Tinubu should be worried about Trump influencing 2027 Polls, say Experts on Inside Sources
Political analysts and academics have warned that President Bola Tinubu may need to be concerned about possible external influence, particularly from the United States under President Donald Trump, as Nigeria looks ahead to the 2027 general elections. The experts made their views known on Inside Sources with Laolu Akande, aired on Channels Television on Sunday, […]
Political analysts and academics have warned that President Bola Tinubu may need to be concerned about possible external influence, particularly from the United States under President Donald Trump, as Nigeria looks ahead to the 2027 general elections.
The experts made their views known on Inside Sources with Laolu Akande, aired on Channels Television on Sunday, while reflecting on historical precedents of foreign involvement in elections in the Global South and drawing parallels with Nigeria’s 2015 polls.
Mujubaolu Okome, Professor of Political Science and Women Studies at the City University of New York, said foreign intervention in the politics of developing countries is neither new nor unusual.
“US interventions in the politics of global south countries is not a new factor. So, if you look at the relationship between the US and its neighbours in the western hemisphere – Latin American countries – you will see significant instances historically of interventions. As a matter of fact, I think this is what super powers do,” Okome said.
She referenced the controversy surrounding the 2015 Nigerian elections, noting the reported involvement of data analytics firm Cambridge Analytica.
“It was very clear from news reports that Cambridge Analytica was hired as a consultant by actors within that electoral landscape and, Cambridge Analytica has been shown to be a bad faith actor,” she stated.
However, Prof. Okome cautioned against attributing electoral outcomes solely to foreign interference, stressing that domestic factors also played a critical role.
“The reason President Jonathan lost that election cannot just only exclusively be attributed to whatever other actors did,” she added.
Supporting this view, Ismail Omipidan, Deputy Politics Editor at The Sun, argued that former President Goodluck Jonathan’s loss in 2015 was largely self-inflicted, regardless of any alleged external influence.
“I am one of those who believe very strongly that even if there was any influence from the outside, former president Jonathan made himself vulnerable. And, that was why he lost that election,” Omipidan said.
He cited internal crises within the then-ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as a decisive factor.
“There was serious crisis within his party, PDP and he didn’t manage that crisis well. He mismanaged those governors who eventually left the party. If those governors have not defected from the PDP, it probably would have been difficult for the opposition to win that election,” he argued.
Omipidan also pointed to security failures as another weakness.
“Two, he didn’t show any sign of seriousness to fight Boko Haram until when we were close to the election,” he said.
On the implications for 2027, Dr. Abimbola Oyarinu of the University of Lagos warned that the current global political climate makes foreign influence a real concern for the Tinubu administration.
“If I was President Tinubu, definitely, I will be worried. Because, when you look at posture and position of US President Donald Trump in the international space, you can assume that the influence of US in our elections will not be far-fetched,” Oyarinu said.
The discussion underscored a broader consensus among the panelists: while foreign powers may seek to influence elections in strategic countries like Nigeria, internal governance, party cohesion, security, and leadership decisions remain decisive factors in determining electoral outcomes.