The Strong and the Weak: Trump Corollary

“The strong will do what they want, the weak will endure what they must.” — Thucydides   The recent events in Venezuela illustrate a pivotal moment in global geopolitics: a clear demonstration of the shifting dynamics of U.S. power and the erosion of the post-World War II international order. From Israeli genocide in Gaza, which exposed […]

“The strong will do what they want, the weak will endure what they must.” — Thucydides

 

The recent events in Venezuela illustrate a pivotal moment in global geopolitics: a clear demonstration of the shifting dynamics of U.S. power and the erosion of the post-World War II international order. From Israeli genocide in Gaza, which exposed the limitations of the United Nations, to the Trump administration’s unilateral tariffs undermining the World Trade Organisation, to the seizing of merchant ships in international waters,  the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signals a continuation of America’s transactional approach to global influence.

This operation underscores a sobering truth: international law has long existed more as a symbolic framework than a binding system. Historically, its enforcement has been determined less by principles and more by the combination of U.S. hard and soft power. As the United States confronts the limits of its dominance, the world faces a more aggressive, pragmatic, and self-interested American foreign policy.

Historical Context: Venezuela and U.S. Intervention

The United States’ efforts to destabilize Venezuela span over two decades. From multiple failed coup attempts to assassination plots against Hugo Chávez, the revolutionary leader who nationalized Venezuela’s oil, the focus has consistently been on controlling the nation’s vast energy resources. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, surpassing those of Saudi Arabia, making it a strategic prize in global energy geopolitics.

Whether the Trump administration’s recent actions will secure Venezuelan oil remains uncertain. However, the manner in which Maduro’s capture unfolded suggests a highly orchestrated operation. Within three hours, using just a dozen helicopters, U.S.-linked forces allegedly entered Caracas’ Miraflores Palace without resistance from the Venezuelan military or air defences, a level of ease not even seen in the arrest of high-profile drug kingpins like El Chapo Guzmán. This raises the likelihood that the operation was negotiated in advance with elements of Venezuela’s military and security hierarchy, staged as a public display of U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere.

Oil, AI, and Strategic Calculations

The capture of Maduro is not merely a symbolic act of military dominance; it is fundamentally about energy security. President Trump publicly stated that the United States would oversee Venezuela’s oil sector temporarily, ostensibly to ensure a “safe, proper, and judicious transition.” Beneath this, however, lies a clear objective: securing energy resources vital for the U.S. economy at a time when domestic shale production is declining.

The rise of artificial intelligence compounds the urgency. In September 2025, JPMorgan analysts estimate that the top AI-linked firms account for nearly 44% of the S&P 500 by market value. What looks like explosive innovation on the surface is, underneath, a closed financial circuit where capital rotates among a small set of firms, reinforcing valuations without proportionate diffusion into the real economy. This complex form of “round tripping” has sparked discussion of an “AI bubble” in the United States, a topic now serious among economists, investors, and policymakers. Controlling Venezuelan oil meets AI’s energy needs, provides leverage over global energy markets, and serves as collateral to manage U.S. debt, reinforcing the interconnection of geopolitics, technology, and economics.

Multidimensional Competition and the Trump Corollary

The Venezuelan operation also reflects the Trump administration’s strategic approach toward global competitors. With the United States acknowledging its reduced capacity to confront China and Russia directly, Washington is increasingly targeting weaker partners of these powers to assert influence indirectly. Venezuela, a key trading partner for China in Latin America, is a strategic chokepoint in this broader game of “multidimensional competition.”

This approach, which analysts have dubbed the Trump Corollary, emphasizes absolute control over America’s “backyard.” Regional powers such as Brazil may find themselves particularly vulnerable as the United States exploits governance gaps and geopolitical assertiveness to assert dominance.

Europe and the Decline of Vassal Influence

Europe’s silence during the Venezuelan crisis underscores its declining geopolitical significance. While European elites were vocal during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they remain conspicuously absent when U.S. interests are directly involved in Latin America, Africa, or Asia. The pattern is clear: Europe remains a vassal, dependent on the United States’ strategic priorities.

Looking ahead, Washington may assert territorial expansion in other regions, regardless of domestic political changes, reinforcing the continuity of the Trump Corollary across administrations. Denmark’s Greenland could be next.

Implications for Nigeria

Nigeria has already demonstrated a striking lack of sovereignty in its attempt to appease the Trump administration by permitting a U.S. military operation in Sokoto State on Christmas Day, purportedly to protect Nigerian Christians. This operation reflects the hallmarks of Trump’s showbiz-style approach to foreign policy, blending theatrics with political signalling. Few gestures could resonate more strongly with Trump’s evangelical MAGA base than the highly symbolic protection of Christians on Christmas Day in Nigeria, our dear country that everyone loves to blame. Moreover, Nigeria’s apparent acquiescence sends a broader message. Trump is likely to interpret such displays of weakness as an opportunity to exert influence, with implications that may become clearer as the 2027 elections approach. The capture of Nicolás Maduro under the pretext of drug trafficking serves as a warning to African leaders with a history in illicit drug networks. In a world where power dictates outcomes, no leader is immune to external intervention. In practical terms, the 2027 elections may turn out to be Trump’s decision.

Ultimately, nations on the brink, weakened by unsustainable exploitation and internal mismanagement, face the inescapable reality that what is unsustainable cannot be sustained.