The paradox of recovery, as Nigeria’s macroeconomic targets fall in place
Nigeria’s macroeconomic dashboard is beginning to show signs of stability. What at first seemed an impossible task is taking a concrete shape. Inflation has been Nigerians’ nightmare since the second half of 2023. But that will soon be over. From a high of 34.8 per cent in December 2024, inflation has eased to 16.05 per […]
Nigeria’s macroeconomic dashboard is beginning to show signs of stability. What at first seemed an impossible task is taking a concrete shape. Inflation has been Nigerians’ nightmare since the second half of 2023. But that will soon be over. From a high of 34.8 per cent in December 2024, inflation has eased to 16.05 per cent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. There is a high probability that when November’s figures are released by mid-December, the figure will not be far from the government’s target of 15 per cent for the year.
As for inflation, so is it in the foreign exchange market, where the naira is holding steady. The nation’s currency has performed creditably well. Yesterday, November 18, 2025, the exchange rate was N1,447.43, below the government’s target for the year. In short, the exchange rate has steadied after months of turbulence.
These two elements – inflation and currency depreciation- provoked an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis in Africa’s most populous country that threatened the lives of millions. The cost of everything, from food to toiletries, went out of the reach of ordinary Nigerians.
Even fiscal reforms, which were considered long overdue, are narrowing deficits and improving revenue flows. The government has tackled the seemingly intractable tax challenge, and come January 2026, a new tax regime will come into effect, as the government looks forward to improved revenue. The gate to the Ways and Means facility at the central bank seems to have been shut for good, closing access to that free money to the government. And for the first time in many months, government officials can point to targets that are beginning to align with projections. These are not trivial achievements.
Yet behind these encouraging indicators lies a more stubborn reality: most Nigerians are still waiting for evidence that the economy is truly recovering. As the government’s macroeconomic targets fall in place, the country must confront a deeper question. What do these numbers mean for the people they are supposed to help? Are we confronting a paradox of recovery here?
For millions of households, life remains defined by suffocating prices and uncertain incomes. Food inflation continues to erode purchasing power, leaving many families with fewer choices and slimmer meals. True, inflation has eased considerably from its level in December. But what has happened to certain macroeconomic variables that underpin the daily realities of citizens? What has happened to transport fares that bus and taxi drivers hiked in May and June 2023? Transport costs, both intra-city and interstate, remain elevated, a huge drain on people’s pockets. The current inflation reality is missing these.
The general price level is declining, but millions of urban dwellers have had their rents raised by their landlords – in some cases by over 100 per cent. The current inflation realities will not and possibly cannot reverse the rents already being enforced by the house owners. And the hapless tenants must pay the new rates or look elsewhere for accommodation, as others have done with tears.
Many of the landlords raised their rents on account of the deep depreciation of the naira. In fact, some of them are known to have complained that the rents they were receiving then, when converted into foreign currencies, whether the Dollar or Pounds Sterling, fell grossly short of the amounts they previously received on their property. The landlords do not want to know whether they built their houses in the days of low inflation and strong naira; they define their reality by the costs they experience in the current milieu.
As economists say, “prices are sticky downwards,” an acknowledgement that once prices rise, they have the tendency to remain high. This is exactly what Nigerians are experiencing now. Most prices went up in the wave of inflationary spikes. Our current data cannot reflect.
Nigeria is at a delicate moment. The macroeconomic signals are promising, but the reality remains harsh. The risk now is premature celebration—confusing technical wins for genuine recovery. Obviously, the government has laid the groundwork for stability; the task ahead is to convert that stability into broadly shared prosperity. The real measure of economic reform is not the alignment of targets but the comfort and confidence of citizens.
Still, the emerging stability is not meaningless. Macroeconomic discipline is the foundation upon which sustainable prosperity is built. It is difficult for any economy to thrive when inflation is runaway, and the currency is in free fall. Nigeria has been through these cycles before; stabilisation is necessary to prevent even deeper hardship. The more urgent challenge now is ensuring that the benefits of these macro improvements become visible in households and businesses across the country.
Until Nigerians feel the impact in their pockets, the country’s recovery will remain a story told in spreadsheets rather than in homes, markets, and workplaces. The macroeconomic targets may be falling in place, but true success will only come when the numbers align with the daily realities of the people.