The strategy of the master strategist could backfire

The Hausa proverb “in dambu yayi yawa baya jin mai” can be a good analogy to this title. It roughly translates as “Too much dambu, a spiced couscous-like dish, cannot get enough oil.” As noticed a few days ago, the APC is going through difficult times and the leader of the ruling party—the President—must be […]

The Hausa proverb “in dambu yayi yawa baya jin mai” can be a good analogy to this title. It roughly translates as “Too much dambu, a spiced couscous-like dish, cannot get enough oil.”

As noticed a few days ago, the APC is going through difficult times and the leader of the ruling party—the President—must be feeling the heat. The last time they held a National Executive Council meeting was 18 months before the one they had last week. The Caucus meeting raised eyebrows for being held in the Presidential Villa. This signals that all is not well in the party because former APC governors were seen at coalition conferences and meetings since the beginning of the year.

Then there is the brouhaha in the Lagos State House of Assembly, which led to the impeachment of the Speaker, Obasa. Nigerians and Lagosians were engaged with his comical return. The state governor’s silence is creating a wider divide between the Lagos State government and those in Abuja. Above all, this play exposes the limits of the power that people believe the Master Strategist has.

Additionally, the South West is currently deadlocked on adopting or rejecting Shariah courts. This has created more divisions than unity within the six states of the zone, and the Master Strategist has not taken a side. Of course, it is a double-edged sword because candidates will campaign against Shariah or malign others who they think will endorse it in the next election.

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These are all cracks in the Master Strategist’s leadership; if he ignores them, they will persist into the election season. They will surely divide the electorate and weaken his second-most important voting bloc.

Shariah in the South is causing a problem because the Muslim-Muslim ticket indeed played a pivotal role in the emergence of this government. The pr⁰esident got 62.5 per cent of his total votes from the North, while 37.5 per cent came from the South.

In actual figures, it is 5,346,404 votes, of which 2,652,235 came from the North-West. That is almost half of the northern votes, 49.6 per cent to be precise and 31 per cent of the total votes. In the South, he got 3,206,969 votes from the South, of which the South West contributed 2,542,979, making it 79 per cent of the Southern votes and 29.7 per cent of the total votes.

Looking at the numbers, the Master Strategist can boast of getting 60 per cent of his votes from two voting blocs: the North West, influenced by the Muslim-Muslim ticket, and the South West, influenced by his pedigree.

The South West has received compensation through various statutory and political appointments. However, as previously mentioned, this has not prevented other issues from arising.

On the contrary, the North anticipated that this government would address the needs for security, education, agriculture, employment, and infrastructural development, providing a lasting solution to the dire poverty in the region. The North West, which gave him 31 per cent of the total votes, is left with statutory and peripheral positions that can hardly influence meaningful development in the region. As a bloc, the northern electorate is unhappy about the lukewarm response of the administrators of this administration, which is why appreciation of the ruling party in the North is decreasing.

As a master strategist, it is expected that he would adopt the marketing strategy principle that retaining a customer is cheaper than acquiring a new one. Satisfied customers bring in new ones through word-of-mouth. But attracting new customers requires advertising, promotions, and outreach, which are expensive. This is why businesses focus on customer service, loyalty programmes, and personalised experiences to maintain long-term relationships.

This strategy applies to politics as well. Retaining existing voters is more effective and less costly than winning over new ones. A strong base provides stability, consistent funding, and a reliable voting bloc. Converting opposition supporters requires significant resources, from media campaigns to policy shifts, which can alienate the core electorate. Loyal supporters also serve as grassroots organisers; they amplify their message through word-of-mouth and community engagement.

A successful political strategy of this nature is the Buhari followership since 2003. Similarly, the PDP traditional voting bloc across the country can be aligned to this principle. The party has built a committed following due to its long tenure in power and deep-rooted political structures. Voters kept their support regardless of national political trends. This voter retention strategy made re-engagements and expansion in competitive regions cheaper.

However, unlike previous administrations who won the elections and got re-elected, the master strategist is throwing caution to the wind by choosing the expensive route. He is paying less attention to the bloc that contributed 31 per cent to his success. I say so because the North—as a whole—feels the current presidency is marginalising it. I will reserve the issues APC is facing in the North.

It is not unusual for a regime to favour a particular region, as in the case of previous governments. Jonathan favoured his inner circle, who are mostly from the three southern geopolitical zones of multiple tribes. Buhari prioritised those he knew and candidates recommended by his confidants, who are mostly from all three northern geopolitical zones of multiple tribes. But unlike his predecessors, the Master Strategist does not have decent alliances across the geopolitical zones as he does in the South West. This is why he is surrounded by the Yoruba people.

The point to note here is that alienating a voting bloc can be a political disaster, especially if the voting numbers of the new coalitions and alliances are low. There is a new flirtation with the South East and South South voting bloc. This can be a good strategy, but the numbers must match what will be potentially lost in the North.

But before these new alliances, the Master Strategist must address the gaping hole in his South West stronghold. He must know that if the SouthWest rejects him, then all is lost for him.