The odds against Biafra

In May 1967, Biafra began with a wily, charismatic and highly educated leader, the Oxford-trained historian and army officer, Lt Col Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, the governor of the defunct Eastern Region. A video clip currently making the rounds in the social media quotes Ojukwu as disowning any attempt by anyone to agitate again for Biafra, […]

In May 1967, Biafra began with a wily, charismatic and highly educated leader, the Oxford-trained historian and army officer, Lt Col Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, the governor of the defunct Eastern Region. A video clip currently making the rounds in the social media quotes Ojukwu as disowning any attempt by anyone to agitate again for Biafra, which according to him would be a grave mistake. In the clip, Ojukwu can be seen and heard telling his foreign female interviewer:  “Yes, I led, proudly, the first one (civil war), I don’t think a second one is necessary. We should have learnt from that first one, otherwise the death would have been to no avail, it would all have been in vain.”
In contrast, Nnamdi Kanu, Ojukwu’s miserable “successor” and self-styled leader of the so called Indigenous People of Biafra, an unknown quantity before now, is beginning his own struggle for Biafra from the prison. He has no military background and no public service experience to fall back on. He only comes with a beautiful flag and a muckraking pirate radio station broadcasting to Nigeria. It is doubtful if any form of blackmail or ultimatum can force the President Muhammadu Buhari government to release Kanu who was arrested on 18th October, 2015 at the Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos. Whatever are the demerits of detaining him, this government is determined to put Kanu on trial so as to make him account for all the slander and call to arms against Nigeria. You cannot approach a soldier President with a treasonable quest for a country hitherto defeated. Those who would brandish a red flag at the bull will have to live with the certainty of its bloody charge at them.
More importantly, this rump of Biafra, certainly minus the South South, is not the Republic that the Igbos had dreamt of. The current map of the willing Biafrans is a shadow of the earlier attempt and they will be surrounded by Nigeria where war will be perpetually fought for 100 years or more. Biafra will be devoid of the middle belt states of Benue and Kogi which have abundant land to grow yam, palm oil, beans, rice, fruits and vegetables. Nnamdi Kanu’s Biafra will be a landlocked state that lacks access to the sea. Without doubt, the rest of Nigeria will not allow Biafra to have an inch territory at the sea and a second sea-borne invasion from Port Harcourt is forgone, assuming the IPOB’s goal materialises.
It is a game changer that the Anioma Igbo, the Isoko, the Itsekiri and the Urhobo all consider Nigeria as the place for them to blossom and not in a small, narrow and landlocked “zoo” state led by Igbos. The Afemai, the Ishan and Owan in Edo State are happy and hopeful that the Nigerian condition will improve and see no need to opt out. The Efik, the Ejagham and Bekwarra of Cross River State, all believe in a better Nigeria and not some old-fashioned, emotional phantom of a state with uncertain viability. Neither can Nnamdi Kanu count on the membership of the Ibibios, the Annang, Eket and Oron people of Akwa Ibom State in the new “zoo” he wants to create. Even the Ijaws are not enthusiastic of Biafra. Having realised that they can lead Nigeria itself, the Ijaw fish cannot accept to swim in the small pond that these agitators want to establish. The Ibani, the Eleme, the Etche, Kalabaris, Ogba, the Ogonis and even their cousins – the Ikwerres – are all wary of the latest experiment of the Igbos. Almost every minority group worth its name has distanced itself from the struggle for a state that puts them under the dominion of Igbos in that part of Nigeria.
The IPOB are also lucky, the person at Aso Villa is Muhammadu Buhari, a veteran of the civil war. Having fought in the war as a junior officer, Buhari as commander in chief will be a tough opponent for any armed separatist. In terms of foreign support, Kanu’s Biafra is a loser. Today, there is no possibility that Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, Tanzania, France and Zambia which had hitherto recognised Biafra could do so again. As usual, the British have rejected sovereignty for Biafra and reaffirmed support for Nigeria’s territorial integrity.
As for the rest of the country, particularly the hated giant called the North, the only thing they have for those looking for Biafra is contempt; and sometimes, sympathy because our people see it as a sure path to self-destruction. It is absolutely confounding that a group of people are asking for a separate country just six months after they have dismounted from the helms of affairs which they had dominated for five years in a row. No wonder President Buhari has refused to say much about this development. A peaceful way to “Republic of Biafra” is practically impossible at this point in our history. The only thing that awaits those who take up arms in the quest for Biafra is another bloody war.
However, unlike these hopeless Biafrans, the rest of our citizens are optimistic that Muhammadu Buhari can secure the country, revitalise the economy, minimise corruption and create employment for our people. It is certainly a new day in Nigeria and we are extremely happy that the ugly, sleazy records of the Jonathan administration are steadily unfolding and the only person who can spearhead this is Muhammadu Buhari. Thus, Nigeria and Buhari we believe, not Biafrans.