The political landscape, 3 years on

In his inauguration speech on May 29, 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu told Nigerians that the election that brought him into office was not only “a hard fought contest”, but was also fairly won, adding that “since the advent of the Fourth Republic, Nigeria has not held an election of better quality”. However, three years […]

In his inauguration speech on May 29, 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu told Nigerians that the election that brought him into office was not only “a hard fought contest”, but was also fairly won, adding that “since the advent of the Fourth Republic, Nigeria has not held an election of better quality”.

However, three years on the saddle and ahead of the 2027 general elections, where Tinubu is seeking re-election, some Nigerians and members of the opposition see things differently. 

Since assumption of office three years ago, the president has made impact on the political firmament of the country, even though some analysts believe that much has not been done to actually elevate the political space and give Nigerians the right environment to operate politically. 

In the last three years, the administration, in collaboration with the National Assembly, has produced an amended 2026 Electoral Act to guide election issues.

In October last year, President Tinubu also appointed a new Independent National Electoral Commission  (INEC) Chairman, Joash Amupitan.  Although the appointment faced some criticism over his alleged political leaning, he has since settled down to work. 

Closer home in his own political party, under the watch of the president, former Kano State Governor Umar Ganduje, was replaced by Professor Yilwatda Nentawe as the national chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). 

Also since the last election, INEC has registered new political parties as a way of expanding the political space. 

The new political parties are the Democratic Leadership Alliance (DLA) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), bringing the total number of registered political parties to 21.

While all these can be likened to the president leaving his touch on the political development of the country, opinion still remain divided on whether these culminate into a free, fair and credible elections in 2027. 

 

Factions and defections

Another political development that analysts said is too imperative to ignore in the polity is the level of high profile defections from the opposition political parties to the ruling party and the high level of disputes within the political parties, especially the main opposition parties. 

Even though the Presidency denied any involvement  many say that the actions and inactions of Tinubu’s allies and appointees have left some Nigerians wondering if the administration is not encouraging the divisions within the political parties. 

From the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Labour Party (LP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) the story is the same with factions threatening the foundation of the parties. 

In the past three years, the nation witnessed the highest level of defection of prominent opposition figures to the ruling party. Governors Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Umo Eno, (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah, (Enugu), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Douye Diri, (Bayelsa), Dauda Lawal, (Zamfara), Caleb Mutfwang, (Plateau), Ahmadu Fintiri, (Adamawa) and Agbu Kefas, (Taraba) all left the PDP for the All Progressives Congress. 

 

‘Nigeria’s democracy retrogressing’

Assessing the political trends political analysts said we were witnessing a retrogression in the democratic process.

Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, Executive Director, Civil Society Legislative Advocacy and Head of Transparency International, Nigeria, told Daily Trust that the country is currently experiencing what he called “democratic backsliding’’. 

He said, “The democratic backsliding, in the last three years, has gone bad as you can see how some powerful individuals, whether from the ruling party or close to the ruling party or close to the president or some of them who are holding positions, are actually undermining democracy and creating chaos, and hijacking  judiciary for their own personal use. 

“So, democratic backsliding has happened terribly. If you look at lack of judicial independence, if you look at the collapse of confidence in our institutions, these are things that have happened in the last three years of this administration.”

Rafsanjani said the democratic backsliding is tampering with the consolidation of democracy because, “we are witnessing serious undermining of democratic tenets by some people who have pocketed, through corruption, the judiciary and they are even boasting that whatever they want will happen. 

“We can see that even from the little experiences we have seen of some of the public officials demonstrating and showing lack of respect for democratic tenets and also undermining the judiciary and political parties.

“This is the first time we are seeing this kind of calculated attempts to deprive opposition political parties from even contesting elections by creating chaos in their party,” he alleged. 

Speaking on the amended Electoral Act, he said it is still a mixed reaction, arguing that the consensus arrangement has undermined popular participation of party members. 

“The governors practically just decide who should represent the people; they decide who should have a particular position. The consensus has helped to aid the elimination of popular and genuine aspirants who will want to contest elections.” 

 

Defections to ruling party confounding, concerning – Jide Ojo 

Also speaking with Daily Trust, Public Affairs analyst and a Development Consultant, Jide Ojo said there had not been any major departure from what transpired under the late former President Muhammadu Buhari, but added that the only issue is the “massive defections that we have seen from the opposition to the ruling party, which is unprecedented”.

“We’ve not been able to have a constitutional alteration. There has not been political restructure. The only thing that has happened under this administration in the last three years, political-wise, is the change in leadership of INEC, the new electoral act 2026, which the president signed on February 18th.

“INEC registered  additional three political parties, two of them by court orders and one by its own volition. Aside from this, I’m struggling to remember if there has been any major landmark development beyond, the massive defections that we have seen from the opposition to the ruling party, which is unprecedented. 

“It’s something that, as a political researcher, I find very confounding and concerning.” 

Ojo alluded the situation to the main opposition party, adding that as at 2023, the Peoples Democratic Party was the main opposition party, “today that party is factionalised and is on the brink of extinction. Right now, they have two factions selling nomination forms and conducting party primaries.” 

He said out of 12 governors that the PDP had in 2023 after the election, only the Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde is remaining. 

He explained further that the mass defection that is being witnessed under this administration is “unprecedented”.

“Since 1999, I’ve been on the field building capacities of political parties and participating in election observation and analysis. I’ve never seen such massive defection, not even when APC was registered. They don’t have as many as 11 governors defecting from one party to the ruling party.”

Ojo said there are now more factionalised political parties than there were before. “today we have PDP, SDP, Labour, ADC factionalised and those are the top ones. So the point is, save for what I’ve said earlier, that Tinubu gave us a new Electoral Act 2026, he gave us a new INEC Chairman and commissioners. Also, he broadened political space with the registration of three new political parties, among which is NDC. Apart from that nothing is new. 

“So, what we can call the achievement of Bola Tinubu in the last three years is still out there and cannot be said to be something that is outstanding. Because even the Electoral Act 2026 is generating a lot of furore. It has not been properly tested. 

“You know the attendants hullabalo that greeted that piece of legislation to the extent that even the National Assembly themselves have to now alter the Electoral Act over issues of, pre-election matters”.

He said nothing has really changed as the political actors are still behaving the way they were under the PDP administration years ago. 

He added that the imposition of candidates under the guise of consensus is another worrisome point.