What did they think?

The world is undergoing the type of radical geopolitical realignment that happens with the ending of an era and beginning of another. With the Global South asserting itself and demanding a voice in the global scheme of things, a lot of dust is being kicked up and the multipliers are going to be profound. Another […]

The world is undergoing the type of radical geopolitical realignment that happens with the ending of an era and beginning of another. With the Global South asserting itself and demanding a voice in the global scheme of things, a lot of dust is being kicked up and the multipliers are going to be profound. Another “Scramble for Africa” is clearly in the offing given the untapped potential of this New World.

The “Francophone Spring” is an instructive testament to this radical change, with former French vassals escaping its orbit and charting a new course of self-determination.

Ambitious multinational industrialists and politicians have spared no efforts in the past two decades looking for ways to establish international competitiveness and growth in Africa through the identification of products and production systems that can underpin rapid development of a competitive economy.

Studies have shown that opportunities abound for farmers and IT entrepreneurs in Africa to gain international competitiveness, especially in light of projected stronger world markets for agricultural commodities over the long term and the growing ubiquity and role of information technology in the agricultural value chain. This provides reasons for optimism regarding the future prospects for agriculture as a major source of inclusive growth in many parts of Africa. This is the Africa that is up for grabs.

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For the most part, we have the technological revolution that is still afoot to either blame or thank for these new narratives. With the revolution taking its course, the “Old Guard” global power politics is being overthrown, as their stranglehold on global pop culture and way of thinking has been eroded while the liberalisation of the mass media and the dissemination of information kick into top gear. As they manoeuvre to finally wake up, Africans are becoming more politically and culturally aware than their peers in the affluent Global North.

The tumultuous mass uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya a decade ago have seized the attention of media analysts who have characterised these as “Arab revolutions”, a perspective given weight by popular demonstrations in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria and elsewhere. However, what has been given less attention were the concurrent uprisings in Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Eswatini, Uganda, Saharawi Republic and Zimbabwe.

The uprisings across Africa and in the Middle East, are the result of common experiences of decades of declining living standards, mass unemployment, dispossession and impoverishment of the majority by the plutocratic few. What did they think will happen?

And now with the “Francophone Spring” sweeping across West and Central Africa, another dimension is being added to the question of where Africa intends to place itself as it finds its footing. Almost all African countries with the notable exception of Nigeria, and perhaps Kenya, are turning their backs on the West. This is disconcerting reality for Nigeria, given the crises wracking the nation on both sides of the Niger.

Military coups were a staple in parts of Africa in the decades after independence. But after a period of relative democratic stability, they are back in the Sahel – and with a bang! What is going on? History. That is what is going on.

The takeover in Gabon was the latest in a string of coups that have taken place in recent years coming just a month after soldiers took control in neighbouring Niger. There were two in Burkina Faso in 2022 as well as failed coup attempts in Guinea Bissau, The Gambia and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe. The third coup in Burkina Faso brought the bombastic and popular Capt. Ibrahim Traore into power.

In the last three years, there were six coup attempts in Africa, four of them successful. Two years ago, a senior AU official, Moussa Faki Mahamat, expressed concern about “the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government”. During his first year in office, President Tinubu decided to pick up the gauntlet, leading a democratic counterattack but failed. A study by two US researchers, Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne, has identified over 200 such attempts in Africa since the 1950s. About half of these were successful.

 The overall number of coup attempts in Africa remained fairly consistent at an average of around four a year between 1960 and 2000. This is not a surprise though, given the instability many countries experienced in the years after independence. African countries have had conditions common for coups, like poverty and poor performance in terms of governance.

When a country has one coup, that’s often a harbinger for more coups. We have seen this in the case of Gabon, where a coup attempt against Ali Bongo, who took over from his father in 2009, precipitated more and more until one succeeded. In Burkina Faso, Capt. Traore is said to have withered over a dozen coup/assassination attempts since taking over.

This will be the case until there is economic stability and certainty for the popular majority and that has been acutely lacking… So what did they think will happen? Answering this question must be a source of never-ending nightmares for civilian politicians in Nigeria and Kenya particularly.

If yesterday’s coup did not work, more attempts should be expected. Gabon’s Ali Bongo was the typical African ruler. Given African cultures and their histories, African governments as well as their resources were effectively the fiefdoms of the ruling families. Ali Bongo succeeded his own father, and his own son was manoeuvering to succeed him. The election that spelt his doom and its outcome must have been beyond bonkers. And that is usually the sad end tyrants, who just take and keep taking until they take too much, should expect.

Nature is a closed system of cause and effect. These two are directly proportional to one another, and any disruption will bring forth a balancing act that will decimate one end of the loop for the benefit of the other. President Tinubu does not need to grandstand and rattle the sabre to get things back in order within ECOWAS. That was the thematic messaging behind Eedris Abdulkarim’s banned “Tell Your Papa” track.

The only sure way to arrest the spiral Tinubu seems dead scared of is to address causes not effects. President Tinubu can provide an even more impactful leadership by leading the charge to fix the “African usual suspects” – the rule of law, sustainable livelihoods, social services, human rights, et al.