Tinubu, the North and 2027

For over a quarter of a century, Nigeria had not seen a master political strategist like Tinubu. He is a damn cool political customer that perfected the art of manipulating political friends and foes alike, using machinations that border on capitalising on political greed, corrupt stance and selfish inclinations of our political elite. Forget the […]

For over a quarter of a century, Nigeria had not seen a master political strategist like Tinubu. He is a damn cool political customer that perfected the art of manipulating political friends and foes alike, using machinations that border on capitalising on political greed, corrupt stance and selfish inclinations of our political elite.

Forget the NADECO days and self-imposed exile, or even the brief stint at the National Assembly as distinguished senator, he launched the first step of realising his ambition to rule the country by contesting and winning the Lagos State governorship in 1999.

You must give Tinubu credit for transforming Lagos in his two terms through pragmatic strategy to surrounding himself with some of the best minds and technocrats Lagos can offer at the time. He also withstand the high-handedness of Obasanjo as he choked Lagos revenues by freezing its local government councils’ funds for two years. Tinubu, not only launched himself but his human machinery, hoping to cash-in in the near future.

Being in opposition, he realised that the only way to defeat PDP, which publicly claimed it would dominate the Nigerian political space for the next 60 years, is to rally the opposition under another umbrella, to challenge the green-white-red umbrella of the PDP. The PDP would have continued to dominate the next several decades, if it wasn’t for Obasanjo’s short-sightedness stemming from his anger against the political elite for blocking his third term bid; thus he foisted the duo of sick Yar Adua and weak Jonathan. A decision that clearly began to weaken PDP internally.

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Jonathan’s ethno-religious politics divided the nation sharply and Tinubu quickly saw the opportunity and decided it is time he blesses the anointment of Muhammadu Buhari, the most popular politician ever produced north of the Niger River. Rallying the opposition under Buhari and unleashing the Southwest media, Buhari, under the tutelage of the schemer of Bourdoullion, was enthroned in 2015.

He calmly and patiently waited, bidding his time. With the catastrophe of Buhari’s eight wasteful years, the APC shouldn’t have had a second chance to rule again, but thanks to the greediness of Atiku and Obi. The duo that barely lost to Buhari in 2019 entered the 2023 race no longer as one united force, but on different platforms. Thus the opposition made history, losing to the ruling party despite having the superiority of over four million votes in the polls. It never happened anywhere in history.

From the catastrophic inaugural declaration “subsidy is gone” to ensuring Akpabio leads the Senate while Ganduje leads the party and Wike handed over Abuja as well as the grand betrayal of El-Rufai, the champion of Muslim-Muslim ticket that tested the waters by experimenting in Kaduna, the writing on the wall is clear not to expect very much from the Tinubu first term.

Any right thinking person should understand that APC didn’t actually win in the right sense, but it is the opposition that lost for dividing their votes. And Tinubu noted the flaw and understood the danger it poses should the opposition realise their mistake and rectify it in 2027. That is why you see, even before the second anniversary of the administration, campaign had subtly and stealthily began as Tinubu’s APC is doing all it can to see the opposition remains divided and scattered up to the 2027 polls.

The 2027 campaign in the North was unofficially launched in Katsina under the extravagant wedding of the governor’s daughter. Northern elites converged on the ancient city to pay homage and restate allegiance to the emperor. Ganduje was right as he was rumoured to have alleged that Tinubu should forget the youth and concentrate on the political elite. The Katsina fanfare strengthened that school of thought as neither the elite nor the masses took the president to task over the insecurity situation in the state. In fact a large billboard welcoming Tinubu says all is well in Katsina, there is no problem.

As we all know, any election is like a pregnant woman, you cannot predict accurately what would happen, but two things appear clearly as far as the 2027 election is concerned. Tinubu stands a chance to be re-elected and there is also a big possibility he can lose, a 50-50 betting chances. Under the first scenario, if he succeeds in scattering the opposition by stopping them from uniting, he would surely win. The main opposition is now coming from disgruntled and sidelined northern politicians and with their antecedents and selfish consideration, they might not properly unite. As disgruntled elements like El-Rufai are joining SDP, rumours are that Atiku is joining another party and no one knows actually what Obi plans to do. Kwankwaso is rumoured to be somewhere down the line, jump into the APC bandwagon.

The 2023 election clearly showed Kwankwaso is overrated in national politics, because the one million votes he garnered, wouldn’t tip the election on either side. The PDP governors are not united and some are even defecting to APC. As it stands now, Tinubu’s strategy of crippling the opposition is working. Can the opposition realise their mistake in 2023 and rectify it in 2027? Only time will tell as we have over a year and a half ahead for strategies and restrategising.

On the other hand, Tinubu’s last two years have been nothing but a huge disappointment, both on his democratic ideals and capacity as a leader. His economic policies are a fiasco, sending the naira into a free fall, while energy prices skyrocketted crippling small-scale industries and businesses.  The insecurity issue is escalating and would continue to do so as we approach elections. The poverty level continues to rise, the educational sector is in shambles; impunity is rising by the day as freedom of speech is being stifled here and there. The myriad of problems Nigerians face today, could rally the voters into one united opposition that transcends party politics making people to vote APC out.

I think one of the two scenarios would surely come to pass in 2027 and the judgment is left to Nigerians, to either unshackle themselves from the yoke of self-imposed slavery by their own votes and try another set, or allow APC to extend their 12 year misrule and mismanagement of our commonwealth to our collective detriment.

Whichever way the pendulum swings, I am one Nigerian that already has made peace with myself. All I know is everyone of us, from the high and mighty down to the low and the downtrodden, are just different ingredients of the same giant soup. Naturally when the pot boils, the diffusion of the hotter ingredients at the bottom will rise to the top, as the cooler ones at the top are pushed downwards, when the pot temperature reaches critical level, it will spill out and possibly tumble down, laying to waste ingredients, regardless of their nature, as we become one in a united destiny of collective failure which we bought and paid for ourselves.

I am sure interesting times lay ahead. Those who live long enough, will surely see it come to pass…whether we will make or mar our own future.

 

Sadiq wrote from Abuja