The focus is to appeal to the South only

International pressure is mounting on the Tinubu administration to address the insecurity issues in the country. Trump is pushing with his rhetoric, alleging Christian genocide in Northern Nigeria. It has become a global discussion, and people are pushed to take sides. Yes, we all know Trump is distracting the media away from the Israeli genocide. […]

International pressure is mounting on the Tinubu administration to address the insecurity issues in the country. Trump is pushing with his rhetoric, alleging Christian genocide in Northern Nigeria. It has become a global discussion, and people are pushed to take sides.

Yes, we all know Trump is distracting the media away from the Israeli genocide. He has succeeded but has left a bitter taste in Nigeria’s unity. Whatever the position one takes, the divided nation will sympathise with the dominant religion in their region. This means Muslim North and Christian South. As for those paying attention to what Tinubu is doing in the South, you do not need to think too deeply to come to a speculative conclusion.

Locally, Tinubu is focused only on winning re-election in 2027, rather than governing the country. And it is this ambition that gave Trump the room to use the country in his distraction game.

Tinubu is investing more in the South than in the North. Last week’s federal executive council meeting approved over N400 billion, which will be primarily spent in the South. Analyses have been made on outrageous spending in Lagos alone. Several evidence have been provided in all the budgets passed since Tinubu came to power. Recall the instances where Northern senators became casualties for speaking out. There is also a disagreement over federal government recruitment, where the South is consistently favoured—CBN, Customs, to name a few.

The Lagos-Calabar coastal highway is not just another elephant project but also a political honey trap. The tactic has attracted the South-South Governors to support him, as it will be cheaper for them to ride on a N17 trillion success than spend state allocations on the people. The excuse is that this is an opportunity to benefit from federal allocations, as they felt deprived under the previous governments, including one led by Goodluck Jonathan.

Similarly, the South East governors are also shifting their base to support the Tinubu administration, as they predict free-riding on federal budgets will be cheaper than spending state allocations.

But before Trump’s distraction tactics came into play, the Tinubu administration was already capitalising on the “phantom coup” to whip up sentiments and division across the country. First, a leaked list of 16 military officers was leaked. The names of northerners dominated it. But as the military refused to explain, it is easier to see their tactic. They just want to leave it to the public to reach its own conclusion. And the innuendo is that this is a northern coup. General Chris Musa became one of the leading casualties, with many rumoured to follow. But as we witness now, most casualties are Northerners.

Surprisingly, no one has made the innuendo that the coup is a South South agenda, despite the alleged funders being from the South South. Former Petroleum Minister and Bayelsa State Governor, Timipre Sylva, is being investigated. His brother and driver are in custody. And they are not alone. Another report also stated that some federal government officials from the South South are under investigation.

And before Trump’s rhetoric overshadowed this news, the media was reporting that the number of military officers under investigation had risen to 42. But if this is true—which many doubt—the military and the government have kept the list close to their chests. This is unlike what happened earlier. In this political season, one can easily sum up that they have achieved their goal by leaking the names of Northerners; they have whipped up Southern sympathy.

Those who believed there was actually a coup attempt should analyse the celebration ceremony of General CG Musa, former CDS. If there were a coup, his retirement would not be a celebration; it would be sorrowful, or even a court-martial. Then also watch the dancing video of the Chief of Defence Intelligence (CDI), Lt. Gen. Undiandeye, as he celebrates his promotion to his new rank. Surely, if the coup attempt was genuine, the officer in charge of the investigation could not exhibit such unprofessionalism. It is easy to insinuate that the outcome of the coup investigation is being determined by promoting the chief investigator.

But it is not just the CDI. The quick promotion of the service Chiefs speaks volumes about the credibility of the allegations. We all know that a reward is usually paid after the investigation is concluded. Again, that is assuming there was a coup.

The whole event looks like the goal has been achieved—appealing to the South that the North dislikes one of their own so badly that they planned a military takeover. It is easier to consolidate the military now as 2027 approaches, to show voters that they are a force loyal to the regional master.

This is nothing new. They are using every opportunity to whip up division.  The Southern voters feel they are under attack from the North. Narratives of funding deprivation have been created. They have made promises that sound too good to be true, but they give the illusion that they can be achieved. Their lukewarm attitude towards Trump’s allegation has provoked ethnic intolerance through illogical but emotionally charged narratives.

Similarly, recent talk of a phantom coup and the alleged Christian genocide in the North follows the same pattern. Despite public denials, the rumour spread quickly, especially in the South, and this has generated deep grievances against the North. The effect has stirred old suspicions and suggests that history is repeating itself. They did not have to stage a coup, kill Christians in the North or finish the coastal highways. They just want people talking about it, which is enough to provoke the divisions.

These are well-crafted agendas that twist the narrative to make the Northerners look like people who are desperate to grab power. The goal is to condition people to think that the country is about to fall apart and that only the Tinubu leadership can prevent collapse. The coup, the Southern projects, the lopsided appointments and the insecurity reports are less about fact than about control. They annoy the sympathisers, confuse the critics, and deepen division—all in the name of defending the republic from enemies that do not exist.