Was Jonathan lucky to lose the election?

Also important on how history will judge him is, in Nigeria-speak, ‘the situation on the ground’ at the time of his hand over. It has long been known that the sharp decline in the price of crude would impact negatively on the country’s oil-dependent economy. However in a polarized and highly politically charged environment, one’s […]

Also important on how history will judge him is, in Nigeria-speak, ‘the situation on the ground’ at the time of his hand over. It has long been known that the sharp decline in the price of crude would impact negatively on the country’s oil-dependent economy. However in a polarized and highly politically charged environment, one’s evaluation of the performance of the economy depended largely on where one stood in the political divide.  For instance while the former CBN Governor Professor Chukwuma Soludo scored the management of the economy an ‘F’, Dr Okonjo Iweala, the Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, projected that the economy would grow at 4.8 per cent this year “much better than many other oil-producing countries” which are similarly hit by the collapse in crude prices.
In the hype and hoopla of the electioneering period, it was difficult to know what to believe – the excessively pessimistic scenario painted by the opposition parties or the optimistic one painted by the government in power. In such a politicized environment, people tend to believe only what validates where they stand in the political divide.
With several state governments now openly saying they are no longer able to pay workers’ salaries and queues in petrol stations stretching from Jericho to Kafanchan, even Jonathan’s ardent supporters are beginning to ‘forget’ Jonathan’s trumpeted successes in such areas as fighting Ebola, fertilizer distribution in the agricultural sector and the relaxing of our political space. The ‘situation on the ground’ is that of rumblings in the pockets and dining rooms and fears of looming liquidity crunch.  As if to validate expectations of worse things to come, Dr Okonjo Iweala also began to sound downbeat and was recently quoted as saying: “We have serious challenges. Things have been tough since the beginning of the year and they are likely to remain so till the end of the year.”  Indications are that things will get tougher, bringing in memories of the IMF/World Bank supported structural adjustment programmes of the 1980s and early 1990s, which helped to pauperize the country’s middle class.
Add to the above what Americans call ‘second term curse’ –  the tendency for the second terms of US presidents to be less successful than their first terms, (or to be marred by scandals and untoward events) and you will understand why Jonathan may be lucky to have lost the election.  The only Nigerian President who has had a second term in office – former President Olusegun Obasanjo – also had a ‘second term curse’ –  his epic media battle with Vice President Atiku and his third term agenda. What would have been Jonathan’s ‘second term curse’?
An interesting question is how the apparently worsening perception of the ‘situation on the ground’ will affect the incoming President? It is double-edged sword. On the one hand, Buhari will have to spend huge amount of time trying to ‘stabilize’ things – before unveiling his own agenda and this could affect his ability to achieve tangible results in the crucial first 100 days in office. This may not be helped by the sky-high expectations of his supporters. On the other hand,  because  President Jonathan  is leaving at a time the economic crisis has begun to be felt more menacingly in the pockets and dining tables (with workers being owed salaries even by the federal government and long queues at petrol filling stations), he will also be leaving behind a low bar of expectation. This means therefore that if Buhari, within the first 100 days in office, could just ensure regular payment of salaries or the disappearance of queues in filling stations, it could bolster confidence in his regime.
Jonathan and Buhari: Mismanaging the fragile peace
I received tonnes of comments on the above, with most accusing me of being biased towards the Jonathan administration (one of the hazards of column writing, lol). I am grateful for all the comments but space will only permit me to publish two, which I consider representative of the comments received.
‘Dear Sir,
I had earlier felt like ignoring your above write up, which to all intents and purposes is meant to blackmail GMB against probing the outgoing failed regime of Jonathan.
2. May I ask, -Why are you afraid or whom are you afraid for? It is even quite disingenuous and unintelligent for you to postulate that 40% voters that did not vote for GMB would think that they are being alienated. It is, to say the least very patronising. Who are the 40%ters? The Igbo people? No, the people in the S/E? Oh no. People in the S/S or perhaps the combination of S/E & S/S? By the way, is NNPC composed of only the people from that part of the country? Even, if all the Ministers of the affected sector to be probed in this process, are to come from the S/E & S/S geopolitical zone, how does it affect the common people of the zone, if not for those of you, still nursing the Biafran agenda? Even then, if not for nepotism & impunity of Jonathan’s government, why should his regime concentrate the most critical sectors of the economy only onto the hands of people from that area? You can’t eat your cake and have it at the same time. If those who looted the NNPC or any other sector dry, are to come from the Eastern Region, cheap blackmail should not be employed to shield the thieves from the arms of the law.
3. Your recourse to mobilising your ethnic stock to revolt if probes are carried out begs the issue. Change is what we are asking GMB to carry out. And for him to succeed in carrying out this onerous task, he has to before then, sweep clean all the mosquitoes, cockroaches, snakes & all those parasitic characters like you. GMB is a man of class, man of integrity and man with abundant courage. You may not understand why he should announce his intents, because by your orientation, you belong to the group of deceits, who usually don’t mean what they say. Sorry, your ilk must be exposed and cleansed from this country.
4. To tell you as matter of fact, millions of people that voted for GMB did it because of our belief that he has the qualities to carry out that change. So when he started singing that repugnant song of his ‘drawing the line’, which debased people like you will not like to hear, millions of us started getting jittery. It is therefore with great joy that, we received that pronouncement that NNPC would be probed, which ironically got you and your ilk, so agitated. It is indeed the elixir we needed to re-jig our trust belief and conviction in him…
10. All your continuous warped, wayward and expired analysis therefore has no bearing on this year’s elections. The earlier you accept this fact, the better for you. Or else, your so called US guys whom you have been feeding with falsehood all these while, to the extent that they predicted PDP victory based upon your senseless projections, will soon come to terms, that you are fake and  they will look for an authentic intellectual that knows the country’s socio-cultural, economic & political dynamics.  I am indeed sensing that, perhaps, that infamous projection that Naija would disintegrate in 2015 by one US organization could have relied on contributions from people like you, particularly as I can see that you are really in love with this your so called ‘instilling fear strategy’. There is also this palpable fear that Atiku, who thought you were an intellectual and brought you from the US (or is it the UK?), would start regretting ever meeting you. He will realise that you are nothing but a fake diehard Biafran,- that is if he has not thrown you out already.
Muhammad bn Umar (Baa-saani Baa-dimo), email: [email protected]

‘It is my sincere hope and pleasure that you are doing well. I must confess that you are such an intelligent writer and an essayist. Your writings in the Daily Trust newspaper have been admirably instructive and informative. Your systematic, coherent, logical and thoughtful essays have always kept me engrossed each time I get my own copy of the Daily Trust newspaper. To be honest with you sir, I have started having an interest in the Daily Trust newspapers because of your insightful essays. I admire your sense of logicality and coherence of thought. I have equally read other pieces by other columnists like Femi Adesina, Dan Agbese, Tatalo Alamo, Mahmud Jega and a host of other writers. Thursday has almost become one of my best days because I always long to read your thesis. Bravo to you sir. Soar on! May the Good Lord in whom we live and move and have our being, bless you in all your routines and keep you in His love and providence. Amen!
Rev Fr Isaac a Vasumu, Catholic Diocese of Maiduguri, email:  [email protected]’