THE SEARCH FOR 2011
Not so in Nigeria; incumbents don’t lose elections, and where they do, it is usually through the intervention of the law courts, not on the strength of the peoples’ votes. Ninety per cent of the time Nigerians are stuck with leaders they didn’t vote for and therefore do not recognize: power grabbers in uniform; or […]
Not so in Nigeria; incumbents don’t lose elections, and where they do, it is usually through the intervention of the law courts, not on the strength of the peoples’ votes. Ninety per cent of the time Nigerians are stuck with leaders they didn’t vote for and therefore do not recognize: power grabbers in uniform; or civilians that rig themselves into office. As usual Professor Chinua Achebe, Nigeria’s and one of the world’s favourite novelists was right on target when he declared that the trouble with Nigeria is simply that of the failure of leadership.
Any people that lose out on the right kind of leadership invariably end up losers in everything else. Nigeria presents an excellent example: every ingredient necessary and essential for greatness is available except an honest and patriotic leadership. It is not possible to say at what precise moment Nigeria stopped marching forward; and started moving around in circle instead, but January 15 1966, February 13 1976 and even August 1985 are reasonable options for academic debates. Advocates of what they call Sovereign National Conference (SNC) like the Afenefere Secretary Wale Odumakin would even trace our present shameful state of self-underdevelopment to 1914. All that of course is academic.
What matters is that we are where we are and that is that. We are stuck with each other and the country is stuck with us. It is a marriage that neither party is comfortable with; and even less comforting is the likely consequence of a divorce. Even those suggesting a divorce of some kind, whether through a SNC or otherwise, do so to satisfy their ego and ingratiate themselves with the mass of the people; not because they believe it is a solution, or even feasible. And to think that we are all going through all these difficulties because we lack at least a dozen men with good intentions and the will to provide good governance is quite frustrating. I suppose that is the real cost for rigging elections; taking 1979 as a base year, if we had been allowed to choose our leaders from the local councils to the federal government through a transparent electoral system, by now we would have come round to choosing the right type of leaders that would have made the issues of true federalism, resource control, Shariah, sectarian violence, settler/indigene and lately savior-terrorism, non-existent, or mere phrases in the dictionary. When the leadership fails everything else crumbles, and whether you accept it or not, you end up with a failed state.
But even failed states do recover; Ghana was one, to the extent that its citizens started fleeing home in all directions, with thousands of them taking refuge here in Nigeria as economic refugees, until they were thrown out. Now Ghana is a model state, possibly the most promising black nation on earth. Liberia was also a basket case, but last week its president Ms Eileen Johnson Sirleaf was in Nigeria to settle a rift between two countries that once contributed forces to provide peace in her war-torn country.
Zimbabwe’s economy might be in shambles, but its political structure is more solid and its elections more credible than Nigeria’s; even Rwanda which was once seen as beyond redemption is now thriving, consolidating on its gains after a genocide that claimed nearly a million lives. Is Nigeria cursed?
No. But if we flunk the promise that 2011 offers, we won’t need to ask whether we are cursed or not; it simply wouldn’t matter. Come 2011, these are some of the advantages we should cash in on:
PRESIDENT YAR’ADUA: Assuming that the substantive president Umaru Musa Yar’adua makes sufficient recovery to return to his position; it is a safe bet that he would not be contesting for a second term.
ACTING PRESIDENCY: I f on the other hand Yar’adua remain indisposed up to election time in 2011,then it would be the first time that elections would be supervised by an acting president. Although we don’t know what Dr. Jonathan’s plans for 2011 are, for now we have to assume that he would toe the position of his party, the PDP, which declared that its zoning formula would be maintained, meaning that its 2011 flag bearer would come from the North. If this declaration holds, then the acting president is out of contention for the presidency in 2011. The special appeal of this likely scenario is that this could be the closest we would ever come to having an election supervised by a care-taker civilian regime, which though interested in an election, is not directly involved in the contest.
