Twenty prospects for Nigeria in 2017
1] Muhammadu Buhari The President of the Federal Republic had a sour-sweet year in 2016 and he could be in for more of the same in 2017. The military’s smashing success in the Sambisa Forest lifted the national mood as 2016 ended and gave President Buhari a big fillip. He however enters the New Year […]
1] Muhammadu Buhari
The President of the Federal Republic had a sour-sweet year in 2016 and he could be in for more of the same in 2017. The military’s smashing success in the Sambisa Forest lifted the national mood as 2016 ended and gave President Buhari a big fillip. He however enters the New Year with biting economic recession, pervasive insecurity, restiveness among the political class, an increasingly combative Senate, his own slow style and his close aides’ scandalous conduct all dodging his steps.
2] Boko Haram
Boko Haram enters the New Year with its fortunes at its lowest ebb in six years. At the height of its power, it snubbed all efforts to reach a deal with the government. Now, with its Sambisa Forest redoubt lost, with its leadership in disarray, with its factional leader Abu Musab al-Barnawi in DSS hands and with most of its cadres and amirs killed or captured, Boko Haram enters 2017 with only one way to go: further down.
3] Niger Delta Avengers
In 2015-16 the Niger Delta Avengers contributed enormously to Nigeria’s economic woes by sabotaging oil facilities and disrupting oil exports and power generation. A combination of tough military action and on-and-off talks has reduced it’s as 2016 ended. The Avengers have two options in 2017; to accept a truce brokered by Niger Delta elders or to return to war and risk going the way of Boko Haram.
4] Economic recession
In 2016, economic recession overtook terrorism as Nigeria’s number one challenge. It is biting hard as we enter the New Year. Government hopes to find more money in 2017 from improved oil exports, higher oil prices and higher borrowing to spend its way out of the recession. If last year’s budget performance is anything to go by, the light we are seeing at the end of the tunnel could be an oncoming train.
5] The Naira
At 490 to the US dollar on the black market as 2016 ended, the naira is at its nadir since it became Nigeria’s national currency in January 1973. If the country earns more dollars in 2017, naira’s exchange rate could stabilise. On the other hand it might not. A renewed rush for dollars by manufacturers, goods importers, students in foreign schools, Dubai shopping addicts, foreign airlines, health tourists and plain currency hoarders could yet drive it further down.
6] The Federal Cabinet
Newspapers have begun a campaign to force President Buhari to make changes to the Federal Cabinet. It was not credited with stellar performance in 2016. Its response to economic crises was weak. Promises to improve power supply and key infrastructure were not delivered. The much touted Social Investment Programs failed to take off. One minister caused a national scandal with his utterances. There are two vacancies waiting to be filled. Cabinet reshuffle always buys time for a Nigerian ruler, but Buhari is an unusual Nigerian ruler.
7] Babachir David Lawal
Secretary to the Government of the Federation [SGF] Babachir David Lawal enters 2017 on the hottest plate of all Buhari’s top aides. Attorney General Abubakar Malami is expected to submit his report to the President soon on his probe of the SGF’s alleged misappropriation of funds meant for Internally Displaced Persons’ [IDP] relief, made by a Senate ad hoc committee. The president is clearly reluctant to do away with a long-time loyalist. Lawal’s fate promises to be the biggest test yet for Buhari’s anti-corruption war.
8] Ibrahim Magu
Acting Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission [EFCC] also enters 2017 with uncertainty clouding his fate. The Attorney General is probing allegations of impropriety made against Magu by the Department of State Services [DSS]. The Presidency is unsure whether to retain him as Acting EFCC Chairman, represent his name to Senate for confirmation or simply find a replacement. Buhari must make up his mind soon before matters get out of hand.
9] Oil prices
International prices of crude oil hit $55 a barrel as 2016 ended and look to go even higher due a production cut deal made by both OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers. Nigeria was also exempted from the cuts due to its failure to meet earlier production targets. If oil prices rise steeply, American shale oil producers could jump into the fray once more. For Nigerians however, no music is sweeter than rising oil prices.
