Two rival victory maps

This week, each of the two major parties PDP and APC will hang up on the wall a large map of Nigeria. Colour pencils will be lying nearby.  Each party’s presidential candidate and his running mate must sit together with top party chieftains and campaign strategists, analyse each region and each state one by one […]

This week, each of the two major parties PDP and APC will hang up on the wall a large map of Nigeria. Colour pencils will be lying nearby.  Each party’s presidential candidate and his running mate must sit together with top party chieftains and campaign strategists, analyse each region and each state one by one and then paint each one in a certain colour. There are three colours: whether our party will win this state, or our opponents will win it, or whether we should mark it as a tossup state.
For no particular reason let us start with the APC map plotting exercise. Without thinking twice the APC map painter will paint in APC colours the 12 states in which General Buhari recorded an outright win in 2011. These are Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Bauchi and Niger. APC will calculate, self servingly, that nothing has changed since 2011 to loosen Buhari’s grip on those states. Right now, seven of those 12 states have PDP governors but then, all of them had PDP and ANPP governors in 2011 when CPC’s Buhari won them. In fact, two of them namely Sokoto and Zamfara that had PDP governors in 2011 now have APC governors. Similarly, three of them namely Borno, Yobe and Kano that had ANPP governors in 2011 now have APC governors so APC leaders will see no need to repaint anyone of them.
Of the seven Northern states in which President Goodluck Jonathan won a plurality of votes in 2011 APC map plotters will repaint two, namely Kwara and Nasarawa in their own colours. This is partly because both states now have APC instead of PDP governors. From the look of things, Senator Bukola Saraki and Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed have turned Kwara around politically and the state PDP’s bevy of millionaire businessmen looks unable to stop them. As for Nasarawa State, though Buhari lost the state 2011 it now has an APC governor. Besides, PDP has suffered a deep split in the state with the defection of former Information Minister Labaran Maku to APGA. In addition to Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP chapters in Plateau, Adamawa and Taraba states are riddled with internal conflict and APC strategists will hope to capture at least one of those.
From the North APC’s map plotters will move to the South West. With Asiwaju Bola Tinubu watching the mapping exercise through thick-rimmed Awo-style round eyeglasses the map plotter will nervously paint Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti and Edo in solid APC colours. That may not be very realistic. Some strategists may say that Ondo and Ekiti should at least be consigned to toss up status since they have PDP governors. Tinubu and the old ACN strenuously tried but failed to defeat Governor Olusegun Mimiko in 2013. In fact ACN finished third in that election after Labour Party and PDP. Those top two finishers have now merged. As for Ekiti, APC’s shock defeat in last year’s governorship election at least earns the state toss up status in APC map plotting. Edo State is another tough nut to crack. Its rambunctious APC governor Adams Oshiomhole is likely to snatch the colour pencil and paint Edo in APC colours but any careful strategist would at least consign Edo State to toss up status.
The map painting exercise now moves to the South East and South-South, which even the most ardent APC fan must concede, is President Jonathan and PDP’s home territory, though with very important qualifiers. With director general of the presidential campaign organisation Rotimi Amaechi looking on, the map plotter will quickly paint Rivers State in solid APC colours. Certainly Rotimi Amaechi’s defection has had an enormous impact on Rivers State politics. Looking from afar at its violence-wracked campaign season, it does look like APC is much stronger than PDP in Rivers State. Yet a careful strategist must still put it in the toss up category because it is entirely possible for Niger Delta regional sentiment to win out in the presidential election even if Amaechi’s candidate wins the governorship.
Other Niger Delta states namely Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa should be painted in PDP colours but an optimistic APC map maker will paint Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa in toss up status, given recent events there. Governor Seriake Dickson might work underground to undermine Jonathan lest he suffers the Sylva treatment when he is up for re-election later this year.
The map plotting exercise then moves to the South East. Some realists would argue that all five Igbo states be painted in PDP colours at least for the presidential election but Owelle  Rochas Okorocha will insist that Imo must be painted in APC colours. Therefore, everything considered, the most optimistic APC map will project the party as winning a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 26 states this weekend.  
Let us now shift to become the fly on the wall during the PDP map making exercise. The PDP exercise will begin by projecting on the screen the 2011 electoral map in which Jonathan won 24 states and FCT to Buhari’s 12. The man called the “game changer” is likely to argue that all those 24 states and a few others be shaded in PDP colours. But which ones? Beginning with the 12 Northern states that Buhari won in 2011 PDP map plotters could optimistically change Kaduna to PDP colours in order to please Vice President Namadi Sambo. They would also project that at least two of the PDP governors of Katsina, Gombe, Jigawa, Niger and Kebbi could deliver their states. I can see one PDP chieftain, Ali Modu Sheriff, strenuously arguing that Borno should be repainted in PDP colours though Buhari got 82% of the votes there in 2011 under Sheriff’s nose as the state’s ANPP governor. The Boko Haram imbroglio could easily notch that margin up to 90%.
Next to be mapped are the seven Northern states that Jonathan won in 2011. All seven of them had PDP governors in 2011 but two of them, Kwara and Nasarawa now have APC governors. PDP map plotters will not concede that those changes will affect it. Nor will they concede that trouble in their Plateau, Adamawa and Taraba chapters could cost them any of those states. Next in the exercise are South East and South-South. Without even a pause PDP plotters will paint all eleven states in their colours, as indeed they must because the loss of any of these states will imperil Jonathan’s re-election chances. Especially Rivers, which is the largest of them all.
When it comes time to paint the South West states, expect to see Yoruba PDP chieftains such as Bode George and Buruji Kashamu throwing lace agbada around as they argue for wholesale repainting of the zone in PDP colours. Jonathan himself is not so sure, reason why he has been running from one oba’s palace to another in the last six weeks. At best he might agree to paint Ondo, Ekiti and Edo in PDP colours and paint others as toss ups. All in all, PDP would optimistically project itself to win 24 states: the seven Northern states that Jonathan won in 2011; three Northern states that they will price out of Buhari’s 12 states of 2011; all 5 Igbo states, all six Niger Delta states plus at least three Yoruba states.
All in all, APC will project itself to win 25 states and PDP will also project itself to win 25 states. Unfortunately there are 36 states in Nigeria, not 50. Someone is bound to be bitterly disappointed on Saturday evening when unofficial results start to trickle in through mobile phones, Facebook and Twitter.