We may have to return to the drawing table

The North-South division seems alive and well, and not about to disappear anytime soon. To muddle up the waters further, whatever ultimately gets submitted to the President he would struggle to make anything out of it for the simple reason that he has constitutional limitations as to how to proceed. The National Assembly would itself […]

The North-South division seems alive and well, and not about to disappear anytime soon. To muddle up the waters further, whatever ultimately gets submitted to the President he would struggle to make anything out of it for the simple reason that he has constitutional limitations as to how to proceed. The National Assembly would itself find it difficult to find an acceptable way out because the expectations are mutually conflicting even at that level. We may well ask: would the outcomes substantially influence 2015 and beyond? Most likely, and these are the inevitable challenges we may have to face, and must also try to resolve.
The dominant narrative popularized by the media over the years is simple. The North (however it gets defined) has dominated an imperfect Federation, bequeathed to us by the British after they manipulated the census figures and the constitution in the North’s favour, and, since Independence, this North has cornered political power, and is responsible for all the ills around us, especially our mismanagement of public affairs and our endemic corruption. On top of it all, the North has been the sole (or largest) beneficiary of the oil wealth yet it produces nothing. So, to check this parasitic North and bring an end to all our misery, we need a new constitution, one that would put this North in its proper place. The present Constitution is faulty mainly, as this selective perception puts it, because it was not produced by the “ethnic nationalities” making up Nigeria but by a Military regime. Now that there is President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in power the opportunity must not be allowed to pass.
Beside all the other falsehoods and myths in this narrative the current problem (of a Conference about to come apart?) arises from the simple fact that those who sold the idea of a National Conference to the President had no answers to the issue of modalities. How do we select a truly representative group to write this new constitution, and ensure that the North is not allowed to dominate? Does the current Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria allow for this round-about way of replacing it with a new one? How can a lop-sided hotchpotch of hand-picked lot, with 192 from the North and 300 from the South, representing diverse interests, arrive at a decision binding on 170 million of us, who never elected them in the first place? In the end, I believe the President was blackmailed into going along by a few who believe they have the oil and, if we refuse to go along with what they want, they can always threaten to go their separate way. Well, the jamboree is about to end, and it does not look as anyone would be happy with the outcomes.
However, I am not really going to focus on those problems because they are minor compared to some of the other issues I believe we must subsequently address. Of these, one that keeps on pestering me is an existential one are we better off as one country or should we just allow things to continue as they are with all the possibilities of an imminent break up staring at us. Even if, like me, we believe in the unity and territorial integrity of our Federal Republic, we still have to ask ourselves if we are going about it the right way.
Nothing brings this out as starkly as the fact that the North went to this so-called National Conference without any agenda whatsoever. In any association or negotiation, people must come with four things: who they are, what they want, what they are offering, and an exit strategy (a way out, in case things do not work out).
Having attended too many serious (and not so serious) meetings it is clear to me that the North is still struggling with the identity question. We know we are a people with the largest land mass in this country. We know we have the highest population, even if one excludes those that increasingly see themselves as really not belonging, or who do not want to belong. We have certain values and institutions that we believe would benefit the nation and we are essentially peaceful and law abiding (even with the Boko Haram and the occasional “ethnic” or herdsmen/farmers clashes). At one time, when trading across the Sahara was the only game in town, we were well ahead. When everything changed, and progress came with colonialism, access to the sea became more important and we became a hinterland from where the white man extracted raw materials to the coast, and subsequently to the imperial metropolis. Even then we held our grounds and were able to build and prosper from taxing agriculture, animal husbandry, trade, crafts and solid minerals. With the arrival of oil, everything changed and we became dependent on revenue handed out from Lagos and, much later, from Abuja. Climate change and poor land management, institutional collapse, corruption and simple incompetence all added to our dependent, unequal and slow development. Our social institutions became more fragile and we found ourselves at the mercy of others, offering little and expecting much.
It seems to me that for this federation to survive and prosper all the component units, especially the North, must go back to the drawing table, define who they are, work out what they want, what each has to offer, and plan how to harness human and material resources to solve specific problems and then, through our elected representatives (even if we are not happy with them), reconvene after the Elections in 2015 to honestly rethink and agree how to move forward, together preferably, and create a brighter future. This current conference was rushed, haphazardly composed, and mischievously designed to raise false hopes.
My advice to Northern delegates: do not bother to sign on the dotted lines if you feel you are being pushed towards an unacceptable agenda, being blackmailed, insulted or in any way harassed. It was not your show really, and the composition was skewed against you ab initio. Just walk out. Let the National Assembly sort out the mess. Do not succumb to blackmail. Form a pressure group, political association or whatever and get your respective states to follow the example of the Western states. Draw up a solid Regional Plan first. People who want to negotiate should come from a position of strength. All of us should struggle to agree on who we are, what we represent, how to build our respective villages, towns and states. It is the only way to build a solid nation.