10] Southern Kaduna
Three Local Government Areas in southern Kaduna State had their bleakest Christmas in 2016 with a 12 hour curfew in place, and that due to tit-for-tit inter-communal killings. Suspected herdsmen carried out horrific attacks on villages and towns, apparently as reprisal attacks for losses of cattle and family members. Governor Nasir el-Rufa’i ran into political trouble with some remarks he made about the crises. As we enter 2017, the Wisdom of Solomon is needed to restore peace to the region.
11] Banditry in Zamfara
The surrender of Zamfara State’s most notorious rural bandit and cattle rustler, a man who calls himself Buharin Daji [i.e. Buhari of the Forest] signalled a possible end to chronic insecurity in the state as 2016 ended. In six months the military’s Operation Harbin Kunama failed to end banditry but going into 2017, peaceful engagement with the bandits could yet succeed where vigilante and military operations failed.
12] Internally Displaced Persons
Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima has been feeding a million Internally Displaced Persons [IDPs] in more than two dozen camps for five years now. In November he announced that all the camps will close by May 2017. Adamawa State Government said it will close its IDP camps this month. For millions of IDPs in the North East this year, there is only one place to go: back home, following the return of peace in most areas.
13] PDP
Some Nigerians say it tastes its own bitter medicine. Senator Ahmed Makarfi’s majority PDP faction has been wrestled to a draw by Senator Ali Modu Sheriff’s tiny but very determined party faction. It is unlikely that a truce will be reached in 2017 so Makarfi and the PDP governors must decide on their next line of action, including abandoning the PDP name.
14] APC
APC has been the least cohesive ruling party ever in Nigeria’s history. President Buhari distrusts it and its national and most state leaderships are ineffectual. It hardly holds any meetings. Since 2017 is the last year of tranquillity before 2019 politics takes over, APC must pull itself together or split back into its four component groups.
15] Bukola Saraki
For most of 2016 President Buhari shunned him; the Presidency plotted his downfall and he had the indignity of standing in the docks of two different courts while his Senate colleagues milled around in the courtyard. 2017 promises to be a rebound year for Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki. With President Buhari’s nominees, loan requests, Medium Term Economic Framework and federal budget stuck in an increasingly assertive Senate, he now meets frequently with Saraki and even hailed him on his birthday.
16] Bola Tinubu
APC’s National Leader Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu went on an extended world tour late last year in order to distance himself from President Buhari and the party leadership. He openly attacked Party Chairman Chief John Oyegun in 2016 but stopped just short of attacking Buhari too. Unless the presidency courts Tinubu this year, this restive warhorse could open the 2019 campaign with an open rupture with Buhari.
17] Atiku Abubakar
Unlike Tinubu, who is still hoping to make up with Buhari, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has already launched his campaign for the presidency in 2019. He intends to line up the South behind him by becoming the latter-day champion of restructuring and fiscal federalism. In 2017, expect Atiku to open more battle fronts with efforts to snatch the South West, North East or Middle Belt from Buhari’s calculus.
18] Nigeria Labour Congress
Nigeria’s central labour union, Nigeria Labour Congress [NLC] enters 2017 still smarting from its failed national strike against fuel price increase and also with a divided front. Twenty five labour unions including the powerful NUPENG and NUBIFIE announced the formation of a new central labour union, United Labour Congress, ULC. Unless NLC finds a way to stitch the rift, labour’s fortunes could dip even further this year.
19] Dasuki, Kanu and El-Zakzaky
The Federal Government’s three highest profile detainees enter 2017 with uncertainty hanging over the heads. Former National Security Adviser Colonel Sambo Dasuki, Indigenous Peoples of Biafra [IPOB] leader Nnamdi Kanu and Islamic Movement of Nigeria [IMN] leader Ibrahim el-Zakzaky all obtained court orders to be released on bail but DSS held on firmly to them. While Dasuki and Kanu have been charged to court, El-Zakzaky has not yet been charged. It is a tossup which, if any, one of them will taste freedom in 2017.
20] The next disaster
After a disastrous church building collapse, flooding in some states, severe gully erosion in others, train crushing a truck, many car accidents and a year’s end fire that consumed parts of a brewery, National Emergency Management Agency [NEMA] and all Nigerians are looking over their shoulders at the next disaster in 2017. We pray that it does not come.