The ‘long run’ as mirage

Although almost at the point of death, he is still being re-assured that in the “foreseeable future” his health would improve, and that “ultimately” he would be fine. Is he wise or foolish? Should he keep faith with the person who has kept him hospitalized all his life, or should he try someone else? Nigeria […]

Although almost at the point of death, he is still being re-assured that in the “foreseeable future” his health would improve, and that “ultimately” he would be fine. Is he wise or foolish? Should he keep faith with the person who has kept him hospitalized all his life, or should he try someone else? Nigeria is a serially sick nation which has failed to solve its most elementary developmental problems, or make commendable progress in social justice, yet chooses to stick with the same people who despite their failure conti-nue to tell us that we have “great potential”. Anyone who thinks the only relevant factors in development are economic will always continue to believe that Nigeria’s has potential.
We are the largest economy in the West African region and given our considerable resources and coastal location there has always been natural potential for strong growth. The problem is that our great “potential” has only resulted in tragic failure. Despite all our economic woes, lack of electricity and infrastructure, ethnic divisions and officially endorsed corruption, apparently there are those who are still convinced we have “potential”. The latest McKinsey Global Institute’s report on Nigeria says “what people tend to overlook is Nigeria’s extraordinary advantages for the future growth.  These include a large consumer market, a strategic geographical location, and a young and highly entrepreneurial population.” This rosy picture makes it appear as if our prospects for the future are good. The only problem is that none of these so-called “advantages” are new; yet somehow they are always good for our future, never our present! The vibrant young population referred to is either busy voting with their feet to relocate to Europe or America, or occupied with failing examinations en mass! The bulk of our population is largely uneducated and lacking in technological skills, with little purchasing power.
Truth be told, growing numbers are more of a liability than an asset to the nation. According to McKinsey the causes of our persistent poverty are low farm productivity, poor job creation in manufacturing, and limited access to mechanized tools.  None of these problems requires an inordinate amount of intelligence to solve, but somehow we seem to be grappling with them since independence. The revision of our Gross Domestic Product, which overnight turned us into Africa’s largest economy, shows that we have at least fulfilled our potential for continuously deceiving ourselves. The claim that internationally reputable companies are investing in Nigeria is actually true, but a cursory look at those that have made moves into the country shows our mistaken priorities, and the selfish un-seriousness with which our leaders approach developmental issues.
In a nation where the bulk of the population lives below the internationally accepted poverty line, luxury item suppliers such as Porsche, Mac and L’Oreal Cosmetics, Rolex and diamond merchants  have all moved in to take advantage of the excess wealth accumulated by those in and around government. The outrageous profits of telecommunications and satellite TV derived from their sub-standard services, forms basis for the reclassification of our fortunes. They are impoverishing our people and laughing to the bank. As for the banks themselves, their extortionist, sub-standard, customer unfriendly services allow them to make profits by deducting money from customers’ accounts, rather than by lending money.  Even as our manufacturing industry is dying and unemployment and poverty are becoming more widespread, the number of Nigerian millionaires is expected to increase by approximately 40% in the next four years. Anyone who believes that a fairer, more just and more equitable society can ever evolve under this dispensation is suffering from delusions.  Nigeria is a rich nation full of poor people, and the responsibility for this rests squarely with current and past administrations.
McKinsey’s upbeat report doesn’t make mention of the fact that our political leaders are morally bankrupt and whenever given the opportunity fall to the temptations of corruptly accumulating personal wealth. McKinsey assumes that those in charge of our affairs in future will change their motivation for seeking office or corrupt attitudes, enabling us to finally seize continuously squandered opportunities. Despite our history being one of economic stagnation, declining welfare and social instability, the World Bank still says that over the “medium and long term” our future prosperity can be assured by good policies that will enhance improvements in non-oil growth. Who is listening? How long is the long term?  Nigerians are weary of waiting. So little of our potential has been realized because previous efforts at planning were always based on the elusive “long run” rather than the realizable “short run”. We want, as one lorry driver wrote boldly the side of his vehicle, “better today not greater tomorrow”!  The goal post has always shifted. First there was the 1980’s Structural Adjustment Program, then 1990’s Economic Roadmap.
Then Millennium Development Goals, then Vision 2010, then vision 202020, now even that isn’t feasible, it’s now 2050! Meanwhile those who survived the trials and tribulations of the Structural Adjustment Program are in their twilight years having lived their lives in a depressed backward economy.   The French say “Plus ca change mais plus c’est la meme!” which means “everything has changed but everything remains the same”.
All our past leaders have promised us “long run” benefits and have failed to deliver, but here we are today now being told about the “long run” benefits of an undefined “transformation agenda”.  Whenever leaders want to make excuses for their failures, they always try to convince people that they will be better off in the long run; whereas the plain and simple truth is the long run doesn’t actually exist.

(Editor’s note: The headline over Issa Aremu’s column of yesterday should have read “The trial of Brother Nuhu Ribadu.” The error is regretted).