The North has made many political strategic missteps, 2027 might be the last

Today, Northern Nigeria can be described as Camille Anna Paglia once rhetorically asked about her society “Are we like late Rome, infatuated with past glories, ruled by a complacent, greedy elite, and hopelessly powerless to respond to changing conditions?” This question is important because for decades, Northern Nigeria was the political heartbeat of the country […]

Today, Northern Nigeria can be described as Camille Anna Paglia once rhetorically asked about her society “Are we like late Rome, infatuated with past glories, ruled by a complacent, greedy elite, and hopelessly powerless to respond to changing conditions?” This question is important because for decades, Northern Nigeria was the political heartbeat of the country – commanding numbers, unity, and organisational strength that made its dominance seem inevitable. But that dominance is now waning. Our weak and selfish elite have failed to respond. In recent electoral cycles, Northern politicians have grown increasingly fragmented, reactive, and, in many ways, disconnected from the broader national pulse. This decline has its roots in a series of strategic missteps over the past five decades.

At independence, Northern Nigeria emerged as the most politically organised region. The Northern People’s Congress (NPC), under Sir Ahmadu Bello and Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa, capitalised on demographic strength and regional cohesion to shape the First Republic. Even during military rule, Northern officers held sway, maintaining the region’s grip on national leadership. For instance, at the beginning, the Biafran War initially pitted the southeastern region of Nigeria against the northern region. Later, the war strategy was expanded to involve the rest of the country. This era instilled a sense of entitlement to power—rooted in the belief that the region’s population and military legacy guaranteed perpetual political influence.

The first cracks began to show during the Second Republic (1979–1983). Although President Shehu Shagari, led the country, his party, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), failed to build genuine national consensus. The West, under Obafemi Awolowo’s Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), remained distant. The situation worsened in 1993 when the presumed winner of the presidential election, MKO Abiola – a candidate with a rare pan-Nigerian appeal – was denied his mandate. The silence or lukewarm response of many Northern elites to the annulment created deep resentment in the South. It is true that General Hassan Katsina and MD Yusufu attempted to help Abiola to claim his mandate. Generally, only a handful northern politicians opposed the annulment. It was a costly mistake: the North was seen as placing regional interests above democratic principles.

The return to democracy in 1999 brought with it a power-sharing formula within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), ensuring that the presidency rotated between North and South. However, this stability masked an emerging flaw – overreliance on aging political elites and patronage networks. A pivotal moment came in 2010 when President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua passed away. Rather than recalibrating and preparing for the 2011 election, many Northern leaders resisted Vice President Goodluck Jonathan’s succession, despite constitutional provisions. Against strong opposition, on Tuesday, February 9, 2010, the National Assemble invoked the Doctrine of Necessity to empower the Vice President to serve as acting president. Their opposition fractured the PDP and eroded alliances, particularly with the South-South. This miscalculation allowed Jonathan to consolidate power, during his term (2010 to 2015), while Northern politicians became increasingly divided between traditional loyalists and emerging opposition voices.

The 2015 election brought the North back to the apex of national power through Muhammadu Buhari. His victory, however, presented an opportunity the region failed to use wisely. Rather than using this presidency to unify the country, strengthen federal character, and invest in youth empowerment, Buhari’s administration was widely criticised for nepotism and insularity. The North may have controlled power, but it lost goodwill across the South and Middle Belt. Furthermore, the North did little to groom new leaders or build national alliances. By 2023, the region was left with no consensus candidate and fragmented support for Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and others – while Bola Tinubu deftly capitalised on national coalitions to secure the presidency.

The 2023 election was the clearest sign of Northern political disarray. Once a united bloc, the North became fractured along sub-regional lines: the North West leaned toward Kwankwaso, the North East toward Atiku, and parts of the North Central remained undecided. This fragmentation diluted the region’s electoral leverage and reduced its influence in national power calculations. Tinubu won in only 12 states, garnering 8,794,726 votes (36.61%). The runner-up, Abubakar, also carried 12 states but secured 6,984,520 votes (29.07%) and needed additional support – less than a quarter of the combined popular votes of the other two opposition candidates – to claim victory. Essentially, the opposition fragmented their own chances. For the first time in recent history, the North was a kingmaker to no one.

Northern Nigeria’s diminished influence is not irreversible. Clearly, the north cannot afford another strategic misstep in 2027. To redeem itself, the north requires a bold shift from power preservation to genuine leadership. Some key steps include: (i) Rebuilding National Coalitions: The North must move beyond ethno-regional alliances and invest in inclusive, pan-Nigerian politics. This is very important. One way to really challenge the incumbency power of Tinubu is to anoint a southern presidential candidate and pair him with a strong northern vice-presidential candidate. No other northern candidate should contest. (ii) Empowering a New Generation: Leadership succession should prioritize competence, vision, and national outlook—not just loyalty or legacy. (iii) Reimagining Political Education: Establishing think tanks, leadership academies, and regional policy forums will help prepare future leaders for modern governance challenges. And (iv) Prioritizing Developmental Politics: The North’s credibility will be restored not by rhetoric, but by delivering on education, security, and economic opportunities for its people.

Northern Nigeria’s political decline is a cautionary tale of complacency, and failure to evolve. While history afforded the region a central role in shaping Nigeria, the future will only reward those who adapt, build bridges, and lead with integrity. In a country as diverse as Nigeria, no region can afford to rely on demographics or nostalgia alone. As outline above, the north has made many political strategic missteps and missed many opportunities to lead. I am afraid, disunited and half-hearted challenge to Tinubu might be the north’s last mistake. As Paglia once beautifully asked, are the northern politician “hopelessly powerless to respond to changing conditions?”

 

Baba El-Yakubu is a Professor of Chemical Engineering at Ahmadu Bello University. Email: [email protected]