Unreliable, non-existent electricity barrier to electric vehicles’ adoption – Study

A new study has revealed that electric vehicles (EVs) could become economically competitive in many African countries well before 2040. The new study was led by researchers at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in collaboration with African universities. This is coming despite the slow pace of adoption of EVs in many African […]

A new study has revealed that electric vehicles (EVs) could become economically competitive in many African countries well before 2040.

The new study was led by researchers at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in collaboration with African universities.

This is coming despite the slow pace of adoption of EVs in many African countries especially Nigeria.

While many companies have churned out electric vehicles in Nigeria, the pace of adoption has remained abysmally poor amidst fear of infrastructures especially the charging solutions.

The study under review published in Nature Energy, challenges long-held assumptions that Africa will remain dominated by petrol and diesel vehicles through mid-century. Instead, it finds that when electric vehicles are paired with solar-powered off-grid charging systems, they can already make financial sense in several parts of the continent – particularly for two-wheelers and small vehicles.

With Africa’s vehicle population expected to double by 2050 – faster than any other continent – the study argues that the real question is no longer whether mobility will grow, but what kind of mobility Africa will adopt.

“Many models have assumed that combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate in Africa through the mid-century,” said lead author Bessie Noll, a senior researcher at ETH Zurich.

He added, “Our findings show that, under certain conditions, e-mobility is feasible sooner than many people think.”

A central innovation in the research is its focus on off-grid solar charging. In many African countries, unreliable or non-existent electricity grids have been seen as a major barrier to EV adoption. To address this, the team analysed 52 African countries and over 2,000 locations, modelling scenarios where EVs are charged using dedicated solar systems combined with stationary batteries.

According to the study, a compact solar installation is sufficient to power a small car driving about 50 kilometres per day, while the cost of charging represents only a small fraction of total vehicle ownership costs. For electric scooters and motorbikes, the economics are already highly attractive in many locations.

“Even we were surprised by the results,” said Christian Moretti, second lead author and research scientist at PSI. “These systems are significantly cheaper than is often assumed, and in many contexts they are even more reliable than the existing electrical grid.”

Falling prices of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles – particularly affordable models from China – are accelerating this trend.

The researchers stress that Africa is not a single market. The pace of EV adoption will vary widely depending on financing conditions, infrastructure and policy frameworks.

The study divided Africa into nine zones based on cost competitiveness and analysed six vehicle segments, including small and large two-wheelers, small to large cars and minibuses, across the periods 2025, 2030 and 2040. In a growing number of countries, battery electric vehicles already show a total cost of ownership advantage over petrol and diesel alternatives.

 

Financing as biggest barrier

Perhaps the most important conclusion of the study is that financing, not technology, is the main obstacle to EV adoption in Africa.

Electric vehicles require higher upfront investment, and in many African countries, loans are expensive due to perceived risks. This significantly slows adoption, even where EVs are cheaper to run over their lifetime.

“If financing costs can be reduced, the transition will accelerate dramatically,” Noll said.

The researchers point to options such as government guarantees, innovative financing models and international support mechanisms. They also highlight the potential for local assembly, new services and job creation along the EV value chain.