What is Nigeria doing with her growing population?

The global population surpassed eight  billion in 2023, yet the way nations harness this human potential vary starkly. India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, with 1.43 billion people. At the same time, China’s population—after decades of restrictive policies—has begun to decline, projected to fall below one billion by 2100. This demographic […]

The global population surpassed eight  billion in 2023, yet the way nations harness this human potential vary starkly. India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, with 1.43 billion people. At the same time, China’s population—after decades of restrictive policies—has begun to decline, projected to fall below one billion by 2100. This demographic shift underscores a critical divergence: while China leverages advanced infrastructure, technology, and human capital to sustain growth, nations like Nigeria struggle with systemic challenges that stifle progress.

China’s response to its ageing population and declining fertility (1.2 births per woman) has been to double down on technological supremacy and infrastructure. The country dominates sectors like AI, renewable energy, and high-speed rail, supported by an increasingly skilled workforce in STEM fields. This shift reflects a broader recognition that human capital—not just population size—drives long-term prosperity.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, exemplifies the dangers of unmanaged demographics. With 45 per cent of its population under 15, the country faces youth unemployment, inflation exceeding 34 per cent, and a worsening security crisis.  Politicians vying for office often prioritise power over policies, leaving human capital development—such as education and healthcare—chronically underfunded. As insecurity displaces 1.3 million in the north, the link between governance failures and demographic stagnation becomes undeniable.

Liberal economists advocate for consumption-driven growth to counter populist rhetoric, arguing that empowered middle classes fuel sustainable economies. However, this model falters without equitable access to education and healthcare. In the U.S., Trump-era policies prioritise protectionism over human capital, exacerbating disparities. Conversely, Germany and France allocate over 11 per cent of GDP to public health, fostering productive, stable workforces. The lesson is clear: populism thrives on division, but lasting growth requires investment in people.

Nigeria’s local elections reveal a grim reality: governance is often reduced to a contest for power, not progress. Despite a youth bulge, fewer than 20 per cent of Nigerian women participate in the labour force, and 90 per cent of employment remains informal.

The World Bank estimates that every dollar invested in education yields $10 in economic benefits. China’s emphasis on STEM and India’s burgeoning tech sector highlight this, while Nigeria’s underfunded schools and healthcare perpetuate cycles of poverty.

The stakes are universal. India must bridge its north-south divide, China must sustain innovation without stifling dissent, and Nigeria needs leaders who view the population as an asset, not a burden.

The question remains: Will we harness our growing population as an engine of inclusive growth or let them languish as symbols of missed potential? The answer lies in governance, which values people over power.

 

Moshood, Oshunfurewa Adebola & Aremu Lukman Umor wrote from Lagos