Alhaji Ahmadu Kurfi (Maradin Katsina and District Head of Kurfi), a former secretary of a federal election commission and member of the Uwais Committee, has always advocated that the only way we can have free and fair elections is to dissolve incumbent regimes three months in advance and appoint a care taker one to supervise the elections. Here is a golden opportunity for us to snap up.
THE POLITICAL PARTIES: This is our only source of concern, the weakest link in the chain that could pull us through a successful 2011 general elections. With less than a year before elections, and an opposition in disarray, it is delusional to expect any opposition springing up on time to present any convincing challenge. Warts and all, the behemoth that is the PDP looks set to retain power at the centre.
Our worry now is to worry about who emerges from the PDP as presidential candidate. So far the prognosis does not appear to be promising. Among the likely candidates are former military president (whatever that means) General Ibrahim Babangida, and former aspirant in 2007 and two-time National Security Adviser General Mohammed Aliyu Gusau. Neither of those two is a light weight; and should they decide to join forces, they could present quite a formidable team, especially given our weak electoral checks and balances situation. If we have any elder statesmen out there, I think they should appeal to those two to eschew their personal ambition in the wider interest of the nation.
They do have their good sides, and in the case of IBB he has a following across the country that is akin to a cult. If IBB should willingly remove himself from the contest and play kingmaker instead, what a powerful one he could be; ditto his longtime friend and associate General Gusau; between them they could help midwife a great transition that may be the beginning of the beginning.
Former minister of information Professor Jerry Gana is also being mentioned. Gana could make a good president, unfortunately he would be hard sale even in the North; Gana has no scruples exploiting religion whenever it suits him. As a candidate he would be more of a divisive figure than a unifying one. Of course outside the nest of the PDP there are many excellent candidates: Raji Fasola, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi easily come to mind.
THE DARK HORSE: But of recent there is a strong rumour going round that like they did in 2003 and 2007, the powerful Governors Forum has decided to settle for one of their own as a consensus candidate for 2011. This person, believe it or not, is said to be Admiral Murtala Nyako (Rtd) currently the PDP Governor of Adamawa State. If this rumour is true, this means that Nyako might tacitly enjoy the support of even none PDP members of the Forum.
As a cliché, horses don’t come darker than Nyako. He was a dark horse in 2007, when he was unexpectedly drafted by former President Obasanjo to neutralize the influence of his then estranged vice, Atiku Abubakar in Adamawa state. He fought a hard battle, won; had his election annulled; won a rerun and has now established himself as the most powerful politician in the state. Compared to others within the PDP that are being touted, Nyako carries the least electoral baggage that might weigh him down as a candidate; and the fact that he had not shown any naked greed for power should also count in his favour should he find himself in contention for the PDP ticket.
But all this is conjecture; there could be a dozen or more other dark horses and even darker plans being hatched, but whatever be the case the bottom-line is that we can’t afford to ignore what the PDP is doing—or not doing—as we approach 2011.
NUHU RIBADU AND NASIR EL-RUFAI: There is every possibility that Acting President Goodluck Jonathan might be planning to recall former EFCC boss Nuhu Ribadu and former FCT Minister Nasir el-Rufai from their self-exile in the United States. I admit that I had written scathing remarks about those two in the past, and I still stand by what I wrote; indeed I believe both Ribadu and el-Rufai would admit that given the chance, there were certain things they could have done differently, or even not do at all.
But the big plus in their favour is that in their absence the nation has had time to make a comparison; and the popular verdict is that warts and all, one Ribadu and one el-Rufai are by far better than a thousand Farida Waziri and Adamu Aliero respectively.
YAR’ADUA AND MUSLIMS: Why are Yar’adua’s people so prone to annoying blunders? So some Muslim clerics have been allowed to see Yar’adua. Fine. A group of Christian clerics (that should have been invited along with the Muslim group in the first place) should also be given the same privilege, if its a privilege to see your leader.