This time next year

I was looking at an old copy of Ngugi wa Thiong’o’s 1970 novel This Time Tomorrow. In it a woman asked the question, “Where will I be, this time tomorrow?” That is a good question. Right now I am not sure where I will be in the next one hour but I am asking the […]

I was looking at an old copy of Ngugi wa Thiong’o’s 1970 novel This Time Tomorrow. In it a woman asked the question, “Where will I be, this time tomorrow?” That is a good question. Right now I am not sure where I will be in the next one hour but I am asking the question, “Where will we [Nigerians] be, this time next year?”
Will there be any oil and gas pipelines left for the Niger Delta Avengers to blow up? Government seems to believe that Tompolo is the brain behind the Avengers but the ex-militant chief/top NIMASA contractor condemns the group almost on a daily basis. Yet, the Avengers have listed the unblocking of Tompolo’s bank accounts as one of the conditions for laying down their arms, so the calculations do not add up. At first the government went for a military solution based on assurances from the service chiefs that they can solve the problem, but it has now backtracked from that course. I think that is wise; Boko Haram war is still smouldering and even Adolf Hitler did not win a two front war.
Will President Buhari borrow from his younger brother the late President Umaru Yar’adua and buy time with another amnesty program? If so, how high a price is he willing to pay for peace in the Niger Delta? Will he agree, as allegedly demanded by Niger Delta governors sans Oshiomhole, to stop the anti-corruption war in the region? Since Nigerian corruption cannot be geographically compartmentalised, can he then continue with his cornerstone program in any other parts of the country and if not, what is he doing in the State House?
Will the estimated two million IDPs in the North East be back in their homes by next year? Anyone can see that the military has recorded smashing successes in the North East and Boko Haram is degraded by perhaps 90%. Trouble is, refugees will not return home until Boko Haram is defeated 100%.  Even then their towns and villages must be demined, their water supplies cleaned, their houses, schools and clinics rebuilt and their means of livelihood somehow rehabilitated. I do not want to call it a Herculean task because even Hercules will be daunted by this task. Then also, many of the refugees in Maiduguri and beyond will not go back home. Some years ago when I was in Freetown, I was shocked to see so many young men and women in the streets and I was told that they were refugees from the rural areas who fled to the capital during the country’s civil war and never went back after peace returned.
Will our state governments be paying salaries this time next year? Already two state governors have publicly declared that they cannot pay salaries anymore. Unless the Federal Government pulls another financial rabbit out of the hat, we would be sailing in uncharted waters by this time next year. During a trip in 1996 I met an official of the Eritrean government who told me government posts were distributed to former guerrillas but no salaries were being paid. Sounds like a model we could borrow.
What will be the price of oil in the international market this time next year? Will it be hovering around 40, nosedived to 25, picked up to 60, or perhaps magically risen to 80 dollars a barrel? You can’t rule out any of the scenarios. One new war in the Middle East could save the beleaguered Nigerian treasury. On the other hand, another major technological breakthrough on the scale of fracking could propel us post-haste into the post oil era, all within a year.
What will be the national minimum wage this time next year? Will it still be 18,000, risen to 30,000 or dropped to 0,000? NLC began agitating for a new national minimum wage early this year. Its agitation gained impetus with the hike in petrol prices. However, cold water was poured on NLC’s agitation when Governor Abubakar Sani Bello said he can no longer pay salaries and Governor Ayo Fayose said he cannot sell himself to pay salaries. How can you talk about an increase when governors are saying they cannot pay the present, paltry minimum wage?
Who will be ruling in Edo, Ondo and Kogi states this time next year? It is not at all clear that APC can retain Edo State after Oshiomhole, nor is it likely that PDP can retain Ondo State after Mimiko. On his part, Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello did a state-wide radio and TV broadcast to celebrate his victory at the election tribunal. I thought that was premature, since there is a two-tier appeal process still ahead.
Will Nigeria have any political parties worthy of the name by this time next year? This is the first time in our history that both the ruling party and the main opposition party are in political recession. While PDP is falling apart publicly, APC is rotting from within like a log eaten by termites, with an increasing disconnect between it and the government it “controls.”
Will the Middle East witness more or fewer conflicts by next year? It was no small wonder that the Arabs, heirs to one of the world’s oldest civilisations, allowed Westerners to deceive and goad them to do an “Arab Spring.” It turned out to be a very hot Arab Summer. Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Palestine and nearby Afghanistan are still in flames; will the Arabs retrace their steps or will they set more countries on fire in the name of democratic reforms?  We Africans should not gloat about the Arabs’ misery. Africa was once the Ground Zero of internecine conflict and we still have South Sudan, Boko Haram, Lord’s Resistance Army and remnants of the Malian rebels to contend with. Should we listen if the Whites come up with the idea of an African Autumn?
Who will be sitting in the White House this time next year? If it is Hillary Clinton, as most of the world hopes for, then things will be pretty much the same. Maybe ISIS will like to test the nerves of a woman president. Otherwise, we expect a woman president to be less inclined to war and violence, unless she is Margaret Thatcher. Or maybe Donald Trump will be in the White House. In which case a wall will be up on the Mexican border, ten million undocumented migrants will be on their way home, Guantanamo prison would have expanded to incorporate Havana, thousands of Muslims will be stranded on the US-Canadian border and the US Air Force Strategic Bomber Command will be doing practice runs over Tehran, Beijing and Moscow.
Will you be reading newspaper columns this time next year? Maybe, if the newspapers are still there. If there are no newspapers, columnists can migrate to the social media but who will pay them? Anyone is free to wonder why newspapers stab themselves in the stomach by unloading all their contents free on websites. Only yesterday I read on Facebook a posting by a young man who said that these days he passes by the vendor without stopping because he had read everything free online. Will things still be that way by this time next year? People are free to switch from hard newspaper copy to a computer screen but ultimately, they must pay for it. Nobody will sit down and regularly write a column if he is not paid for it. So, Free Readers’ Association, please add this to your worries for this time next year.