alike and all dictators will not negotiate their departure-they are made to leave. For the time being, we are letting diplomacy do its work but when the time comes, each of us will assume our responsibilities”.  On the other hand, Laurent Gbagbo in a televised address which responded directly to threats of military actions said, “no one has a right to call on foreign armies to invade his country”. He added that, “our greatest duty to our country is to defend it from foreign attack”.

What seems clear is that each side of the Ivoirien impasse is digging ever deeper into its position and it is becoming increasingly difficult to find a common ground or broker a meaningful compromise. Laurent Gbagbo lost the election but has refused to vacate power and being from the south, he mobilizes hundreds of thousands of supporters, who fear a loss of power and its consequences. And the south is also the seat of the wealth of Cote d’Ivoire. On the other hand, Alassane Ouattara, the winner of the election is holed up in the Golf Hotel, unable to get access to the levers of power and has to be defended by UN peacekeeping troops. Yet the world must find a way to ease Gbagbo from the presidency, so that a contagion of leaders who lose power but choose to sit tight does not catch on in the continent. This year, 17 African countries are expected to go to the polls.  It will send the wrong signal all around the continent, if the impasse in Cote d’Ivoire is not broken, and the electoral contest is not resolved in favour of the winner; in this case, Alassane Ouattara.