Thinking aloud about 2023

On Saturday, the manager of Aldershot Town F.C., a football club from southeast England that competes in the fifth tier of the English Football league system, became a viral sensation. Asked about his thoughts ahead of his club’s FA cup match against Bromley F.C, Mark Molesley responded with a bizarre stream of consciousness, “If a […]

On Saturday, the manager of Aldershot Town F.C., a football club from southeast England that competes in the fifth tier of the English Football league system, became a viral sensation. Asked about his thoughts ahead of his club’s FA cup match against Bromley F.C, Mark Molesley responded with a bizarre stream of consciousness, “If a tree falls and no one is there to hear it, does it make a noise? Does a penguin get cold? What way does your bath water go – clockwise or anti-clockwise when you take the plug out? You know, these are questions that are going to be asked of us and the questions we need the answers to…”

Mark’s philosophical musings sum up my state of mind on Nigerian politics. Extremely complex questions are staring us in the face; they must be dealt with in short order. They were reignited by Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s announcement on January 10 that he would contest for the flag of the APC in the 2023 presidential race, saying he is going to pursue his “lifelong ambition”. Just 24 hours later, the Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi – who defected to the APC in November 2020 – declared his interest, claiming “God spoke” to him to do so. Before the dust has settled, Orji Uzor Kalu, former Governor of Abia State, threw his hat to the ring, stating that he would contest if the ticket were zoned to the South.

There is also Vice President Yemi Osinbajo whose plans are getting clearer by the day. He has not said he would stand but it seems a question of when not if. Osinbajo’s posters and billboards are now a familiar sight and organisations supporting him have been holding gatherings and going on mobilisation tours – including to former presidents. We all know what is going on here. It is part of politicians’ playbook to sponsor people and organisations to lobby, cajole and even force them to contest. It is likely that Osinbajo is hesitating because (a) he is in government and (b) he does not want to be seen to be confronting his political godfather, Tinubu, to whom Osinbajo owes his political career almost exclusively. But as Nigeria’s political system already ranged biological fathers against their own children, as we saw in Kwara State years ago, there is no reason that a political godson should not challenge his godfather in a dramatic fashion.

All these announcements are premised on the assumption that the 2023 presidential ticket will be zoned to the South, but this is not a foregone conclusion. Many northern politicians feel the spirit of fairness and good sportsmanship requires that, having been in the North for eight years, the presidency should now go to the South. But others argue that “rotation” is alien to the constitution of the country and is unknown to the constitutions of all the parties. Those opposed to zoning argue that it represents an agreement made by an unrepresentative group without authority. Consequently, northerners like Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State are adamant that they must be allowed to contest. Northerners and southerners are eyeing PDP’s ticket too.

Should the presidency be zoned to the South, or should it be thrown open? If it were given to the South, should Yorubas be allowed to try their luck or should it be restricted to the Igbos? If Bola Tinubu – the most eager of the aspirants and perhaps the most confident– gets the ticket, who should be his running mate? Being a Muslim from the South, must Tinubu pick a Northern Christian as his vice-presidential candidate? If he did that, would northern Muslims support the APC? If Tinubu picks a northern Muslim, does a Muslim-Muslim ticket meet the spirit of regional zoning? And what if the PDP fields a Northern Muslim as its vice-presidential or even presidential candidate, would APC lose to PDP in the North and potentially lose the election?

These are the questions that are going to be asked of us for the coming months and they are the questions we need the answers to. These questions are not just about the next election; they are about what kind of Nigeria we want to build. We must find solutions to them in the process of which we would need to solve impossible equations. I detest to talk of region, religion or ethnicity in these matters, but that sadly is our reality and it is not going to go away. We will never stop being Muslims and Christians, and Southerners and Northerners until the end of time and these affiliations – accidental as they may be – will continue to shape our country and politics in fundamental ways.

So it is better to face these questions with sincerity and seek answers in the collective interests of Nigeria’s future as a united, peaceful and prosperous country. In answering them, we shouldn’t be selfish, but altruistic; pragmatic, not idealistic. Unfortunately, we cannot trust our politicians with this. We must all, therefore, get involved in this debate in an open, constructive way.

Here is my contribution to one of them. Rotating the ticket of the president is to my mind the most ingenious invention of Nigerian politicians since independence. We are such a complex country with extremely diverse peoples and competing interests that there has to be a way of moderating such interests to make the competition less toxic. Because some areas are more populous and some groups more organised than others, it is only fair that each section is given a bite at the cherry. Rotation can achieve this by giving each part a chance and fostering a sense of inclusion and ownership.

But rotation needs to be broken further down to geopolitical zones. Both the two northern presidents since 1999 came not just from one geopolitical zone, but from the same state: Katsina. If Tinubu or Osinbajo realised his ambition in 2023, then only South West and South South would have produced southern presidents since 1999. Meanwhile, the South East, North Central and North East have never produced an elected president since the birth of Nigeria. Therefore, the presidency should go to the South in 2023. The South East is especially more entitled and, as for the vice president, I reckon that the North Central – which has never produced any – is more entitled in the North.

But there are ways we can make rotation work for Nigeria. Firstly, there are fantastic leaders in both the South and the North and in all geopolitical zones, so wherever the flag goes, we must ensure that it is the best of us, not the worst of us, that gets selected. Secondly, it must be clear to the understanding of both regions that a president from either region is not a president for that region; a president from the South shouldn’t be a president just for the South as a president from the North shouldn’t be a president for the North; he/she must see themselves and work as the president for the whole country – all parts of the country must be carried along not just in government appointments and consultation, but also in development.  

In closing, as the title suggests, my thoughts on this and other related issues are not fixed. I will continue to think, learn and engage on all these questions and I know my opinion would shift in the process.