What if the PDP had won?

Don’t bet on Anthony Anenih, Edwin Clark and the even Ibrahim Dankwambo. The PDP would probably still warehouse the South East and South-South elites, along with a handful of faithful, too dazed or too heavily loaded to swim to safety, at least for now. The leaking umbrella can only shelter a few. The self-proclaimed largest […]

Don’t bet on Anthony Anenih, Edwin Clark and the even Ibrahim Dankwambo. The PDP would probably still warehouse the South East and South-South elites, along with a handful of faithful, too dazed or too heavily loaded to swim to safety, at least for now. The leaking umbrella can only shelter a few. The self-proclaimed largest party in Africa is proving to be without any solid foundation. It promised to be around for sixty years; it seems destined to end in sixteen. Apparently it was built on hype and lucre and cannot survive without both.
PDP’s slogan is “Power!” with a promise to guarantee cool shade under a shady umbrella. It represented the coming together of elites from all parts of the country, who remained convinced that by capturing the Nigerian state and its institutions of coercion and largesse, they would be able to retain power come rain, come shine. On April 28, they faced a tsunami of “Change” which Buhari and the APC represent. Almost every ranking member is rushing to decamp, while their followers are either refugees in Dubai, or IDPs in Abuja, Lagos and the oily creeks.
As the opposition celebrates its victory, the remnants of the PDP elite (those still standing) are busy castigating it of triumphalism, which seems to me rather too cheap an attack. If “triumphalism” means “excessive celebration of the defeat of one’s enemies or opponents” then I think it is a misplaced charge. After the lies, insults, and dirty campaigns; after the stupid assaults on our collective intelligence and sensitivities as well as the rabidly xenophobic attack on all of us who refused to swallow their lies, and “we no dey like dem for dat side”; and after narrowly escaping the civil war they seemed to be recklessly sparking, no amount of celebration is disproportionate or unreasonable. It was a relief that the PDP lost, and that the bloodshed they were hoping for was mercifully averted.
But what if the PDP had won the elections of March 28 and April 12? How would Femi Fani-Kayode, Doyin Okupe, Edwin Clark, Patience “Stone Dem” Jonathan, Olisa Metuh, Ayodele Fayose, Ibrahim “Kill the Cockroaches” Shema and Asari Dokubo be celebrating? With decorum, prayers and calls to unity? Would the PDP and its governments been quietly planning for greater “transformation”, mass employment and more inclusive growth and deeper democracy? Would they have suddenly converted the NTA and AIT into Gowon-type “No victor, No vanquished” mouthpieces? I doubt that very much. Frankly speaking, the APC has been very mature in its celebration.
Anyway, the PDP did not win so let us not dwell on what did not happen. Such “what if” speculations are termed “Counterfactuals” by historians, and hardly add anything to our understanding. They may get us into speculating on the myriad possibilities, the many turns the past could have taken. They may help free us from seeing history from the straitjacket of determinism; help us to appreciate the role of individuals as agents. The PDP lost, and to me that should be the focus. Could they have done better with a different candidate besides GEJ? What if they had approached the campaign differently, with decorum and civility or with different, more refined and more responsible actors? I doubt if the outcome would have been any different. But then we can never know. It’s mere speculation, not history or social science.
Personally I would hesitate to make too much of great men, or great women, as sole agents for change of historical directions or timelines. Societies are moved by both actors and factors. At any given conjuncture it is the combination and interaction of these human actors (some more outstanding, some more symbolic) and the larger social forces that determine the eventual outcome. The PDP was a product of its conjuncture (time to get rid of the military), and then became a victim of its composition and its greed and conflicting interests. It was time for it to go, and thus it was defeated. Nigerians were tired, full stop.
If they had won at the polls it would have been the end of any serious opposition, at least for a decade. The triumph of impunity, ineptitude, cluelessness, institutionalised conflicts, “state capture” and banditry would have been complete. Even if they subsequently manage to defeat Boko Haram, the seeds of division would have been watered and fertilised enough at the rate they were going. Corruption would have finished the rest. Thank God the majority decided to use their vote patriotically.
Worst of all, GMB would have been reluctant to contest again. He alone cannot change Nigeria, or solve all our problems. Yet he was critical to the defeat of the Jonathan Cabal and remains critical to our immediate future. When the right actors and factors converge at the appropriate time change is possible.
Which leaves us with two sets of questions: one, should we celebrate the eventual demise of PDP? And can the APC, and the electorate that brought it to power, base all their hopes on one individual, GMB? The answer to both is a very big NO. On the first issue we hope the PDP survives. Every democracy requires a credible opposition, and for now it is the only contraption big enough to offer that, if it can transcend its illusions of grandeur, its arrogant pretences to impunity, and its’ penchant for corruption and lawlessness.
As for relying on one individual, it is really up to all of us to allow that to happen. GMB is not just one individual, yes. He has a deputy who seems to clearly complement the symbolism, the push and our hope. They are in a party that has successfully sold the agenda for CHANGE to Nigerians. We must hold them to their promises. Unemployment and lack of opportunities were correctly held to be the main causes of our poverty, misery and hopelessness. Corruption is seen as one of the major reason why nothing works. Crime, insecurity, insurgency and communal conflicts were adding to our burdens. We were looking for a viable alternative and Buhari emerged as a symbol of that, and was seen as a vehicle for its achievement. His lifestyle, history and experiences seem to have prepared him to take up all these challenges. Yes he is only human, and yes some around him before, and those joining him and his party now, may not inspire as much trust and confidence as he does. But if we support him he can start the job of ending corruption and insurgency, rebuilding trust, restoring law and order, providing power, railroads and other physical infrastructure. Our social services have collapsed. We can all help him create jobs that pay decent wages.
We must all remain vigilant, and make sure that no group, original members or new converts to APC, are able to capture state institutions for their exclusive benefits. In all these, Nigeria still needs a vibrant opposition. Even the PDP would have a role, one it would not have given us if it had won the elections instead. But they must wake up to the fact that this is a brand new day.